What Do You Do With a First-Round Catcher?

One in all my favourite picks within the first spherical of this 12 months’s draft was the 14th general choice, when Virginia catcher Kyle Teel fell into Boston’s lap and the Purple Sox devoured him proper up, thanks very a lot. The New Jersey native has backstopped the Cavaliers to 2 journeys to Omaha in three seasons of faculty ball. He’s a winner, he’s a grinder, and WEEI callers are going to fall in love with this child inside about half-hour of his massive league debut. “That is the leadahship the Sawx have wanted since Pedroia, Murph!” and so forth.

All that will be perilous sufficient to nationwide psychological hygiene by itself, however Teel can also be actually good. He’s going to stay behind the plate. He’s additionally going to hit — possibly not 20-homer energy, however a ton of doubles and line drives that rattle round within the nooks and crannies of Fenway Park’s distinctive outfield. I’m stunned he fell into the kids, however nice work by Boston for stopping the slide when he acquired to them.

Teel was certainly one of three catchers taken within the first spherical on Sunday. A pair of excessive schoolers, Blake Mitchell and Ralphy Velazquez, went eighth to Kansas Metropolis and twenty third to Cleveland, respectively. (Teel to the Royals as inheritor presumptive to Salvador Perez was a preferred prediction within the days earlier than the draft, nevertheless it was to not be.) Each Mitchell and Velazquez (twentieth and forty fifth on the pre-draft Board) are bat-first prospects. Neither is a lock to remain behind the plate, however each can hit the ball a good distance once they make contact.

Teel represents a sensible best-case situation for a contemporary catcher. The bodily and defensive calls for have pressured this technology of Mike Piazzas, Javy Lopezes, and Todd Hundleys to the corners. Right now’s catchers are nimble and athletic. The offensive worth they supply is mostly not of the middle-of-the-order selection. On the break, 34 catchers have a minimum of 150 massive league plate appearances this season. Of these, one (Sean Murphy) is hitting .300, and aside from Murphy, solely Francisco Alvarez is slugging .500. The upside for Mitchell and Velazquez is that they might break that paradigm, offering All-Star first baseman energy on the sport’s most demanding defensive place. Sadly, this isn’t a high-percentage proposition.

Since 2001, MLB groups have spent 68 first-round picks on catchers, together with supplemental picks earlier than the beginning of the second spherical. That makes the three first-round catchers from this class a mean haul. School catchers are typically a reasonably protected wager within the first spherical. I took the 68 catchers chosen within the first spherical and evaluated them on three profession hurdles: First, did they make the majors? Second, amongst draftees who made the massive leagues, did they accumulate a minimum of 10 WAR of their careers at any place? (Certainly the Cubs cared by no means that Kyle Schwarber moved to the outfield nearly instantly after reaching the massive leagues.) Third, did they stick at catcher?

To reply the third query, I meant to outline “caught at catcher” as “performed a majority of his profession massive league video games on the place.” Sadly, Joe Mauer got here in at 49.6%. However the artificial six All-Star groups and received an MVP behind the plate, for God’s sake; absolutely he counts as sticking at catcher. So I established “the Mauer Line,” or 49% of profession video games performed at catcher. And Mauer’s a tough case anyway; of the opposite 67 first-round catchers, solely Matt Thaiss made the majors and has performed between 30–50% of his profession video games behind the plate.

Already you’ll be able to see the distinction in profession end result between highschool and faculty catchers, and the distinction is extra stark the upper within the draft a catcher goes. To ensure that a catcher to go within the prime 15 picks, as Teel did, he needs to be extremely polished. That normally means he’ll be fast to achieve the majors.

It’s most likely not a coincidence that of the 17 faculty catchers drafted within the prime 15 picks since 2001, 15 got here from Energy 5 conferences. The 2 exceptions are Tony Sanchez, the no. 4 select of Boston School in 2004, a 12 months earlier than BC joined the ACC, and Max Pentecost, a Kennesaw State catcher who has certainly one of my favourite names in baseball historical past and deeply problematic shoulder points.

Two of these top-15 faculty catchers are Teel and 2022 Mets first-rounder Kevin Parada, each of whom haven’t had an opportunity to make the majors but. Six of the opposite 15 have had 10-win careers. That doesn’t embrace Adley Rutschman, who’s at 7.5 WAR by way of 199 profession video games; I’d wager my backside greenback he will get to 10 ultimately. There’s additionally 2021’s prime decide, Henry Davis, who’s been within the majors a month, and Patrick Bailey, who’s a 1.9 WAR participant by way of his first 40 main league video games. I’m additionally nonetheless holding out hope for Shea Langeliers.

Another top-15 faculty catchers: Schwarber, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Mike Zunino, and Yasmani Grandal. The ground for this sort of participant, in brief, is quite excessive.

So what’s the draw back?

You all know the next already, nevertheless it bears repeating. A place participant prospect has to do certainly one of two issues with the intention to develop into a significant league contributor: Hit or play protection. Guys who do each develop into All-Stars. Guys who do one rather well can have 10-year careers. Guys who do neither go professional in one thing apart from sports activities.

Prospects who play up-the-middle positions have lots of room for error. In the event that they decelerate as they placed on weight of their early 20s, they’ll transfer down the defensive spectrum if they’ll nonetheless hit. If the bat doesn’t come, they’ll nonetheless contribute with the glove. Because of this, if I had been operating a staff, I might actually (nearly) by no means draft highschool first basemen: If the child doesn’t completely mash, he’s not a helpful participant anymore.

Catching prospects transfer down the defensive spectrum, too. The lively chief in profession WAR amongst catchers drafted within the first-round is Josh Donaldson, who has spent all of 71 1/3 profession innings sporting the instruments of ignorance. Proper behind him is Bryce Harper, who doesn’t seem on my record of 68 as a result of the Nationals by no means even bothered with the pretense that they had been going to let him catch. Joey Votto was a catcher; so had been Jayson Werth, Raúl Ibañez, and Justin Morneau.

A shortstop who can’t hack it at quick can transfer to second or third base, or heart subject, and nonetheless develop into a useful two-way participant. However most catching prospects don’t have the foot velocity to play one other up-the-middle place; gamers like Craig Biggio and Donaldson, who was a dynamic third baseman in his youth, are uncommon. For many catching prospects, a transfer to someplace out in entrance of the plate means a transfer to left subject at greatest. Extra generally, it means first base or DH, the place the offensive requirements might be crushing. We’re watching prime A’s prospect Tyler Soderstrom undergo that ache now, because it turns into more and more probably that he performs first base within the majors and never catcher. Perhaps he’ll make that transition in addition to Votto or Morneau did, nevertheless it’s an enormous hill to climb.

Among the many few busts amongst top-15 faculty catchers are two of the few bat-first examples: Zack Collins, the tenth decide in 2016, and Jeff Clement, the no. 3 decide in 2005. These had been bat-first catchers who made the majors however barely caught as soon as there and supplied little extra worth with the bat. Clement particularly is a well-known draft miss; after the Mariners took him, the following 4 gamers off the board had been Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, and Troy Tulowitzki. Andrew McCutchen was drafted 4 picks after that run. Oof. So whereas the faculty catcher genus is mostly protected, it’s not infallible.

Highschool catchers, alternatively, make Collins and Clement appear like Johnny Bench. They’re about even cash to make the majors in any respect, and there haven’t been many successes. Listed here are the highest profession WAR for first-round catchers who acquired over the Mauer Line:

However possibly I’m selecting on the Soderstrom sorts. Perhaps the fallback plan for first-round highschool catchers — change positions, hit dingers — is definitely a well-trodden path.

Once more, no. The final first-round highschool catcher to recover from 1 WAR for his profession at a special place is the eternally underrated Neil Walker, the eleventh general decide in 2004. So Mitchell and Velazquez ought to postpone searching for first baseman’s mitts so long as potential. In terms of highschool first-round catchers, it’s sayonara in the event that they don’t stick behind the plate.

Tendencies like this are made to be damaged. I bear in mind when right-right faculty first basemen had been a whole lifeless finish from a draft perspective, after which Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Pete Alonso made a mockery of that viewpoint. And loads of high quality highschool catchers have been present in later rounds. However a first-round decide, significantly, a excessive one, is a valuable commodity — too valuable, for my part, to spend on a kind of participant for whom a lot can go unsuitable. Perhaps Mitchell and Velazquez would be the ones to buck the pattern. Nevertheless it’s fairly a pattern to buck.