UFC Saudi Arabia: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Whittaker vs. Aliskerov

UFC Saudi Arabia comes at us this weekend (Sat., June 22, 2024) from the Kingdom Enviornment in Riyadh. That is UFC’s first foray into Saudi Arabia, with the promotion strolling within the footsteps of Francis Ngannou, Tyson Fury, Oleksandr Usyk and different large title boxers who’ve been drawn to the desert by the riches provided by the Home of Saud. Saudi Arabia has intensified its sports activities program lately because it tries to rework itself into MENA’s leisure capital (whereas additionally obscuring their status for human rights violations).

The principle occasion for this one was presupposed to be Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev, a battle that might have produced a Middleweight title challenger. Nevertheless, Chimaev fell off the cardboard final week with an undisclosed sickness. Since then Ikram Aliskerov has been drafted in as his substitute. Aliskerov has two UFC fights underneath his belt and was presupposed to battle Antonio Troccoli within the UFC APEX final Saturday.

The co-main occasion for this one has prime Russian Heavyweights Sergei Pavlovich and Alexander Volkov going at it. Pavlovich will possible need to show his KO loss to Tom Aspinall final trip (right here) was a fluke and that he deserves to leap again into the title image. Additionally on the principle card is Johnny Walker vs. Volkan Ozedemir and Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez.

The “Prelims” are headlined by Shara Magomedov. He takes on late substitute Joiltin Lutterbach. The Prelims additionally function Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jared Gordon.

Let’s try the moneylines on Perez vs. Taira and all the opposite bouts on the cardboard …

UFC Saudi Arabia Essential Card Cash Line Odds

Robert Whittaker (-155) vs. Ikram Aliskerov (+130)

Robert Whittaker has solely misplaced to present or future champions within the Middleweight division.

Let that sink in for a second.

He’s 10-3 at 185 lbs. with the one blemishes being the title dropping TKO he suffered by the hands of Israel Adesanya (see it right here), the choice loss of their rematch, and at last the TKO he misplaced to Dricus Du Plessis in a primary contender bout final 12 months (see that right here).

Ikram Aliskerov is 15-1, his lone loss coming to Khamzat Chimaev in 2019. However solely three of these wins have occurred in a UFC Octagon. His first win was on the Contender Collection in 2022. The man he beat by kimura there then went on to battle in Brazil’s model of Misfits Boxing. His different UFC wins are stoppages of the chinny Phil Hawes (right here) and the spent Warlley Alves (right here). In fact Aliskerov can solely beat who he’s been put in entrance of, however this resume doesn’t give me a lot confidence of his probabilities towards somebody who has fought (and largely overwhelmed) a who’s who at Middleweight.

It’s onerous to place an excessive amount of inventory within the stats right here, since Aliskerov solely has stats recorded for his three appearances contained in the Octagon. The restricted quantity of stats level to how hittable he’s, although. His vital strike defence is simply 36% and that quantity owes rather a lot to what number of instances Hawes was in a position to catch him with punches earlier than he had his lights turned out. Hawes landed 17 or 28 sig. strikes in that battle (60%). Towards Roman Dolidze, Hawes was solely in a position to land 11 of 26 sig. strikes (42%).

Whittaker, then again, has a a lot bigger physique of labor that we are able to draw numbers from. His sig. putting protection is 59%, which is without doubt one of the greatest percentages in his division (Sean Strickland predictably leads the way in which there with 62.3%). In his final battle Paulo Costa landed 67 of 151 sig. strikes (44%) on him. Costa has a profession 58% sig. strike accuracy.

Whittaker can be within the prime ten for greatest takedown protection proportion within the division (79.6%). So it appears unlikely that Aliskerov might simply pivot to a floor battle if he struggles to impose his will on the toes.

Usually, I’d fairly choose somebody primarily based on what we all know than what we don’t know. We definitely don’t know Aliskerov’s ceiling and this could be like T.J. Dillashaw coming in on quick discover to blast via Renan Barao and announce himself as a critical participant. However what we do know is that Whittaker is without doubt one of the best Middleweights of his technology and stays a particularly harmful and well-rounded fighter. That’s why he’s the favourite right here and that’s why I’d choose him to beat Aliskerov, most likely by unanimous resolution.

Sergei Pavlovich (-230) vs. Alexander Volkov (+190)

My preliminary response to this match-up was merely, Alexander Volkov gained’t be capable of face up to Sergei Pavlovich’s energy.

However after some examine, I believe that is really a better battle than I had initially given it credit score for. Volkov is definitely within the prime ten for least sig. strikes absorbed per minute within the Heavyweight division (3.22). Pavlovich then again absorbs 4.61 strikes a minute.

Volkov can be the extra correct striker, touchdown 57% of his sig. strikes versus Pavlovich’s 48%.

These numbers paint the image of those two fighters fairly effectively. Pavlovich is greater than keen to take a punch to land one and he hundreds up with energy when he does (83% of his 18 wins are by Okay/TKO). Whereas Volkov is extra of a sniper who will patiently chip away and never drop his guard usually whereas doing so. He does have stopping energy, too, although (65% of his 37 wins are by Okay/TKO).

For me it’s a bit up within the air about who’s going to search out extra success on the toes (and this complete battle will possible be contested on the toes). Pavlovich clearly doesn’t have to land as many punches as Volkov does to win the battle. However in only a three spherical battle, Volkov would possibly be capable of restrict these alternatives sufficient that he can win a choice together with his counter punching.

Pavlovich’s 4 inch attain benefit would possibly stop Volkov from with the ability to handle the vary on this battle, although (until he tries the en vogue repeating entrance kick protection, which might really work fairly effectively right here).

If the bout does go to the bottom, Pavlovich is a terror together with his floor and pound. Nevertheless, Volkov is not any slouch relating to Heavyweight grappling.

With the chances being what they’re, I’m tempted with the underdog right here.

Kelvin Gastelum (-245) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+200)

It seems like Daniel Rodriguez has hit his ceiling, after his lacklustre losses to Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny. He’s additionally 37-years-old. Kelvin Gastelum has been preventing at this degree a heck of rather a lot longer and he’s remarkably nonetheless solely 32-years-old.

Rodriguez has a measurement benefit over Gastelum (4 inch peak, three inch attain), however Gastelum could be very used to preventing taller and longer guys and he’s not often been uncovered due to these metrics alone.

Rodriguez brings a loopy quantity of quantity together with his putting. He’s prime within the division with 7.55 sig. strikes landed per minute and second in sig. putting differential (2.42). Nevertheless, his sig. putting accuracy is simply 50%, effectively outdoors the highest ten in his division. The explanation Rodriguez has been in a position to rack up so many strikes in his fights could be all the way down to a scarcity of energy. In ten UFC bouts he’s gotten simply two stoppages by way of strikes, a 2020 win over Dwight Grant and a 2021 win over Preston Parsons (see that right here).

Rodriguez landed 120 vital strikes on Kevin Lee in 2021, however couldn’t get the end.

Gastelum has by no means been stopped in his professional profession. And he’s superb at not getting hit. His sig. putting protection is third highest within the division (65.7%). In his second to final battle he was in a position to restrict Chris Curtis to only 34% success on sig. strikes (effectively under Curtis’ profession common of 51.%).

I simply don’t see Rodriguez discovering success on the toes towards Gastelum and I don’t know the way else he can win a battle with him. Gastelum ought to be capable of keep away from Rodriguez’s putting and win the positional sport for a choice victory. Gastelum remains to be younger sufficient that his expertise is a profit and never a detriment. Rodriguez isn’t tremendous battle worn, however at 37, I don’t assume he’ll be capable of match Gastelum for tempo in clinches and any wrestling that may go down.

Johnny Walker (-108) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (+112)

Issues obtained bizarre the final time Johnny Walker fought within the center east, with an odd no contest reverse Magomed Ankalaev taking place at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi. Of their rematch, Walker was melted by an Ankalaev uppercut (see it right here). That loss broke Walker’s 4 battle undefeated streak, which included wins over Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig and Anthony Smith.

The KO loss to Anakalaev was Walker’s fifth Okay/TKO loss.

Volkan Oezdemir’s most memorable losses have each been stoppages as a consequence of strikes. Nevertheless, these are the one Okay/TKO losses in his profession. In 2018 was pounded out by a chief Daniel Cormier when he challenged for the belt. And in 2020 he met Jiri Prochazka in Prochazka’s UFC debut. Prochazka starched Oezdemir in lower than a minute (test it out right here).

Because the Prochazka loss Oezdemir has misplaced selections to Ankalaev and Nikita Krylov and overwhelmed Paul Craig and Bogdan Guskov (who seemed fairly good towards Ryan Spann a couple of months in the past).

Walker could have an enormous seven inch attain benefit over Oezdemir. However he had that over Ankalaev, too.

Finally, I believe Oezdemir is the choose right here on this choose ‘em. I imagine his putting output and protection are higher than Walker’s and I don’t assume Walker can take too many clear pictures from Oezdemir earlier than taking place.

UFC Saudi Arabia ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Odds

Shara Magomedov (-238) vs. Joilton Lutterbach (+210)

Shara Magomedov shall be making his second UFC look at UFC Saudi Arabia on Saturday. He debuted final 12 months, taking a unanimous resolution win over Bruno Silva. This victory did little to overshadow what Magomedov is most well-known for… sucker punching a man in a mall in Dagestan as a result of the man was kissing his personal girlfriend in public. Magomedov additionally earned some notoriety for making an attempt to throw down after he obtained miffed in a BJJ bout.

The new-headed Magomedov had a whole lot of hype when he was outdoors the UFC because of his undefeated file which included 10 Okay/TKOs and only one resolution. Nevertheless, towards Silva he simply seemed OK. He out struck Silva, however was taken down a couple of instances and didn’t look very effectively rounded for a supposed tremendous prospect (who simply turned 30, by the way in which).

In Riyadh he will get a brief discover substitute opponent within the type of Joilton Lutterbach. Like Magomedov, Lutterbach is a kickboxer initially. Lutterbach has had a extra profitable muay thai profession than Magomedov and he’s additionally discovered some success in Karate Fight lately.

In MMA, the 31-year-old Brazilian has virtually 40 extra fights than Magomedov. Nevertheless, he’s but to get wins past the regional degree (he misplaced to Clay Collard and Raush Manfio in his solely ever PFL bouts again in 2021).

I don’t assume Magomedov will stroll over Lutterbach right here, however I believe he’s obtained the higher MMA putting sport out of the 2. Given Magomedov’s temperament I wouldn’t guess on him to win something, however I do assume he’s a worthy favourite on this battle.

Nasrat Haqparast (-238) vs. Jared Gordon (+195)

Nasrat Haqparast is one a pleasant run, having gained three on the trot. Final trip he scored a Efficiency of the Evening win together with his stoppage over Jamie Mullarkey. Jared Gordon has been inconsistent in his UFC profession, however has suffered from some powerful match-making, dropping to Paddy Pimblett (supposedly) and Grant Dawson.

I believe the oddsmakers are being a bit ageist right here, giving the 35-year-old Gordon such lengthy odds towards his 28-year-old opponent. Gordon has higher sig. putting accuracy than Haqparast (57% vs. 44%) and absorbs manner fewer sig. strikes per minute (3.4 vs. 5.25). His takedown common per 15 minutes can be over six instances larger than Haqparast (1.95 vs. 0.31) and his takedown accuracy is 40%. Nevertheless, Haqparast’s takedown protection is an excellent 78%.

I believe it is a shut battle, however I additionally assume Haqparast’s enchancment over his previous couple of fights ought to carry him via this one, albeit not spectacularly.

Muhammad Naimov (?) vs. Felipe Lima (?)

No odds for this late match-up have been launched at the moment of writing.

Rinat Fakhretdinov (-355) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+280)

Nicolas Dalby is on a 4 battle successful streak and coming off a TKO win over the beforehand undefeated Gabriel Bonfim (see it right here). He was at plus odds on his final three wins and was a +455 canine when he beat Bonfim. Previous to that he was +160 when he took a unanimous resolution over Muslim Salikhov.

Final trip Rinat Fakhretdinov drew towards Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Previous to that he obtained Kevin Lee with a guillotine choke (see it right here).

That is fairly good match-making right here and I believe it’s one other shut battle regardless of what the oddsmakers say.

Fakhretdinov is the choose as a result of he ought to be capable of take down Dalby and management the battle from there. Nevertheless, Dalby does have a 60% takedown protection and Fakhretdinov was just one of 9 on takedowns in his battle with Zaleski dos Santos (who has a 68% takedown protection).

Muin Gafurov (-162) vs. Kang Kyung Ho (+136)

Each these guys have losses to John Castaneda in latest showings. Gafurov is but to win within the UFC, additionally dropping to Stated Nurmagomedov and Chad Anheliger. Kang Kyung Ho has been with the UFC since 2013. His first UFC battle was on Gas TV for Pete’s sake. He lately choked out Cristian Quinonez for his twelfth profession submission win. The 36-year-old Korean is the slight underdog right here, however his measurement and expertise would possibly give Gafurov some hassle.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-310) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+250)

We’ve seen little or no of each these guys within the UFC. Magomed Gadzhiyasulov obtained a choice win on the Contender Collection final 12 months. He fights for Bahrain royalty owned KHK Sports activities and he has a legitimacy purple flag on his tapology file. Brendson Ribeiro obtained a TKO win on the Contender Collection after which misplaced his correct debut to Zhang Migyang (in fairly devastating vogue) in February.

Xiao Lengthy (-115) vs. Lee Chang Ho (-105)

Xiao Lengthy and Lee Chang Ho shall be battling to win Highway to UFC season two Bantamweight event right here. Lee is a grappler and Xiao is a striker. Neither have executed a lot outdoors of small promotions of their respective nations of China and South Korea.

UFC Saudi Arabia Prop Bets And Parlays

Right here’s a few issues that look attention-grabbing for this Saturday’s UFC Saudi Arabia card …

Robert Whittaker to beat Ikram Aliskerov by way of resolution (+250)

Whittaker is a generational fighter. Aliskerov is, proper now, the film of the week. I’ve far more religion in Whittaker doing what he’s executed all through his profession than I do Aliskerov repeating his flashy wins over somebody ranges past Phil Hawes and Warrley Alves. Whittaker hasn’t gotten many finishes as of late, however I believe he’ll be capable of outclass Aliskerov over 5 rounds. Aliskerov, whose complete UFC cage time is six minutes and 26 seconds, may additionally battle to maintain up when he get previous the primary two rounds.

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov – Over 1.5 rounds (-124)

I believe this battle will go the gap as a result of I respect Volkov’s protection. Having suffered a fast and humbling loss final trip, Pavlovich may additionally favor a extra cautious method this time.

Two battle parlay: Kelvin Gastelum to beat Daniel Rodriguez and Nasrat Haqparast to beat Jared Gordon (+102)

These two had been separated at delivery, however I believe they are going to be united in getting their arms raised in Riydah. Each Rodriguez and Gordon are on the fallacious aspect of 35. Gastelum is a horrible match-up for Rodriguez and Haqparast ought to be too dynamic for Gordon.

Shara Magomedov vs. Joilton Lutterback – Level to be deducted throughout the battle (+2000)

Magomedov is a head case and when you’re going to throw a dart at this prop guess, you couldn’t discover a higher candidate on this card.

UFC Saudi Arabia Ballot Time

Which of the sooner props and parlays do you just like the look of essentially the most?

Obtained one thing higher than these? Nicely, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them within the feedback.

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your complete UFC Saudi Arabia battle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 12 p.m. ET, earlier than the principle card begin time at 3 p.m. ET (additionally on ABC/ESPN+).

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