Vaughn Grissom Gets a Cameo as Orlando Arcia Hits the Shelf

Orlando Arcia getting the nod for the beginning shortstop job in Atlanta raised some eyebrows this spring. In any case, he had regarded extra like a utility infielder lately than a viable beginning shortstop, and it felt a bit like that ship had lengthy since sailed. The current and future was Vaughn Grissom, our high Braves prospect final yr after the graduations of Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II. Grissom didn’t precisely wrestle in his debut final fall, whomping pitchers to the tune of a .293/.353/.440 line, a triple-slash that may be viable for a primary baseman, not to mention a man who can deal with quick. But it was Arcia who ended up with the job within the spring. It didn’t even seem to be the standard service time shenanigans, such because the Cubs swearing that Kris Bryant wanted a pair weeks to be taught to be a greater participant than Mike Olt; Grissom already had practically a 3rd of a yr of service time, which might have made it a bit arduous to take care of that façade.

Arcia didn’t disappoint in early play: In 13 video games, he hit .330/.400/.511 and regarded pretty comfy enjoying quick frequently for the primary time in a couple of years. Sadly, a Hunter Greene fastball had different plans for the place; his upper-90s warmth hit Arcia’s wrist throughout an at-bat, knocking him out of Wednesday’s sport in opposition to Cincinnati, changed by Ehire Adrianza. Preliminary x-rays didn’t reveal a fracture, however an MRI and CT scan on Thursday confirmed a microfracture, sending him to the injured checklist. This seems to be a minor harm, and it seems as if Arcia will solely miss a pair weeks of play. Cookies don’t crumble in an identical methods, however Nick Castellanos suffered this harm in 2021 and solely missed a few weeks.

If there have been service time points concerned, the Braves may have very simply plugged in Adrianza or Braden Shewmake for a few weeks and continued to let Grissom work on his protection within the minors (he was so-so at greatest within the majors final yr with the glove). However discovering time at quick for Grissom, who by all experiences took his demotion with humility, was nonetheless the upside play. Simply as Arcia didn’t disappoint early on, he carried out very properly for Triple-A Gwinnett, with a 1.044 OPS in 10 video games.

Final week, my colleague Jake Mailhot talked about among the causes we shouldn’t pooh-pooh Arcia’s expertise. Of the various drained Szym tropes, one I wish to hit on steadily is my perception that well-run groups at all times attempt to give gamers each alternative to show them unsuitable. There’s not less than an opportunity that I’m responsible of doing that with Arcia, too fast to dismiss his latest efficiency and letting him stay within the utility infielder barrel in my thoughts. As a result of there are much more causes to be concerned with Arcia in addition to those that Jake talked about.

Spring coaching doesn’t imply a lot, but it surely means one thing. Again in 2015, economist Dan Rosenheck checked out spring coaching stats in a examine he offered on the MIT Sloan Sports activities Analytics convention. He discovered that they didn’t imply a ton, but in addition that we needs to be extra cautious about laughing off the numbers as meaningless, one thing I do know I’ve been responsible of prior to now (I supplied Dan the ZiPS projections he used within the examine, so I’ve recognized about his work and tried to be extra cautious since then). Dan was wanting on the “regular” stats: OBP and SLG and their numerous derivatives. There was no StatCast knowledge to work with at this level, and issues like exit velocity and make contact with price are usually much less unstable, which signifies that, not less than theoretically, spring enhancements in these numbers needs to be much more necessary than within the basic sabermetric stats (I believe I’ve a examine to do that summer season!).

Since Jake posted his piece, Arcia continued to hit, with a mean exit velocity of 91.0 mph, pretty much as good as his stunning 90.7 final yr; getting into 2022, his profession determine was 87.1. percentages, his 42.5% hard-hit price was an enormous bounce over his 30.4% for his profession; that’s continued in a small pattern this yr at 51.4%, presently thirtieth of 196 qualifiers. Along with hitting for extra energy, Arcia additionally confirmed stunning strides in plate self-discipline, which was one among his bugaboos with the Brewers. StatCast lists 71 complete pitches for him, which isn’t precisely the biggest pool of information to work with, however even over the quick time period, his plate self-discipline knowledge was extraordinarily spectacular, one thing I by no means anticipated to say about him. Of the 41 pitches out-of-zone he confronted this spring, he solely supplied at six of them (14.6%), a price that’s in ultra-elite Joey Votto/Juan Soto territory. Even with a low qualifying standing of 100 plate appearances, the most effective in baseball final yr falls properly in need of that (Josh VanMeter at 18.9%). This wasn’t simply passivity at work, both; Arcia swung at 70% of in-zone pitches in the course of the spring, proper according to the MLB common of 67.5% in 2023.

What’s extra is that each scouts and stats actually favored Arcia’s upside as a prospect. He was the ZiPS no. 26 prospect earlier than the 2015 season, then rose to no. 4, sandwiched between J.P. Crawford and Dansby Swanson, earlier than 2016. And whereas his debut didn’t go properly, a .277/.327/.407, 2.0 WAR line at age 22 in 2017 for Milwaukee was extraordinarily promising. Let’s return to the 2016 projection for a second; the place did ZiPS assume Arcia could be now?

Perhaps the error wasn’t the projections and expectations for him, however the throwing in of the towel? That 2022 projection is mainly the participant Arcia really turned out to be in 2022 (the triple-slashes are superficially greater as a result of ZiPS didn’t undertaking final yr’s offensive setting again then). That kinda flips the story round a bit; it could imply that Arcia isn’t a utility infielder who lucked right into a beginning job, however a former high prospect who made a triumphant comeback.

Ought to Grissom play properly over the remainder of April, it could re-ignite the place battle that seemed to be settled for the quick time period. However perhaps that’s not true in any respect; perhaps the query isn’t whether or not Arcia or Grissom lose their beginning gig after they get again, however one thing else totally? We didn’t count on the Braves to get a lot out of left area this yr, and thus far, they haven’t, as Eddie Rosario, Marcell Ozuna, Kevin Pillar, and a sport of Sam Hilliard have mixed for a .466 OPS on the place. Whereas the place received’t keep fairly that weak, it was lengthy anticipated that left and DH (held down by Ozuna, who’s been terrible) have been the staff’s weak spots. What if the odd-man out at shortstop turns into the even-man in at third base (if the staff needs to revisit Austin Riley in left area briefly) or in left themselves? An Arcia/Harris/Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield might be fairly the boon for the staff’s flyball pitchers.

At its core, the Braves having a minor controversy at shortstop is simply an issue in the event that they make it one. Having an excessive amount of expertise has been an precise downside for exactly zero groups in baseball historical past. Atlanta has different wants; Arcia’s harm and Grissom’s stint because the starter might find yourself with the “Grissom or Arcia?” reply being “why not each?”