Months of rumors in regards to the Marlins’ rotation have lastly resulted in some motion, because the Marlins have traded right-hander Pablo Lopez, prime infield prospect Jose Salas and outfield prospect Byron Chourio to the Twins in alternate for reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez, per bulletins from each golf equipment.
The core of the commerce, for fast functions, will see the Twins swap out three years of Arraez for 2 seasons of Lopez, who’ll instantly be an improve to their rotation. The 26-year-old Lopez has come into his personal as a top quality large league starter over the previous three seasons, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 25% strikeout fee, a 7% stroll fee and a 47.4% ground-ball fee in 340 innings.
Lopez has handled some damage points in his profession, thrice touchdown on the injured listing because of shoulder strains. The newest of these three accidents got here in the summertime of 2021 and worn out greater than two months of Lopez’s season, however he was injury-free in 2022 when pitching to a career-high 180 innings over the lifetime of 32 begins. Final 12 months’s efficiency netted Lopez a nonetheless eminently reasonably priced $5.45MM wage. He’ll be due yet another elevate in arbitration within the 2023-24 offseason earlier than reaching free company following the 2024 marketing campaign — barring an extension, in fact.
The newly acquired Lopez will step right into a Twins rotation that additionally consists of Sonny Grey, Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle. Although it was simple to wonder if Lopez may push Kenta Maeda right into a bullpen position after he missed all the 2022 season on the heels of inner brace surgical procedure on his proper elbow in Sept. 2021, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes tweets that Maeda will stay a starter.
The likeliest odd man out of standard five-man rotation is 27-year-old Bailey Ober, however the towering righty has pitched to a pointy 3.82 ERA in 31 begins to start his large league profession — together with a 3.21 mark in 56 innings final season. (Ober missed greater than three months because of a extreme groin pressure.) Alternatively, the Twins may look to deploy a six-man rotation that may assist them handle Maeda’s workload and hopefully result in higher well being amongst a beginning employees that was usually hampered by damage all through the 2022 season.
In the meantime, with Arraez now subtracted from the Twins’ lineup, they’ll lose their leadoff man, one among their greatest hitters and one among their main choices at first base and designated hitter. His departure doubtless opens the door for 25-year-old Alex Kirilloff to fit in as the first first baseman. Kirilloff, a former first-round decide, ranked as one of many sport’s 10 to fifteen greatest prospects previous to his large league debut, however he’s now undergone wrist surgical procedure in every of the previous two seasons, derailing the begin to his profession. There’s fairly a little bit of upside there, however fairly a little bit of threat as nicely. It’s at all times potential the Twins look so as to add one other established hitter to assist soften the blow of dropping Arraez, however the first base and DH markets in free company have been largely picked over, so if that’s the route they select, it’ll doubtless have to come back by way of one other commerce.
On the opposite aspect of the swap, the Marlins will get a left-handed bat to assist stability out a closely right-handed lineup. Arraez brings to Miami maybe probably the most impeccable bat-to-ball abilities in Main League Baseball, having fanned in simply 8.3% of his plate appearances since debuting as a 22-year-old again in 2019. He doesn’t stroll at an particularly excessive clip, however Arraez’s mark of 8.7% continues to be larger than each his strikeout fee and this previous season’s league-average 8.2% stroll fee.
Arraez, 26 in April, hit .316/.375/.420 with a career-high eight house runs in 2022 and is a lifetime .314/.374/.410 hitter within the Main Leagues. His contact abilities are second to none and can doubtless at all times permit him to hit for a excessive common, however the remainder of his recreation is moderately restricted. Arraez is missing in energy, evidenced by a profession .096 ISO (slugging minus batting common), and his common dash pace is beneath common, per Statcast.
Whereas he debuted as a second baseman, defensive struggles have left Arraez as one thing of a position-less nomad. He’s bounced between second base, first base, third base and left subject, delivering lackluster defensive grades at every of these spots aside from first base. He’ll primarily play second base in Miami, with common supervisor Kim Ng subsequently asserting that Jazz Chisholm Jr. is transferring to heart subject.
Like Lopez, Arraez has some worrying damage points on his resume. A torn ACL throughout his prospect days torched his 2017 season, and he’s been on the injured listing thrice since Opening Day 2020 because of knee troubles as nicely. Arraez additionally spent per week on the 7-day concussion IL in 2021 and missed almost three weeks of that season because of a shoulder pressure.
Arraez is arbitration-eligible for the second time this offseason and, as a Tremendous Two participant, nonetheless has two years of arbitration remaining past the present marketing campaign. He and the Twins couldn’t come to phrases on an settlement previous to final week’s deadline to alternate arbitration figures; the Twins filed at a $5MM mark, whereas Arraez’s camp countered with a $6.1MM submission. Now that he’s with a brand new group, it’s potential Arraez may comply with a one-year deal someplace between these factors, or even perhaps talk about a lengthier pact. If not, his subsequent arbitration raises will take his wage north of $10MM by his closing 12 months of membership management, in 2025.
For the Marlins, dropping Lopez from the rotation positions them to deploy a beginning 5 of Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, with a number of intriguing arms nonetheless ready within the wings behind that quintet. Arraez will deepen and strengthen what’s been a lackluster Miami lineup, and the group’s rotation depth is powerful sufficient to face up to the lack of Lopez.
There’s little doubting, nonetheless, that the protection will undergo from each the acquisition of Arraez and final week’s commerce of Miguel Rojas. The Marlins now look set to play Joey Wendle at shortstop, whereas Chisholm must be taught a model new heart subject place on the fly. General, the gambit of dropping Rojas and including Arraez within the title of balancing and bettering the lineup may have the unlucky aspect impact of dropping Miami from a middle-of-the-pack defensive membership to one of many worst within the Nationwide League.
The prospects within the deal are each long-term performs for the Twins, making them considerably curious secondary items for a group that’s clearly bidding for fast rivalry within the wake of their beautiful deal to re-sign Carlos Correa. That mentioned, current trades for Mahle, Grey and others have thinned out the Twins’ system in appreciable style, so backfilling with some youthful expertise helps straddle the road of constructing for each the short- and long-term.
Salas is especially nicely regarded, initially signing for a $2.8MM bonus and at present rating fourth in Miami’s system at Baseball America. He’s a shortstop in the meanwhile, although BA’s scouting report suggests a transfer to 3rd base is feasible, relying on the extent to which his still-lean body grows. The switch-hitting Salas batted .250/.339/.384 towards vastly older competitors in 2022, splitting the 12 months between Class-A and Class-A Superior regardless of solely turning 19 this previous April.
Salas related on 9 homers and swiped 33 bases in 109 video games. Scouting experiences on Salas tout his work ethic, his really feel for contact and the potential for a minimum of common energy. He’ll instantly turn out to be one of many Twins’ prime general prospects, however he gained’t add any worth to their 2023 membership (except for maybe giving them extra flexibility in the case of negotiating extra trades).
Chourio is even youthful, having simply signed as an novice out of Venezuela one 12 months and 5 days in the past. Regardless of enjoying the season at simply 17 years outdated, the switch-hitting outfielder took the Dominican Summer time League by storm, raking at a .344/.429/.410 clip with a homer, 9 doubles, 19 steals and almost as many walks (25) as strikeouts (27) in 217 plate appearances.
Chourio gained’t even flip 18 till Might, so even wildly optimistic projections would have him three years away from being a reputable large league chance, and it’s fairly doubtless that he’s even additional off than that. Nonetheless, there’s lots to love about him regardless of the dearth of proximity to the Majors. Along with his eye-catching professional debut, Baseball America’s Ben Badler touted Chourio’s bodily projection, robust throwing arm, heart subject instincts and balanced swing when reviewing the Marlins’ worldwide signing class final 12 months.
Immediately’s commerce places an finish to months of hypothesis and rumors concerning Lopez, who lastly is aware of the place he’ll spend a minimum of the subsequent two seasons of his profession. It stays potential, given Miami’s depth and the wants they’ve elsewhere on the roster, that they might additional faucet into that group in an effort to bolster the lineup and reshape an more and more questionable protection. On the Twins’ finish of issues, Lopez isn’t clearly higher than any of their in-house choices, however they’ll add one other mid-rotation arm to a beginning employees deep in comparable skills, serving to to safeguard towards damage and including some stability past the present season, when every of Grey, Mahle and Maeda can turn out to be free brokers. They’ll additionally restock a farm system that’s been taxed by current trades, however the swap feels extra like a subsequent step than the ultimate piece of an offseason puzzle.
Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported the 2 groups have been progressing towards a deal involving Arraez and Lopez. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the deal was completed. Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reported the names of the 2 prospects going again to Minnesota (Twitter hyperlinks).
