The Minnesota Twins had a robust begin to the season, taking two of three video games towards the Kansas Metropolis Royals. However the optimistic outcomes got here with the unlucky revelations that Royce Lewis will miss a minimum of the following month, and certain longer, with a extreme proper quad pressure, and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani will miss the whole season after present process flexor tendon surgical procedure.
If you wish to know why the Twins lastly defused all of the jokes final fall by successful their first playoff video games in additional than 20 years, Lewis is likely one of the greatest solutions. After practically 4 years of accidents stored him largely off the diamond, Lewis lastly returned final Might, although he landed on the IL twice extra in 2023; an indirect pressure in early July price him about month and a half, and a hamstring pressure in the midst of September prematurely ended his common season. Nonetheless, he raked every time he was wholesome, slashing .309/.372/.548 with a 151 wRC+ and a couple of.4 WAR in simply 58 video games (239 plate appearances). His stream of pure, unadulterated awesomeness continued within the postseason as he hit 4 homers in six video games.
With the preseason hope that Lewis would get 581 plate appearances (per our Depth Charts), that was sufficient to challenge the Twins to rank fifth at third base in our positional energy rankings. He bought by means of the spring wholesome and was within the Opening Day lineup for the primary time ever, batting third and taking part in third. His 2024 debut was his profession in microcosm: He blasted a no-doubt dinger in his first plate look, lined a single his second time up, and bought harm earlier than he had an opportunity to bat once more; that damage occurred virtually instantly, whereas he was rounding second when the following batter, Carlos Correa, hit a double.
After the sport, which the Twins gained, 4-1, Lewis mentioned he was relieved that the damage was to not his knee — the identical knee that twice has required surgical procedure to restore his ACL.
Certain, Lewis and the Twins averted the worst, however that is nonetheless a brutal blow for each the participant and the crew. Over the weekend, after he was formally positioned on the IL and the magnitude of the damage had sunk in, he mentioned, “Perhaps I’m too electrical for my very own good.” Heartbreaking.
The Twins virtually definitely will take a conservative strategy together with his restoration, and upon his return, they’ll in all probability ease him again into the lineup because the designated hitter earlier than working him out as their common third baseman. Naturally, how Minnesota makes use of Lewis will even rely on the well being statuses of different gamers on the roster, most notably Byron Buxton, who is anticipated to see most of his taking part in time in middle discipline this season after his personal historical past of accidents restricted him to DH final 12 months. In Lewis’ absence, the Twins will platoon Willi Castro at third towards righty pitching, with Kyle Farmer taking part in towards lefties. If not for Lewis, Minnesota would have ranked twenty ninth in our preseason energy rankings at third, so it’s clear this duo is a short-term resolution. As of now, Depth Charts initiatives Lewis to take 405 plate appearances and accumulate 2.8 WAR at third base after he comes off the IL, however the Twins ought to begin in search of exterior replacements at third in case Lewis is restricted to DH.
Through the offseason, Minnesota picked up DeSclafani within the Jorge Polanco commerce as a solution to mitigate a few of the pitching manufacturing it will lose with out Sonny Grey, who signed with the Cardinals again in November after ending second within the AL Cy Younger voting. DeSclafani was about nearly as good as he’s ever been in 2021, his first 12 months with the Giants, when he posted a 3.17 ERA, a 3.62 FIP, and three.0 WAR in 31 begins, however an ankle damage, which required season-ending surgical procedure, restricted him to only 5 begins in 2022. He was stable for the primary few months of 2023, although it turned clear one thing was flawed when he allowed six homers in three July begins after having given up 9 in thrice as many outings to start the season. He obtained a platelet-rich plasma injection to deal with his ailing throwing arm. In early January, San Francisco traded him and Mitch Haniger to the Mariners for Robbie Ray, and some weeks later, Seattle flipped DeSclafani to Minnesota. The expectation was that he can be prepared for this season, however as his elbow continued to hassle him into the third week of March, the crew shut him down. He’ll be a free agent after this season, and it appears most certainly that he’ll find yourself signing some kind of pillow contract, reminiscent of a one-year take care of a crew possibility for a second season.
Maybe the one silver lining of DeSclafani’s damage for the Twins is its timing. As a result of it occurred early within the season earlier than he was prepared for obligation, they’ll start to search for beginning pitching options now as a substitute of scrambling afterward. Within the meantime, nevertheless, it does depart the Twins with out a lot margin for error within the rotation. If one other starter will get injured, they’d seemingly have to show to Simeon Woods Richardson, whose ZiPS projected ERA is 4.67. David Festa, the crew’s no. 3 prospect, would be capable of fill in in some unspecified time in the future later within the season, however contemplating his command issues in his 4 Triple-A begins up to now — three in 2023 and one up to now this 12 months — Minnesota virtually definitely gained’t name him up if one thing occurs over the following few weeks. Our Depth Charts has the Twins dropping about 0.7 wins within the rotation from the preseason projections. ZiPS, which typically takes a extra unfavorable view of pitcher well being, has the change at 1.2 wins, reflecting Minnesota’s points if it has to dip too far into its starter pool.
ZiPS noticed the Twins as a .531 crew getting into the season and now initiatives them to have a .525 successful proportion over the remainder of the season. Whereas that doesn’t sound horrible at first look, ZiPS projected a good tighter AL Central race than the FanGraphs preseason standings, with the Twins ending solely a sport forward of Guardians within the median projections. ZiPS now views the divisional odds for the 2 groups to be a digital tie, with the Twins sustaining a really slight 39.5% to 39.3% lead.
After a two-game sequence towards the Brewers, the Twins begin a stretch through which they play 10 of 16 video games towards the 2 AL Central groups they need to most be apprehensive about this 12 months, the Guardians and Tigers. Minnesota was already fearing the worst when it shut down DeSclafani just a few weeks in the past — with Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reporting on March 22 that DeSclafani “might by no means throw a pitch for the Twins” — so it’s secure to imagine the crew wasn’t anticipating him to be again in time for this early stretch. Nevertheless, the Twins had been hopeful that Lewis can be within the lineup. Taken in tandem, the information is a serious setback in a season that bought off to a promising begin.
