These Three Hitters Can Hit Their Peak Projection in 2024

Amongst different issues, we at FanGraphs are recognized for our projections, particularly right now of yr. We wish to assume that’s as a result of our projection methods are good! But it surely’s price remembering that projections at all times embody uncertainly. ZiPS, for instance, displays a spread of projected outcomes primarily based on 1,000,000 simulations of the approaching season, with the primary percentile representing the worst projected efficiency and the 99th percentile, one of the best. The numbers you see on our participant pages mirror the fiftieth percentile projection — the median projected end result — for every participant.

For me, the enjoyable begins when the projections are reside, as a result of I exploit them as a place to begin to start my very own evaluation utilizing knowledge factors that aren’t folded into the participant projections, equivalent to video and bat monitoring data. I like utilizing these instruments as a result of they permit me to see whether or not a participant has a basis in place that might assist him exceed his median projection. For this piece, I wish to give attention to gamers’ potential ceilings, which I’ll outline as their ninetieth percentile projection, in order that we are able to keep inside the realm of chance. (Theoretically, a participant might hit 80 house runs this season, which might absolutely be his peak efficiency, however that’s so extraordinarily unlikely to occur that it isn’t price contemplating right here.) From the mannequin’s perspective, all gamers’ ninetieth percentile outcomes are equally probably; my evaluation is extra subjective. I’ll use further data to strengthen confidence {that a} participant can certainly attain his ceiling.

The purpose right here was to have a look at gamers who’ve numerous uncertainty of their projections, on account of a unstable profile, an unproven observe report, or each. From there, I settled on a bunch of three inherently dangerous gamers who’ve particular traits that I believe ought to result in a right away enchancment. With that stated, let’s get began:

I’ve offered Adolis García’s 2023 efficiency to offer a comparability to his 2024 projections. Going into final season, García’s fiftieth percentile OPS+ and WAR had been 103 and a couple of.0, respectively, which means that his precise manufacturing vastly exceeded his median projection. In response to this, ZiPS is extra assured in García coming into this season, at the same time as his profile stays unstable.

Is it potential for him to get much more out of his bat this season? I believe so. When it comes to plate self-discipline and swing choices, García made a major stride ahead in 2023. Nevertheless, his projections anticipate his BB/Okay ratio to regress from his .37 mark final season and be nearer to his 2022 stage of .22. Utilizing Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which calculates a mixture of selectivity and strategic aggression, García scored a 19.4% final yr. That was within the 88th percentile of hitters, an enchancment from being barely above common in 2022.

García barely improved his Hittable Pitch Take%, whereas concurrently rising his Selectivity% by practically 5 proportion factors. Sure, that helped him draw extra walks than was anticipated of him, nevertheless it additionally allowed him to crush 39 homers. García is following an intuitive path to plate self-discipline enchancment. After posting backside decile whiff and chase charges in 2021 and 2022, he considerably reduce down on his chasing final yr. Now that he has confirmed to own a greater understanding of the strike zone, the following step is to cease whiffing as a lot. His mechanics are environment friendly, his plate protection is nice, and he has already proven a knack for enchancment. That’s a darn good recipe for a participant trying to get essentially the most out of his expertise.

García’s case is a bit easier than the 2 gamers we’ll focus on subsequent. Let’s transfer onto one other gifted outfielder:

I’m a Riley Greene believer. My expectations for him final yr had been greater than the place his efficiency fell, however he additionally had two unlikely accidents that might clarify his underwhelming season. In Could, he had a stress fracture in his fibula that induced him to overlook simply over a month. Then, after wanting incredible in his return, he tore his UCL in his non-throwing arm. It was a weird little bit of luck for a participant trying to show himself as a cornerstone piece in Detroit. His projections for 2024 mirror a large web of uncertainty in his offensive profile, but in addition a excessive ceiling as a result of he boasts nice hitting expertise and is simply coming into his age-23 season.

Greene hits the snot out of the ball. His xwOBACON of .477 was within the high 4% of the league. His potential to control his posture to get to completely different pitch heights permits him to have nice plate protection. His common 40.4-degree Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) – the angle of the barrel relative to the bottom at impression – is among the many steepest within the majors, and he combines it with a path that at all times works up and thru the baseball. Consequently, he has a great launch-angle distribution and constantly flush batted-ball spin. Listed below are a number of movies of him overlaying pitches all around the strike zone:

Velocity up? Test. Sluggish and away? Test. Again foot breaker? Test. His swing is so versatile due to how he alters his torso tilt whereas nonetheless sustaining upward angles on his swings. He’s able to attending to absolutely anything, which is why he was so good in opposition to breaking balls on the season, with with a .366 xwOBA in opposition to them that ranked 18th amongst 260 hitters who noticed at the least 400 such pitches in 2023. His proficient barrel and physique variabilities are the precise expertise I’m on the lookout for when betting on a participant to hit his ceiling, particularly if the hitter impacts the ball like Greene does. With well being and higher managed aggression, Greene will put himself in an ideal place to hit his ninetieth percentile end result. A 151 OPS+ could be a significant step up from the 117 he posted final yr, however at instances, he has already flashed that stage of dominance. The ultimate piece of the puzzle is consistency.

Now, let’s consider an thrilling younger catcher trying to show his 2023 season was no fluke:

Bo Naylor hit his tail off final yr to the tune of a 124 wRC+. In a Guardians lineup that didn’t have a lot past José Ramírez and older brother Josh Naylor, Bo emerged as one of many workforce’s high offensive contributors from the second he cemented himself as the first catcher. His nice efficiency, albeit in restricted time, is mirrored in his ceiling, whereas his flooring relies on his lack of a observe report within the majors.

It’s signal at any time when a younger catcher has such a stable fiftieth percentile projection, although in Naylor’s case, the expectation is that his energy will drop off. That’s cheap when you think about his .232 ISO final yr would’ve been third amongst catchers with at the least 300 plate appearances, even though his 30.8% hard-hit fee would’ve ranked 235th among the many 258 certified hitters, in response to Baseball Savant. On high of that, Naylor outpaced his anticipated statistics by fairly a large margin. His .347 wOBA was significantly greater than his .309 xwOBA and his .379 xSLG was far off from his .470 mark. However wait a minute — we all know that there’s generally extra to uncover once we see discrepancies like this. Is Naylor a type of instances?

Of the 406 gamers final yr who had at the least 100 batted balls, Naylor ranked 18th in Pulled FB% (sourced from Orr’s leaderboards once more). If Naylor is among the higher gamers within the recreation at pulling fly balls constantly, then he ought to have the ability to outperform his anticipated statistics once more in 2024. Does he have the swing mechanics and path to maintain up this tempo? Naylor, a left-handed batter, is usually hitting with the platoon benefit, making it simpler for him to create the Horizontal Bat Angles (HBA) required to tug these pitches constantly. Matchups with righty pitchers are perfect for lefty hitters with pulled fly ball approaches. Listed below are a number of clips that present him executing that swing on completely different pitches:

Naylor goes to be challenged to hit pitches away from his physique to the pull facet, but when he can preserve that entrance facet locked like he did in these swings, he might be able to sustain his pull facet success regardless of the dearth of uncooked energy. In these swings, he confirmed that he can activate 99 mph warmth, but in addition that he can keep disciplined sufficient to attend on an 88 mph changeup. Given what we learn about his persistence and plate self-discipline, Naylor is the kind of participant who ought to have the ability to match his swing choices along with his swing strengths. That’s an necessary talent that might assist him construct upon his spectacular debut.