Why Has No One Signed Jurickson Profar Yet?

Let’s speak about free agent outfielders. Practically each workforce might use one, both to serve in a beginning function or to supply an improve over the gamers who’re presently fourth or fifth on the depth chart. Unsurprisingly, reigning AL MVP Aaron Choose took dwelling the most important contract of any outfielder this winter, however 11 inked common annual values of no less than $10 million. Together with quite a lot of part-time and platoon gamers signed for smaller sums, almost each massive league-caliber outfielder has discovered a house for the season. A lot of the remaining free brokers, like Alex Dickerson and Jackie Bradley Jr., mission to be round substitute degree for 2023. However there’s an outlier, somebody who simply posted a career-best 2.5 WAR and was projected by our readers for a three-year, $30 million contract – Jurickson Profar. No different unsigned participant is projected to earn even a 3rd of that, however as groups begin to finalize their rosters throughout spring coaching, Profar nonetheless doesn’t know what uniform he’ll be taking part in in come Opening Day.

Getting into the offseason, we had Profar pegged because the Thirty sixth-best free agent within the class after his $10 million mutual choice with the Padres was declined. Neighboring hitters on that listing embrace Michael Brantley, Brandon Drury, and Josh Bell; all three have signed and can earn a mixed $37 million in 2023. So what makes groups hesitant so as to add Profar to their roster?

Let’s evaluate him to the aforementioned trio of Brantley, Drury, and Bell. In actual fact, Profar is sort of similar to Brantley and Bell, who each play a place down the defensive spectrum. Each are additionally significantly higher hitters than Profar. Brantley’s wRC+ hasn’t sat beneath 120 in 5 years, whereas Bell’s mark sits at 121 because the starting of 2021. Then again, Profar’s 110 wRC+ final 12 months was his highest in a full season, and his profession mark of 94 is considerably worse than that of Brantley or Bell. Different outfielders like J.D. Martinez and Michael Conforto additionally signed in that value vary. In different phrases, if a workforce was on the lookout for an on a regular basis left fielder who wouldn’t break the financial institution, Profar in all probability wouldn’t have been their first name.

If groups weren’t serious about Profar in an on a regular basis function, then what about bringing him on as a part-time participant? Whereas Profar was completely a left fielder final 12 months, he has vital expertise in any respect 4 infield positions. Certainly a league-average bat you may plug and play at 5 totally different positions can be helpful to a contending workforce. Final season’s Phillies almost gained the World Sequence regardless of letting Didi Gregorius (58 wRC+) and Johan Camargo (74 wRC+) mix for nearly 400 plate appearances, and almost each different workforce has deficiencies no less than someplace on the sphere. Drury’s two-year, $17 million contract with the Angels exhibits the worth groups place in a multi-positional talent set. Regardless of getting into 2022 with simply 0.6 profession WAR, Drury skilled an influence breakout, clubbing 28 homers and accruing 3 WAR regardless of not having a devoted beginning place. As an alternative, he took over wherever he was wanted, showing at 5 totally different positions because the Reds and Padres did every thing they may to maximise his presence within the batting order.

So why did the Angels select Drury over Profar? Projection techniques view them equally (each have a 104 Steamer wRC+), and whereas Los Angeles might have merely had a choice for an influence hitter, Drury’s talent on the infield undoubtedly outpaces Profar’s. Regardless of needing to hold round a suitcase of various gloves, Drury measured in with a +1 RAA across the diamond. Profar’s final prolonged stretch of play on the infield got here in 2019, when he was Oakland’s on a regular basis second baseman. That didn’t go so nicely, as he completed with a -5 RAA (and an astounding -20 DRS). The earlier season, he cut up time between third base and shortstop with even worse outcomes. Whereas Profar has appreciable expertise at a number of positions, that hasn’t translated to success anytime just lately. And since his transfer to the outfield, he’s slowed down a step each within the discipline and on the basepaths. For the reason that starting of 2021, Profar’s pace has gone from barely above common to a bit beneath, together with his pace down the road worsening by a full grade:

So Profar may not be the man you need filling in all around the discipline when larger high quality defensive choices exist, however the bat remains to be legit, proper? Inferior to full-time starters like Bell and Brantley, however you may definitely carve out a job for Profar the place he generates nicely above-average manufacturing. However possibly not. When the free agent market began to skinny out, Michael Baumann wrote concerning the remaining crop of outfielders, headlined by Profar and longtime Diamondback David Peralta. Peralta’s 104 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR final season had been a bit worse than Profar’s, however that didn’t cease the Dodgers from signing him to a one-year deal. Why? Peralta has a transparent offensive use case in opposition to right-handed pitching: he had a 116 wRC+ in opposition to right-handers final season and has a 121 profession mark. A workforce with the appropriate supplementary items can do extra with 400 plate appearances of Peralta than 600 plate appearances of Profar, who has no vital platoon cut up. It’s additionally necessary to check Profar not simply to hitters as an entire, however to different left fielders. Whereas his 2022 statline can be fairly spectacular for an up-the-middle defender, nook bats are anticipated to shoulder extra of the offensive load and customarily hit higher than the shortstops or middle fielders:

Whereas Profar’s general offensive numbers had been fairly strong, they appear a bit much less spectacular when in comparison with others at a bat-first place, particularly provided that he doesn’t specialize in opposition to both handedness of pitcher. In actual fact, his ZiPS and Steamer projected wRC+ can be beneath league common for left fielders. Mixed together with his -4 RAA on the place, it isn’t arduous to see why a contending workforce wouldn’t need to give 150 begins to somebody who isn’t a plus contributor on both offense or protection. Just lately, I’ve written about gamers like Austin Slater and Dylan Moore, whose mixture of fantastic short-side platoon hitting, strong baserunning, and stellar multi-positional protection makes them extremely helpful in all kinds of conditions. As a consequence of their versatile utilization, they mixed for 4.2 WAR final season in fewer plate appearances than Profar alone. Certainly, Profar profiles as nearly a direct reverse to Slater and Moore. Whereas he doesn’t have any obvious weaknesses in his recreation, his potential workforce additionally doesn’t have a approach to deploy him completely in favorable conditions.

After all, none of that is to say that Profar is a nasty participant. Above-average hitters together with his degree of plate self-discipline don’t develop on bushes, however the truth that he was a tier beneath many different beginning outfielders and doesn’t have the particular talent set wanted to be an efficient function participant probably dropped him on workforce’s precedence lists this offseason. Nonetheless, he’ll nearly definitely be tendered a serious league contract earlier than Opening Day rolls round – of all of the remaining free brokers, his projected 1 WAR ranks second to José Iglesias, whereas his 2022 WAR complete completely laps the competitors. As gamers considered roster locks get injured or carry out poorly throughout spring coaching, groups might give Profar a name. Whereas he might not have been their first choice, he’s removed from their worst.