UFC 303 (Sat., June 29, 2024) from T-Cell Area exterior of Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 303’s pay-per-view (PPV) predominant card was purported to characteristic Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler. Nevertheless, Roadhouse’s Knox was unable to make the date due to a pinky toe damage (severely). Whether or not McGregor broken it within the coaching room or the dance ground is anybody’s guess.
Stepping in to save lots of the occasion on brief discover is Mild Heavyweight champion, Alex Pereira, (who fought with a damaged toe at UFC 300). He will probably be staking his title in opposition to Jiri Prochazka, who he beat through controversial technical knockout again in Nov. 2023. The co-main occasion will see Brian Ortega tackle Diego Lopes (now in Light-weight motion). Rounding out the primary card will probably be Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze, Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson and Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Web page.
The late “Prelims” will characteristic Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault, Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili and Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva. The early “Prelims” are headlined by Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Jillian Robertson.
I’ve been watching the traces for all of the fights on UFC 303 and monitoring the adjustments to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Under you’ll discover all the road motion data because the odds have been launched (per Greatest Combat Odds).
UFC 303 PPV Essential Card Line Motion Tracker
Alex Pereira (-146 -3.3%) vs. Jiri Prochazka (+118 +3.2%)
There hasn’t been a variety of motion on this line because it was introduced. The road can be much like the place these two closed once they fought one another at UFC 295. This tells us that the general public are as cut up on this one because the oddsmakers, with most favoring the champion to retain his belt, whereas loads others assume Prochazka was robbed final day out and may be capable to get previous Poatan along with his extra well-rounded recreation.
Betters siding with Prochazka must be cautious, although. Black magic could also be at play right here (not even joking), on the a part of the Brazilian.
Brian Ortega (+117 +17.1%) vs. Diego Lopes (-145 -19.6%)
Our co-main occasion has seen a giant swing within the odds. When the traces got here out on June 14 Lopes was the slight underdog. Nevertheless, with the general public fading Ortega, now we have seen Lopes now established as the favourite.
Regardless of Ortega beating Yair Rodriguez final day out, Lopes feels just like the extra related and attention-grabbing fighter in the meanwhile. And the hype round his potential definitely appears to be profitable over a variety of betters right here.
This didn’t assist, both.
However, I favored him as an underdog due to his capacity to threaten a end in opposition to Ortega each on the ft and on the bottom. I don’t assume Ortega can cling with him on the ft and, in contrast to with previous opponents, he received’t have an enormous ability benefit if and once they get to the canvas.
Anthony Smith (+115 -10.5%) vs. Roman Dolidze (-144 +6.3%)
This line has appear just a little motion. Smith was a decent-sized underdog when this bout was introduced. Nevertheless, he’s seen some motion from the general public, bringing his odds down barely. It’s fairly apparent the rationale(s) this has occurred. We have now a fairly recent reminiscence of Smith cashing as a giant underdog in Rio a couple of months again, when he guillotined Vitor Petrino within the first spherical. The motion on Smith has result in just a little extra worth being created on the Dolidze choose. I don’t assume Dolidze will stroll over Smith, however I belief him to not make a foolish mistake like Petrino did.
Mayra Bueno Silva (+100 +25.9%) vs. Macy Chiasson (-107 -55.8%)
This can be a very attention-grabbing line. Bueno Silva was a -238 favourite and Chiasson was a +195 underdog when these odds have been launched. It appears the general public have been loving that plus cash on Chiasson during the last week. Her odds particularly began to plummet on June 22, 2024.
The struggle is now a choose ‘em and I want I might have gotten Chiasson at +195. I believe her measurement and wrestling are going to trigger every kind of issues for Bueno Silva.
Ian Machado Garry (-148 -18.4%) vs. Michael Web page (+135 +17.6%)
That is one other struggle that has seen a variety of motion on its traces. This was a choose ‘em initially. Nevertheless, there was a variety of regular motion on Garry, pushing him to a strong favourite.
That is excellent news for the haters. Web page is a reside canine at +135 and that may develop some extra as we get nearer to the struggle evening.
I believe this can be a actually shut struggle, however some huge cash is perhaps heading Garry’s approach as a result of he’s extra well-known to a UFC viewers.
UFC 303 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Motion
Joe Pyfer (-275 -21%) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+240 +29.8%)
With each males coming off a loss, the bookies initially had this struggle as a choose ‘em. Nevertheless, the general public nonetheless consider in Pyfer it appears. I do, too, for what it’s value — at the least on this match-up the place he’s the extra harmful striker and grappler. This line is trending in reverse instructions for each males, so when you like Pyfer greatest get on his odds now earlier than they shrink anymore.
Cub Swanson (+205 +23.1%) vs. Andre Fili (-230 -17%)
The 40-year-old Swanson was getting just a little love from Vegas when these odds have been first launched. Nevertheless, the general public aren’t using with SoCal’s best for this struggle. As an alternative they’re betting on NorCal’s Fili. That’s excellent news when you assume Swanson’s expertise will see him by this struggle for what is perhaps one in all his final wins within the cage. Nevertheless, nearly all of of us may assume all that have is a unfavorable and that Swanson will merely be too gradual for Fili.
Charles Jourdain (-110 +19.8%) vs. Jean Silva (-110 -36.5%)
Silva was a +164 underdog when these traces have been first launched. However, a gradual and regular stream of cash on the Brazilian has turned this right into a choose ‘em. I believe that is right down to curiosity on Silva’s potential as a heavy-handed striker. However, it’s additionally a little bit of a condemnation on Jourdain’s standing as a favourite. “Air” Jourdain misplaced to Sean Woodson as a -210 favourite final day out. He additionally misplaced to Nathaniel Wooden and Julian Erosa as a favourite.
Payton Talbott (-1600 -26.6%) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (+1000 +66.7%)
Ghemmouri was +240 when these traces first got here out. However, the general public has been pounding the favourite Talbott right here, turning this line right into a gaudy mismatch. There have to be an unimaginable quantity of confidence within the undefeated (8-0) 25-year-old right here. He seemed nice when he completed Cameron Saaiman in his final struggle (see it right here), however -1600 feels just a little inappropriate. I believe Talbott will win, however I received’t decide anybody for placing just a little sprinkle on Ghemmouri (something can occur in MMA, in any case).
UFC 303 Early ‘Prelims’ Below Card Line Motion
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+115 -29%) vs. Gillian Robertson (-180 +11.6%)
I’m just a little stunned by what’s taking place with this line. The general public have been betting on Waterson-Gomez sufficient that she has gone from a sizeable underdog to only a slight canine in her struggle with Robertson. I assumed issues would go the alternative approach, with folks leaping on Robertson as the favourite right here and making her a bedrock of their parlays. Waterson-Gomez is 38 and her final struggle was unhappy to observe. Robertson is peaking and may be capable to take down and submit Waterson-Gomez.
Andre Arlovski (+220 -5.5%) vs. Martin Buday (-250 +2%)
Not a variety of motion on this one. The 45-year-old Arlovksi is a decent-sized underdog. Nevertheless, his identify recognition and the unpredictability of the Heavyweight division, might be stopping the general public from leaping on Buday (regardless that I believe he’s one of many greatest locks to win at UFC 303).
Rei Tsuruyu (-450 -3%) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+375 +15.2%)
Tsuruyu is a late substitute on this struggle. We’ve not seen a lot of him. However, what now we have seen may be very spectacular. That was sufficient for the oddsmakers to present him -450 and the general public hasn’t proven any disagreement over this.
Ricky Simon (-235 -11.6%) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+205 +17.8%)
The oddsmakers have been checked right here as the general public assume their line on Simon was too stingy. Oliveira is coming to the struggle off the again of a “Knockout of the Yr” candidate. Nevertheless, the betters don’t assume that’s sufficient to low cost what Simon can convey to the desk and a perception that he can rag-doll Oliviera on Saturday evening.
UFC 303 Largest Line Actions
TLDR: Listed here are the 5 greatest line actions at UFC 303:
Yanis Ghemmouri from a +240 underdog to a +1000 underdog (+66.7%)
Macy Chiasson from a +195 underdog to a -107 favourite (-55.8%)
Jean Silva from a +164 underdog to a -102 favourite (-36.5%)
Marc-Andre Barriault from a +136 underdog to a +240 underdog (+29.8%)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez from a +225 underdog to a +155 underdog (-29%)
UFC 303 Greatest Underdogs Bets
We’ve seen a variety of swings on this card, with some underdogs ballooning in value whereas others have flipped to change into favorites (Lopes, Chiasson, Silva).
Of the underdogs left on the board, although, Prochazka and Web page must be the most effective worth. They’re each extraordinarily proficient fighters in shut match-ups. They’re each licensed finishers, too. I believe there’s extra likelihood Web page will get by Garry than Prochazka enacts revenge on Pereira, personally.
There aren’t any different underdogs right here that I might be tempted to take huge swings on. Smith might slip up Dolidze and Ortega may show his doubters mistaken. However, the remainder of the canines on this card have fairly lengthy odds for a cause.
Sufficient about me, although, which of those underdogs do you want probably the most?
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Which UFC 303 underdog do you want this most?
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Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of all the UFC 303 struggle card, beginning with the “Prelims” play-by-play proper right here and adopted by the “Essential Card” play-by-play proper right here. The motion begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET. These are adopted by the “Late Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ earlier than the primary card begin time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
To take a look at the newest and best UFC 303: “Pereira vs. Prochazka 2” information and notes make sure you hit up our complete occasion archive proper right here.