With His Hot Start, Bryan Reynolds May Be Hitting His Way Out of Pittsburgh

Oneil Cruz’s fractured fibula is the largest story surrounding the Pirates. On the optimistic facet, the return of Andrew McCutchen to the fold is neat, and Tuesday night time’s walk-off residence run by Ji Hwan Bae was fairly cool. To those eyes, nevertheless, probably the most noteworthy factor about Pittsburgh to this point — even past the truth that the staff’s 7–4 begin is its finest since 2018 — has been the torrid play of Bryan Reynolds. The 28-year-old outfielder has been the one of many recreation’s hottest hitters, and he’s finished it as progress towards a contract extension has floor to a halt simply when it appeared {that a} deal to maintain him in black and gold was inside attain.

Reynolds ended final weekend as one in every of seven gamers who had collected hits in each recreation this season (José Abreu, José Ramírez, Nolan Arenado, Randy Arozarena, Bryson Stott, and Jordan Walker had been the others). He and Abreu each went hitless in Monday night time’s Pirates-Astros contest, and by the shut of play Tuesday, solely the streaks of Stott and Walker remained intact. Nonetheless, season-opening hitting streaks come and go fairly rapidly; of extra curiosity is that Reynolds has been placing up eye-opening numbers. Via Tuesday, he’s hitting .356/.367/.778, main the NL in slugging share and homers (5) and rating fifth in WAR (0.7) and wRC+ (184). Thoughts you, these numbers seemed much more spectacular earlier than his 1-for-8 on Monday and Tuesday nights, however the sudden itch to put in writing about Adam Duvall, an excellent hotter hitter on this younger season, happening with a wrist damage bought in my manner.

For Duvall, Reynolds, and everybody else, we’re nonetheless in Small Pattern Theater territory, however as with the Crimson Sox slugger, some underlying numbers have me questioning if we’re seeing actual enhancements to his recreation. For starters, like Duvall, he’s lower his strikeout price dramatically: Final 12 months he struck out 23% of the time, and for his profession he’s at 21.5%, however this 12 months, that’s right down to 10.2%. Provided that strikeout charges stabilize round 60 PA and that Reynolds is at 49, this might wind up being noteworthy, although in contrast to Duvall, his swinging-strike price hasn’t fallen fairly so dramatically, going from 12.9% final 12 months to 11.9% this 12 months. His 31.1% chase price is down 4.5 factors from final 12 months, when he tried to hack his manner out of a gradual begin, and is simply half a degree decrease than his profession mark, besides, he’s strolling in simply 4.1% of his plate appearances, lower than half of his 9.7% profession mark.

All of this interprets to extra contact than normal for Reynolds, and he’s benefiting from it. Critically: He’s hitting the ball within the air far more than ever, and his common exit velocity, barrel price, and hard-hit price are past something within the Bryan Reynolds catalogue.

Once more, we’re not but on the level of those stats stabilizing; by way of Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton (whom I command you to learn), exit velocity stabilizes round 40 batted ball occasions and barrel price at 50 BBE, and groundball, fly ball, and hard-hit charges accomplish that at 80 BBE. However even when Reynolds, who leads the majors with 12 barrels, didn’t add one other one over his subsequent eight batted balls, his 24% barrel price could be greater than each certified 2022 hitter apart from Aaron Decide. As it’s, his 28.6% barrel price is fifth amongst present qualifiers, and his .896 xSLG and .553 xwOBA each lead the majors:

Right here’s the place Reynolds is when it comes to rolling xSLG:

The query underlying all of that is whether or not Reynolds’ scorching begin is an illustration that he can get again to approximating his 2021 type, when he hit .302/.390/.522 for a 141 wRC+ and was price 6.2 WAR, or whether or not final 12 months’s good-not-great .262/.345/.461 (125 wRC+) and a couple of.8 WAR is the brand new norm. That query clearly has ramifications relating to his future, whether or not it’s in Pittsburgh or elsewhere.

Recall that in December, Reynolds, who has two remaining years of membership management after this season, requested a commerce after the Pirates reportedly supplied him a six-year, $80 million extension, over $50 million wanting the eight-year, $134 million deal he was looking for. Dan Szymborski recapped all of that in February and supplied a six-year ZiPS projection for 2024–29: $95 million, a determine weighed down by Reynolds’ three remaining arbitration years (together with this one), the truth that he’ll be heading into his age-31 season as a free agent, and his subpar defensive metrics (he had -14 DRS, -6 RAA, and -2.7 UZR as a middle fielder final 12 months). Dan additionally famous that limiting the defensive enter to RAA as a middle fielder added one other $25 million to his projected worth over that span, pushing his valuation into the ballpark of what Reynolds sought.

Simply earlier than the common season started, the 2 sides drew nearer to an eight-year, $106.75 million deal — that was together with his $6.75 million salaries for 2023 and ’24 — however hit a snag over Reynolds’ need for an opt-out clause after the fourth 12 months (2026), which means that the Pirates would acquire just one extra 12 months of management if he had been to train that choice. With the mushy deadline of Opening Day now having handed, that’s as far the dialog has gone.

Reynolds is tearing the duvet off the ball and in addition taking part in left area about twice as usually as middle (65 innings within the former, 32 within the latter up to now). His ZiPS rest-of-season projection for 3.5 WAR would put him at a complete of 4.2, just a little under the midway level between his final two seasons however nearer to All-Star caliber, that whereas taking part in for simply $6.75 million. Right here’s a take a look at his preseason ZiPS percentile projection, based mostly on 622 PA:

Given the enhance of his scorching begin, Reynolds may very well be headed towards one thing between his sixtieth and seventieth percentiles; my back-of-the-envelope math places him at a 137 wRC+ together with his rest-of-season ZiPS. Touchdown someplace in there would clearly make for a rosier long-term projection.

All of which is to say that each Reynolds’ inventory and his price ticket are at the moment on the rise because of this scorching begin, and whereas there are actually groups on the market keen to fulfill his long-term monetary needs, the Pirates’ willingness to get to his stage is in query; their observe report in such issues is actually worthy of skepticism even given how shut the 2 sides look like. If this present alternative passes and not using a deal coming collectively, Reynolds might be hitting himself out of Pittsburgh, simply at a time the staff is exhibiting indicators of life.