I hope that you simply spared a thought over the vacations for the poor Naylor brothers. In a premise tailored for a lesser Hallmark film, their time as teammates got here to an finish simply 4 days earlier than Christmas, when the Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks in alternate for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a Aggressive Steadiness Spherical B draft decide. Simply 21 minutes after Jeff Passan broke the information that broke up the household, he additionally reported that veteran first baseman Carlos Santana had agreed to a one-year, $12-million deal to fill the opening Naylor left within the Cleveland infield. He did not report on what, if something, would fill the opening left in Bo Naylor’s coronary heart.
After 5 years away, Santana is coming house to Cleveland for the third time — one other strong premise for a Hallmark film. Actually, he nonetheless has a house in Cleveland. Or he did, anyway. He advertise just a few weeks in the past and closed on a sale two days earlier than signing with the Guardians. One other enjoyable aspect word to Santana’s signing: He very almost busted the We Tried Tracker. Ken Rosenthal listed seven different groups that have been in on Santana: “The Seattle Mariners, Santana’s crew in 2022, sought to reunite with him just about your complete offseason, and have been pushing for a decision. Santana stated each New York groups, Detroit and Arizona additionally have been within the combine, whereas San Diego and Texas had requested him to attend.” When you’re maintaining rating at house, that’s 4 groups that have been within the combine, two within the brand-new class of asking the participant to attend, after which the terribly thirsty Mariners. As you will have seen, Rosenthal is citing Santana himself because the supply for this info. If extra gamers spoke to reporters concerning the curiosity they acquired, the tracker would look much more strong.
After operating a mixed wRC+ of 94 from 2020 to 2023, Santana abruptly rediscovered his kind with the Twins in 2024. In his age-38 season, Santana ran a 114 wRC+ with 23 house runs, and his 11 fielding runs earned him his first Gold Glove. He racked up 3.0 WAR, greater than he totaled in all however two of his 15 years within the massive leagues, and good for the fifth-most WAR amongst first basemen final season. His common contact high quality didn’t stray removed from his profession norms, and his vaunted batting eye remained about as robust as ever. The large distinction is that 23.8% of his batted balls got here within the type of line drives or fly balls to the pull aspect. That’s his highest charge since 2014. Specializing in pull-side energy has been a significant organizational focus for the Twins, a lot in order that earlier than the season, Trevor Larnach determined he’d gone too far in that course and wanted to develop a extra balanced strategy. Whether or not or not the Twins have been chargeable for it, this strategy change actually labored for Santana, and the Guardians are hoping that he can preserve each the bat and the glove going for yet one more yr.
As for the Diamondbacks, they’re in for his or her first style of life and not using a cornerstone on the chilly nook since 2010. Naylor might not be peak Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker, however he’s been a top-10 first baseman over the previous three years. As slugging first basemen who play greater than the numbers counsel, Naylor and Santana have so much in widespread. Each gamers are below six toes tall and each depend upon the house run ball regardless of missing jaw-dropping exit velocities. Naylor hits the ball on the bottom extra usually and lacks Santana’s reward for staying throughout the strike zone, however he hits the ball more durable. Regardless of comparable common exit velocities and hard-hit charges, Naylor’s ninetieth percentile exit velocity was 106 mph, considerably increased than Santana’s 103.7-mph mark. In 2024, regardless of operating a bottom-quartile groundball charge, Naylor put up the primary 30-homer season of his profession, to go together with a 118 wRC+. He’s now reached that mark or increased in every of the final three seasons. His 2.3 WAR ranked eleventh amongst first basemen in 2024, and his 7.0 WAR over the previous three seasons ranked eighth.
Santana’s deal is for precisely the identical quantity as MLB Commerce Rumors predicted that Naylor would get in his ultimate yr of arbitration, and that’s what makes this such a Cleveland transfer. The Guardians are taking over extra threat on account of Santana’s age and giving up Naylor’s increased upside, however basically, they swapped out two related gamers for an identical costs and wound up with a draft decide and an fascinating arm in Cecconi. Steamer tasks Naylor to place up 2.0 WAR subsequent season, in comparison with 1.2 for Santana. You may perceive why, on the “5 and Dive” podcast, Jeffrey Paternostro known as the transfer, “so Guardians (derogatory).” It took a complete lot of labor for Cleveland to make its first base state of affairs a bit dicier in alternate for a pair longshots.
Cecconi introduced his arrival in Arizona with a bang in 2023, and I imply that very actually. He made 4 begins and three aid appearances, operating a 4.33 ERA and 4.37 FIP. Cecconi entered the 2024 season because the D-backs’ no. 5 total prospect and their system’s top-ranked pitcher, however he struggled mightily, operating a 6.66 ERA and 5.02 FIP. He bounced between the minors and majors, and he was despatched to the bullpen in late July, however his 4.49 xERA and 4.70 xFIP — whereas nonetheless nothing to write down house about — have been a lot much less worrisome. Cecconi doesn’t rack up many whiffs or strikeouts, he doesn’t run an amazing groundball charge, and he doesn’t keep away from arduous contact. However what he does have is strong management, a fastball that may attain 98 mph, three different pitches that grade out as above common in keeping with Pitching Bot, Stuff+, and StuffPro, and 0.155 years of service time.
The Rays have been rumored to be keen on him on the commerce deadline, and it’s totally attainable that the Guardians flip him right into a serviceable pitcher. Though the fastball can attain 98, it averages nearer to 94 and obtained rocked final season. Someway, the Diamondbacks let Cecconi throw it 55% of the time anyway. Possibly the Guardians will get him within the pitching lab and assist him work out a fastball that works. Possibly they’ll make him a full-time reliever to bump his velocity again as much as the highest of its vary. They’ll positively have him throw his heater much less usually. Then once more, possibly they only wished that draft decide.
