Recent off of UFC 287, the world’s premier MMA promotion returns with one other Struggle Evening occasion, this time in Kansas Metropolis, Mo. Headlined by a featherweight tilt between former champion Max Holloway and rising contender Arnold Allen, UFC Kansas Metropolis options 14 fights and a number of other dwell canines within the combine.
As at all times, all odds are courtesy of our associates at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Straight Bets
Pedro Munhoz, +170
Final week, I used to be fairly firmly behind Adrian Yanez as he took an enormous step up in competitors when he fought Rob Font. That blew up in my face, and now I’m making an attempt to be taught a lesson.
Chris Gutiérrez is an thrilling and promising fighter who’s unbeaten in his earlier eight bouts, however Munhoz is a serious step up in competitors. Sure, Munhoz has misplaced 4 of his earlier six bouts, however like with Font per week in the past, all of his losses have come in opposition to the elite of the elite within the division. Add in that Munhoz is the one man at bantamweight who can’t solely match Gutiérrez’s low kicking potential, however exceed it, and he’s a really dwell underdog on this matchup.
Dustin Jacoby, -155
Azamat Murzakanov could also be undefeated, however I’m under no circumstances bought on the Russian fighter. Murzakanov was on his option to shedding to Tafon Nchukwi earlier than touchdown the third-round flying knee knockout, and his profession wins haven’t been in opposition to significantly nice competitors. In the meantime, Jacoby has regarded sensational since rejoining the UFC in 2020, and had been it not for shedding a foul break up determination in his most up-to-date combat, he’d be 7-0-1 within the UFC over that point. In a bout that must be contested totally on the toes, I favor the person who’s the cleaner technician and has some clear bodily benefits as nicely. I favor the previous Glory kickboxer Jacoby.
Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Prop Bets
Arnold Allen by Choice, +330
Father Time comes for us all, and I imagine he’s right here for Max Holloway.
Although he’s solely 31 years outdated, Holloway has been combating professionally for 13 years. That’s proper across the time we usually begin to see a drop off in fighters, and primarily based on his trilogy combat with Alexander Volkanovski, I feel that’s already occurring. Holloway was undressed in that combat, in a manner he had not been the earlier two occasions out, and I feel a drop in athleticism is partly accountable. The physique solely has so many miles on it, and Max has had a tough street, significantly currently.
Allen, in the meantime, is actually brisker and his run of late has seen him take care of little or no adversity. “Almighty” is exceedingly well-rounded (consider a featherweight Rory MacDonald) and his important subject has been a scarcity of dynamic offense. That also might show problematic right here, however in opposition to a slowing Holloway, Allen can compete on the toes early and I feel discover takedowns within the later rounds to drag away. Max is as powerful as they arrive, solely having been completed as soon as in his profession although, so I anticipate this one to make it to the ultimate horn.
Edson Barboza by KO/TKO/DQ, +380
As talked about above, I’m making an attempt to be taught some classes this week. At UFC 287, the wily veterans held courtroom in opposition to the younger upstarts making an enormous leap up in competitors, and Barboza has an opportunity to do the identical in opposition to Billy Quarantillo. As a result of should you suppose Rob Font or Pedro Munhoz have had a troublesome run of competitors, simply take a look at Barboza’s résumé. In his UFC run, Barboza has confronted arguably the hardest power of schedule of any fighter, interval. Six former champions, a handful of title contenders, and principally nobody exterior of the highest 10, for greater than a decade! That’s insane. “Billy Q,” in distinction, misplaced to the one top-15 man he ever confronted.
Quarantillo is thrilling and dynamic, however he doesn’t care an excessive amount of for protection, and Barboza stays an explosive and harmful fighter. Over the previous few years, when matched up in opposition to lesser competitors, Barboza has been in a position to get the job achieved, and he will definitely have alternatives to clobber Quarantillo. The query is whether or not the Brazilian nonetheless has it. At this worth, I’m keen to guess he does.
Photograph by Carmen Mandato/Getty Photographs
Parlay of the Week
Max Holloway/Arnold Allen Over 1.5 Rounds, -450
Holloway has gone to a call (in five-round fights) in every of his earlier seven contests. He’s gone over 1.5 rounds in 25 of his 30 skilled fights. Allen has hit Beneath this quantity in his previous two bouts, however previous to that went 11 straight with out an early end. Straightforward.
Invoice Algeo/T.J.Brown Over 1.5 Rounds, -400
Of their mixed 12 fights contained in the UFC, Algeo and Brown have solely didn’t eclipse 7 minutes and 30 seconds as soon as, a nook stoppage for Algeo at 1:50 of the second spherical. Had Herbert Burns opted to proceed combating, these two could be good of their pursuit of Over 1.5s.
Joselyn Edwards/Lucie Pudilova Over 2.5 Rounds, -305
In 5 UFC bouts, Edwards as gone to 5 straight selections. Pudilova, in the meantime, has gone to determination in 12 of her earlier 14 fights. I’ll be astonished if this doesn’t go to the judges.
Parlay these two bets collectively for -135 odds.
Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Lengthy Shot of the Week
Tanner Boser to Win by Cut up or Majority Choice, +1400
First off, let’s acknowledge that Boser is trying much more svelte than regular as he prepares for his mild heavyweight debut. Good for him.
Second, let me clarify the guess. On No Bets Barred, I’ve been experimenting with a factor I name the ChatGPT guess. It’s precisely what it seems like, and this week, ChatGPT is saying that Boser goes to win a hard-fought determination over Ion Cutelaba. Who am I to argue with the machines? On prime of that, this guess truly appears possible, as Cutelaba throws the kitchen sink early and inevitably fades late, that means scorecards can get wacky — one thing Boser is a bit accustomed to at this level, with 4 of his 30 profession fights ending in break up or majority motion.
Is that this essentially the most sound reasoning of all-time? After all not. But it surely’s a enjoyable guess to be alongside on the trip for, so tail if .
Wrap Up
We principally broke even final week and really practically hit our Lengthy Shot of the Week, which might have been the primary of the 12 months. Alas, the search continues.
Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
All info on this article is supplied to readers of MMA Combating for leisure, information, and amusement functions solely. It’s the duty of the reader to be taught and abide by on-line playing legal guidelines of their area earlier than putting any on-line sports activities betting wagers.
