![Yu Darvish](https://i0.wp.com/blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/USATSI_19002254.jpg?resize=1200%2C628)
Be trustworthy: you didn’t suppose A.J. Preller was carried out with headline-making this offseason, did you? The Padres have constructed a workforce via outrageous swings — trades that nobody else in baseball would try and free-agent signings that make opposing groups whine with envy. After signing Xander Bogaerts earlier this offseason, although, it appeared like even Preller may be out of strikes. There was nobody left to signal, nobody left to commerce for.
The joke’s on us, although, as a result of the Padres discovered a brand new technique to make information: they signed Yu Darvish to a six-year extension price $108 million, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reported. The deal replaces the ultimate yr of his present contract, which might have ended after this yr. As an alternative of hitting free company, Darvish will stay a Padre, presumably for all times at this level.
Darvish has lengthy been considered one of my favourite pitchers thanks largely to his dizzying array of pitches. He threw six totally different ones a minimum of 5% of the time final yr and even dabbled with two extra. Six pitches, six years: I do know an article setup after I see one. Should you’ll indulge me in some gratuitous gif-posting, I’ll stroll you thru six methods to consider this contract.
12 months One: Slider, San Diego’s Rotation
Most pitchers throw their fastball as a main pitch. It’s a math factor, kind of: fastballs are the primary choice in a ton of counts, in order that they find yourself as the most typical providing total even when a secondary pitch does the heavy lifting of getting outs. Not so with Darvish. He leads together with his slider, throwing it 45% of the time (I’m utilizing Pitch Information classification on this article, for the file). It’s onerous to think about somebody throwing six totally different pitches and in addition throwing considered one of them half the time. It’s even more durable to think about that one featured pitch being something apart from a fastball. However that’s Darvish for you — onerous to wrap your head round.
He can get away with utilizing his slider a lot as a result of he instructions it exceptionally properly, throwing it within the strike zone almost 60% of the time. That’s the third-highest charge in baseball for any slider or cutter (classification methods differ on what precisely he throws). On the entire, the league hits the zone solely 46% of the time after they go to sliders or cutters. By flooding the zone with a hard-to-hit pitch, Darvish has made a profession out of creating batters look silly.
Final yr, Darvish was one of the best pitcher in San Diego. His 3.10 ERA was top-of-the-line marks of his profession regardless of a declining strikeout charge, which he made up for by strolling a miniscule 4.8% of opposing batters. He turned in his third season out of the final 4 with a minimum of 30 begins, and the one exception was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the place he didn’t miss a rotation flip. That sort of stability is new for Darvish, and it’s been tremendously helpful for the Padres, who’re quick on rotation depth regardless of a scintillating prime finish.
Joe Musgrove is beneath contract via the 2027 season, however till the Padres signed Darvish, he was the one established starter beneath contract after this yr. Blake Snell shall be a free agent, and Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez are relievers making an attempt to make the transition (again) to the rotation. This Padres workforce is constructed to win within the subsequent two years — the size of time Juan Soto is beneath workforce management — or maybe the following 4 or so relying on the remainder of the roster. Manny Machado and Bogaerts are on the tail finish of their prime, however they’ll present star-level manufacturing for years to come back, pending Machado’s decide out after this yr. By extending Darvish, the Padres have given themselves extra runway to compete with out venturing exterior the franchise for extra star pitching.
12 months Two: 4-Seamer, Contract Assure
Darvish doesn’t characteristic his slider as a result of he has a nasty fastball; he options his slider as a result of it’s top-of-the-line pitches in baseball. His fastball isn’t any slouch, although it’s extra plus than standout. He sits 94–96 mph with it and may nonetheless prime out above 98 when he wants it, but it surely’s much less a bully-ball pitch than a vital complement to the remainder of his choices.
It hardly appears truthful that Darvish, who constructed his popularity on the sheer dazzling array of choices he brings to the desk, also needs to have a great fastball. However he does, and that helps clarify why his profession strikeout charge is a staggering 29.3%. Give an in any other case odd pitcher Darvish’s fastball, and so they’d be above common. Give it to somebody whose slider is likely one of the finest pitches of all time, and the outcomes communicate for themselves.
Provided that resume and Darvish’s latest run of well being, $18 million per yr appears like an enormous cut price for San Diego. That’s what Taijuan Walker simply received, and whereas he’s a wonderfully good pitcher, I imply, come on. Darvish is likely one of the finest pitchers of the final era, and he put up nearly as a lot WAR in 2022 alone as Walker has prior to now 5 seasons. What’s happening right here?
What’s happening is that the contract is paying Darvish far into the long run. He’ll be 42 within the final yr of this deal. Precisely one participant over the age of 35 signed a free-agent contract of three or extra years this offseason: José Abreu, at three precisely. In 2022, solely Max Scherzer cleared that two-year bar. In 2020 and ’21, nobody did. The size of Darvish’s deal implies that the typical annual worth is much less related than the whole assure; $108 million would appear fairly cheap over 4 years, and he’s going to be round for 2 years after that.
12 months Three: Sinker, Aggressive Stability Tax
Darvish’s sinker might be the least thrilling of his pitches, however he makes use of it to combine up his arsenal and hold his four-seamer much less predictable. It’s not sufficient to know that he’s throwing a fastball; in the event you’re sitting on it, which is a brilliant technique to assault a pitcher with so many plus secondaries, you would possibly get a fastball and nonetheless swing within the fallacious place.
Like his sinker, Darvish’s deal is misleading. The important thing factor it does, from San Diego’s standpoint, is unfold out the cash owed to him from a aggressive steadiness tax perspective. The Padres have paid the tax for 2 straight years, and so they’ll simply clear that bar once more in 2023. That implies that they owe 50% on the primary $20 million over the $233 million cap, 62% on the following $20 million, after which 95% thereafter. We undertaking them for a payroll of roughly $287 million, which implies they owe 95 cents in tax for each marginal greenback they spend.
Darvish’s contract extension replaces his 2023 wage of $19 million, which carried a CBT hit of $21.5 million due to the typical annual worth of that earlier deal. The Padres are saving $3.5 million in tax quantity with this deal, which is able to save them $3.325 million in precise tax funds. That’s a significant amount of cash — hardly franchise-altering stuff, but additionally not a rounding error.
In 2024, the Padres will get an identical enhance from having Darvish on their cap for less than $18 million. Given the form of their roster, they’ll nearly actually exceed the CBT threshold that yr too, and in the event you suppose it will value $25 million to safe Darvish on a extra regular contract, that’s one other $6.65 million in tax financial savings. We’re speaking about $10 million {dollars}, roughly a Drew Pomeranz price, purely because of contract structuring.
12 months 4: Cutter, Projections
Darvish’s cutter may be a slider. Or possibly his slider is a cutter. No matter you need to name it, it’s considered one of his only pitches. It’s a classification nightmare and in addition a hitting nightmare. Like his slider, he throws it within the strike zone fairly ceaselessly, however in the event you’re searching for the slider, you’ll miss this pitch by a mile; the cutter falls 13 inches lower than his slider on its flight dwelling and has much less horizontal chunk. It’s one other case of disrupting timing; even when a batter accurately works out {that a} gyro-based breaking pitch is coming, they may get the motion of the pitch fallacious.
One factor San Diego hopes is fallacious: ZiPS projections. ZiPS thinks Darvish is pitching on borrowed time, with not a single ERA+ above 100 within the subsequent six years, and quickly declining innings totals besides:
ZiPS Projection – Yu Darvish
12 months
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2023
11
9
3.83
27
27
167.0
141
71
24
38
168
99
2.2
2024
9
9
4.12
24
24
144.3
129
66
23
35
138
92
1.4
2025
7
8
4.45
21
21
125.3
119
62
22
33
115
85
0.7
2026
5
6
4.87
16
16
88.7
90
48
17
27
78
78
0.0
2027
3
6
5.40
12
12
70.0
75
42
15
24
59
70
-0.4
2028
2
5
5.94
9
9
50.0
58
33
12
19
40
64
-0.7
Yeesh. If ZiPS is true, possibly Taijuan Walker was too optimistic of a comparability. Regardless of a stable 2022, Darvish’s peripherals are worrisome; his swinging-strike charge has declined for 2 straight years, and final season represented the bottom strikeout charge of his profession. He additionally posted his lowest groundball charge; extra balls in play and extra balls within the air is a scary mixture.
ZiPS is extra pessimistic than Steamer right here, and I’m not bought on its conclusion. A 2.2 WAR full season could be the worst of Darvish’s profession. “Pitchers don’t age, they break” is an overused assertion, but it surely’s overused as a result of it usually tracks with actuality. Nonetheless, ZiPS is sweet at what it does, and it actually doesn’t like this deal.
12 months 5: Curveball, Backside Line
Goodness do I take pleasure in a Yu Darvish curveball. I like the audacity of it; how can somebody who throws 98 additionally lob in a mid-70s lollipop with such sharp downward break? It generates extra swinging strikes than his slider, largely as a result of he makes use of it in counts the place hitters want to guard the plate. He nearly by no means throws it when behind within the depend, preferring as a substitute to put it aside to press his benefit. He even drops within the occasional ultra-slow curve; he’s thrown a pitch under 70 mph in every of the final 4 seasons, bottoming out at 64 in 2022.
I feel this extension is the sort of deal that the Padres really feel compelled to make. They’ve pushed their chips in, so to talk, making a powerhouse that may compete for World Sequence titles proper now with little regard for the long run. It’s most likely unrealistic to anticipate them to maintain Soto on the town, although I’m positive they’ll attempt their hardest. Machado and Bogaerts are nice now however each of their 30s. The pitching employees doesn’t have many reinforcements coming, and Snell appears more likely to depart after this yr together with Josh Hader.
That’s not the worst of it. We charge their farm system as one of many worst within the majors, due to the hauls they’ve despatched out in recent times to deliver stars again. A key cause their present roster works is that Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola will make a mixed $9.75 million in 2023. And their arb payouts will enhance, which is able to make filling different roster holes more durable.
As my colleague Dan Szymborski identified, there’s some Louis XIV-style nihilism happening right here. “Apres moi, le deluge,” the Solar King famously mentioned, and Preller is constructing his workforce in related trend. The Padres are superior now, and so they’ve made the playoffs in two out of the previous three years to interrupt an extended drought. Perhaps their farm system will churn out new expertise to interchange what they lose within the coming years, however they may by no means be higher than they’re within the subsequent two years.
Provided that backdrop, you’ll be able to hardly blame them for steering into the skid. Who cares in regards to the again finish of Darvish’s deal if the workforce shall be in a down interval then anyway? The 2026 season is a good distance away, and 2028 additional nonetheless. Collect ye rosebuds whereas ye might, to steal one more phrase from historical past. Now’s the time to be daring.
Even in the event you take a rosier view of Darvish than ZiPS, this deal feels a contact wealthy. Let’s go away 2023 out of it; I don’t suppose anybody was going to supply him $89 million from 2024 onwards. The contract solely is sensible in the event you’re keen to simply accept a nasty deal in pursuit of super-charging the workforce now.
I suppose that’s what the Padres are as much as. There wasn’t any apparent means so as to add one other good pitcher for 2024 with no long-term dedication, in order that they made the lowest-AAV dedication they might to return somebody good. It’s going to sting within the latter a part of the deal, however whenever you’ve painted your self right into a nook, you do what that you must do to push ahead. Perhaps the trail the Padres are on received’t work, however in the event you’re on that path, I don’t understand how else you discover a top-of-rotation starter for subsequent yr.
12 months Six: Splitter, Historical past
I saved one of the best for final. Darvish’s splitter is jaw-dropping, the sort of pitch that batters both take or swing over. He is aware of it, and so they realize it, which creates a pleasant guessing recreation. Can he land the pitch for a strike? Unlikely. Can they hit it in the event that they swing? Additionally unlikely. Either side know the stakes, which supplies each two-strike depend a gripping plot hook. And no, in the event you’re curious, Freddie Freeman didn’t attain first base safely up above, although it was a bang-bang play.
Lately, Darvish has thrown his splitter greater than ever. It doesn’t seem to have hit a degree of diminishing returns simply but. He’s drawing unhealthy swings as ceaselessly as ever and recorded a strikeout on 1 / 4 of the two-strike splitters he threw final yr. He would possibly be capable to beat hitters with something, however his split-finger is the nastiest, most whiff-inducing weapon in his arsenal.
Darvish most likely received’t make the Corridor of Fame, however he’d be a shoo-in for the Corridor of Very Good. He joined the Rangers in 2012 after beginning a embellished profession in Japan, and he’s been the Eleventh-best pitcher by fWAR since then, ninth-best by RA9-WAR. He’s carried out that regardless of two-plus wasted years; he made solely 39 begins from 2014 to ’16 due to Tommy John surgical procedure and missed most of ’18 due to a stress response in his elbow.
When he’s been accessible, he’s constantly been electrical. He throws no matter pitch he appears like, in any depend conceivable. He learns pitches from teammates and integrates them seamlessly; he briefly threw Craig Kimbrel’s knuckle curve after they have been each Cubs, for instance. He’s every little thing, in all places, suddenly, and he appears like he’s having enjoyable whereas doing it.
For me, Darvish is inextricably linked with the rise of web video. Fifteen years in the past, you couldn’t hop on-line and watch an limitless stream of one of the best particular person pitches in baseball. I do know Randy Johnson was nice — I watched him pitch in fairly just a few video games — however I can’t conjure his particular person pitches to thoughts the way in which I can with Darvish, as a result of it merely wasn’t straightforward to observe the sport in that trend again then. Even Darvish’s supply appears made for video: that pause on the prime of his windup provides you a second to gather your self earlier than you watch the principle occasion.
His profession isn’t carried out but. ZiPS is down on his future, however I’m positive ZiPS was down on Justin Verlander’s future at his nadir in Detroit, and everyone knows how that labored out. Darvish goes to have years to write down his remaining act, and by re-upping with San Diego, he’s assured that he’ll be in high-pressure conditions for the following few years.
In my opinion, I hope Darvish finishes robust. He’s made me like baseball extra, which is a excessive praise. That doesn’t change the calculus of the deal, and it doesn’t change San Diego’s unsure future, but it surely’s price remembering in any case. He’ll present but one more reason to maintain your eyes on the Padres within the subsequent few years, as in the event that they wanted any extra.