One 12 months faraway from an offseason that noticed the Padres radically alter the course of their franchise by paring down on payroll and buying and selling famous person Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego as soon as once more finds itself in one thing of a monetary pickle. The membership is anticipated to take care of its payroll degree from 2024 headed into 2025; in keeping with RosterResource, that’s a funds of $169MM and a luxurious tax payroll that falls under the primary threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Attending to that degree of payroll could also be simpler mentioned than finished, nevertheless, because the Padres are presently projected for a payroll slightly below $210MM in 2025 with a luxurious tax payroll of $244M, simply above the primary threshold.
That leaves the membership possible trying to pare down payroll by round $40MM this winter, they usually’ll certainly be hoping to make additions to the crew regardless of these cuts. The Padres might want to add a minimum of one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Stop, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left subject, to not point out the losses of function gamers David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the membership’s lineup at DH and on the bench. In fact, any gamers the membership components methods with to scale back payroll will certainly create new holes that have to be crammed, leaving A.J. Preller and the membership’s entrance workplace in a little bit of a pickle.
One avenue the Padres may use to scale back payroll this 12 months runs via Luis Arraez. The membership acquired the 27-year-old again in Might, and he usually performed pretty properly throughout his time in San Diego this 12 months with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his profession. A contact savant who has managed to scale back his already spectacular 10% strikeout price from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this previous 12 months, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time throughout his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who’s extra dependable than anybody else within the recreation in relation to placing the bat on the ball, it’s simple to see why Arraez has been enticing sufficient to golf equipment that each the Marlins and Padres have given up vital packages to land him lately.
That preternatural knack for contact is held again by Arraez’s lackluster plate self-discipline inflicting his stroll price to say no steadily alongside his strikeout price over time and a whole lack of energy, nevertheless. Each of these flaws had been on full show in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which each ranked third from the underside amongst certified main league hitters. Whereas it’s attainable that the thumb damage Arraez performed via this 12 months earlier than present process surgical procedure in October may have impacted him within the energy division, however even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins final 12 months landed simply exterior the underside ten amongst certified hitters. Between these flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster protection that largely restricted him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s additionally simple to see why each the Twins and Marlins had been prepared to half methods with him on the commerce market lately.
May Arraez be dealt for the third 12 months in a row this winter? Doing so is probably the only path to slashing a major chunk of payroll for the Padres. Stop and King are each projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, however neither reaches the $14.6MM determine Arraez is presently penciled in for. Clearing that cash off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to round $195MM. Whereas San Diego would then want to switch Arraez at first base headed into subsequent 12 months, numerous bats on the place together with former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo determine to be accessible for a relative discount this winter, that means it needs to be pretty simple for the membership to switch Arraez within the lineup and nonetheless come out $10-12MM forward, to not point out that the return for Arraez’s providers may assist to plug holes within the rotation or outfield. These motivations behind a possible deal had been sufficient to land Arraez the seventeenth spot on MLBTR’s Prime 35 offseason commerce candidates record.
With that being mentioned, a commerce of Arraez isn’t the one choice on the Padres’ disposal as they search for methods to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he can be open to an extension with the membership this winter as he stares down his closing 12 months below crew management earlier than free company, and the Padres have frequently labored out contracts that supply the membership further monetary flexibility within the short-term and the participant further safety in the long run prior to now. That features offers that comes collectively simply earlier than a participant is because of attain free company, such because the extensions they’ve provided to Darvish and Manny Machado lately.
If Arraez had been amenable to it, it’s simple to think about the Padres back-loading the deal to scale back his 2025 wage considerably and/or providing a decrease AAV over a long term with a view to duck below the luxurious tax threshold. As one instance, a six-year deal value $60MM would include an AAV of simply $10MM, permitting the membership to shave ~$4.6MM of its anticipated luxurious tax invoice for 2025. In the meantime, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made simply $5MM within the first 12 months of the deal adopted by $11MM salaries over the remainder of the contract, that might supply the Padres practically $10MM in financial savings on their 2025 payroll as in comparison with his arbitration salary- a determine not that totally different than what they’d save by buying and selling him and changing him with a low-cost veteran.
These numbers are purely hypothetical, in fact, and it’s definitely attainable Arraez wouldn’t need to lock right into a cope with such a comparatively low annual wage with out first seeing what’s accessible to him on the open market. That’s not the one flaw within the plan of extending Arraez, both; whereas a cope with the same construction to the one talked about above can be a significant assist in fixing San Diego’s speedy payroll issues for 2025, in a longer-term view it merely kicks the can down the street to subsequent season when Arraez’s wage would shoot up by $6MM and will go away the membership in the identical monetary jam they discover themselves in now.
If you happen to had been within the Padres’ footwear, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and exchange him at first base, try to increase him long-term, or just play out the season and reduce payroll elsewhere? Have your say within the ballot under!
