One other weekend, one other APEX card because the UFC returns on Saturday for UFC Vegas 86. In the primary occasion, Joe Pyfer lastly will get his probability to interrupt into the middleweight prime 15, whereas Jack Hermansson does his greatest to carry on to his perennial spot within the rankings by rebuffing one other up-and-comer. There are additionally three extra middleweight matchups on Saturday, together with a number of different fights, so let’s get to it.
As at all times, all odds are courtesy of our pals at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Straight Bets
Brad Tavares +200
Right here’s the factor about Brad Tavares: He’s not unhealthy! Tavares is without doubt one of the all-time middleweight-y middleweights. Only a dude who’s stable all over the place, spectacular nowhere, however he’s going to hold round and fraud-check all of the up-and-comers hoping to interrupt into the highest 15. And whereas I personally adore watching Gregory Rodrigues and his model of defensively questionable, strategically poor combating, he’s additionally the form of dude who will get checked by a Tavares. Rodrigues is the superior grappler, however he most likely can’t rating takedowns and won’t even strive. He hits laborious, however Tavares is cleaner and sturdy. There may be very a lot a world the place Tavares chops the legs down and Rodrigues gasses laborious, so it is a nice worth.
Rodolfo Vieira -115
I’m actually contradicting myself with this one. Within the above combat, I’m fading the elite grappler with questionable cardio in favor of the rock-solid gatekeeper. On this one, I’m backing the grappler, however for one very particular motive: Armen Petrosyan shouldn’t be good. Now, he’s not unhealthy, however he’s no Brad Tavares, particularly on the subject of the wrestling. Petrosyan shouldn’t be a great defensive wrestler, and Vieira gained’t fall in love along with his palms like “Robocop” does, that means this can go the ground.
As soon as it’s there, name me loopy, however I’m driving with the umpteen time BJJ world champion to get the win.
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Prop Bets
Joe Pyfer To Win By KO/TKO/DQ +100
I’ve just a little little bit of trepidation about this one, as a result of for all of the hype behind him, Pyfer continues to be fairly uncooked. Extraordinarily highly effective, and he hits like a hammer, however there’s lots of technical refinement to be completed. Add to that, we’ve by no means actually seen his cardio examined, and this combat is 5 rounds. His fashion doesn’t appear to be one which does nicely because the combat drags on, and I’ve bought questions. That being stated, typically you’ve gotta experience the wave.
Hermansson has been a staple of this division for what appears like an eternity, however meaning Father Time is catching as much as him, and I count on Pyfer will, too. However as an alternative of laying the juice on Joe straight up, take this prop as eight of Pyfer’s 12 profession wins are by KO and Hermansson has been iced 3 instances, together with his most up-to-date bout in opposition to Roman Dolidze.
Dan Ige To Win By Choice +165
Talking of divisional staples, Dan Ige has lived within the featherweight top-15 for the final 5 years, and I see no motive why that may change after this weekend. Andre Fili is a enjoyable fighter, however one who has a clearly outlined ceiling, and Ige is solely above that.
Furthermore, the combat strains up nicely for Ige. Ige mainly solely loses to fighters who will repeatedly take him down and management him (he gave up 14 takedowns to Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev mixed). Whereas Fili can wrestle, that’s not his sport. This may largely be contested on the ft, the place Ige has just a little extra craft, just a little extra pop, and loads higher protection. The tread (or growing lack thereof) on Fili’s tires offers me some pause, however I nonetheless like this higher than the juice of a straight wager.
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Parlay of the Week
Bolaji Oki -198 + Carlos Prates -258
Your weekly Contender Sequence particular. Each Oki and Prates are making their UFC debuts from the latest season of the feeder program, and in my write-up on the season, I marked each of them as “Three-And-D Rotational Gamers.” Principally, guys who may be enjoyable contributors to UFC reveals, however who lack the upside to emerge as contenders. So what else am I imagined to do in a state of affairs like this? I’ve bought to tie them collectively for a parlay!
Is it lower than best that Oki had a last-minute substitute? Positive. However that may’t be helped for now, and Prates, no less than, is extremely more likely to present out in opposition to the lower than sturdy Trevin Giles.
Parlay these two bets collectively for +108 odds.
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Lengthy Shot of the Week
Ihor Potieria To Win By Submission +1100
I’m actually reaching with this one. Potieria shouldn’t be good, however then once more, neither is Robert Bryczek. Potieria can be stepping in on quick discover, however once more, he’s not good in order that doesn’t make a ton of distinction. He’s additionally making his 185 kilos debut, and that really would possibly work out in his favor as he is likely to be just a little extra sturdy competing at middleweight as an alternative of 205. Principally although, that is an emotional hedge.
I’ll nonetheless by no means forgive the UFC for sending Shogun out, so Potieria might get a win. But when Potieria loses his fourth within the UFC and will get lower, then that was all actually for nothing. A minimum of if he makes one thing of himself, Shogun’s (figurative) demise gained’t have been in useless. And on condition that he has seven profession submissions — and once more, Bryczek isn’t good both — I’ll take a stab at this.
Wrap Up
Uo-and-down week final trip. Molly McCann working over Diana Belbita like that was not what I anticipated. On to the following.
Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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