The refs didn’t steal a Super Bowl trip from the Bills. The Chiefs’ excellence did | NFL

From 1967 by way of 1975, the Oakland Raiders have been essentially the most profitable group in skilled soccer … within the common season. They compiled a file of 95-24-7, and that profitable share of .798 was a full 70 share factors larger than the second-best group, the Dallas Cowboys. These Raiders have been full of future Corridor of Famers, and so they had John Madden, one of many NFL’s finest coaches, for many of that span.

And all through that point, they have been stopped from profitable the large one by a number of totally different dynasties. They misplaced Tremendous Bowl II to the Inexperienced Bay Packers, and have been crossed off in successive seasons within the playoffs by the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers – two extra all-time groups. Oakland’s 7-8 postseason file tended to render every part else irrelevant. It wasn’t till 1976, when the Raiders went 13-1 within the common season and poleaxed the Minnesota Vikings in Tremendous Bowl XI, that they lastly obtained that albatross off their backs.

For the Buffalo Payments of the Josh Allen period, there’s nonetheless that very same albatross, although there’s just one dynasty that has stood of their approach. That, in fact, can be the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, who labored previous the Payments as soon as once more in a hard-fought 32-29 win on Sunday night time. The Payments had their probabilities on this one, as they’ve in most of their postseason video games in opposition to Patrick Mahomes and his crew, however issues are inclined to end up the way in which they end up.

Since 2018, the Payments have 77 regular-season wins, third-most within the NFL behind the Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. However the 7-6 postseason file, and all these losses to the Chiefs, will proceed to sting. Their 84 wins in that point are essentially the most by any group in a seven-year span by no means to make the Tremendous Bowl.

“It was not the end result we wished,” Payments head coach Sean McDermott stated postgame, when requested what he advised his gamers. “I advised them that that they had nothing to be ashamed of; they gave all of it that they had, and I like them.”

McDermott stated nothing in regards to the officers, and as a lot as folks need to imagine that the refs have it within the bag for the Chiefs, stated officers ought to by no means have been within the place they have been on this recreation’s pivotal second. With 13:01 left within the fourth quarter, Josh Allen tried to transform fourth-and-one from the Kansas Metropolis 41-yard line. The Payments have been up 22-21 at this level, so a drive-extending conversion would have been big. It was an in depth name both approach, and two officers on referee Clete Blakeman’s crew made totally different preliminary calls on the play – one dominated for a profitable conversion, and one didn’t – and ultimately, it was dominated that Allen didn’t make it.

Initially, the Chiefs’ protection had this on lock all through the sport. Second of all, many coaches and executives across the league have pleaded their circumstances to the NFL’s Competitors Committee how ridiculous it’s that conversions are dominated upon with no technical help versus a few zebras and one other official holding a first-down marker.

Al Davis, who ran these old-school Raiders brilliantly, beloved to say that the refs had it out for his groups as a result of he had a fractious relationship with then-NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle. The Payments have been classier about the entire thing, most probably as a result of they knew that it was actually – and as normal – in regards to the alternatives the Chiefs had and exploited, ones that the Payments couldn’t.

There have been a number of turning factors on this recreation, and even when the Payments have been in a position to reply, the Chiefs simply had – as they’ve all season lengthy.

That failed fourth-down conversion within the fourth quarter led to Mahomes’ landing run, and gave the Chiefs the lead once more. Mahomes was in a position to convert his two-point try when Allen wasn’t on Buffalo’s landing drive, and that was one more little loss of life for the Payments.

The Payments had a bonus with their run recreation that confirmed up in Week 11 of the common season, once they beat the Chiefs, 30-21 and scored three speeding touchdowns. But it surely wasn’t till the center of the third quarter that Buffalo lastly led with it. Down 21-16 with 10:01 left within the third quarter, the Payments went on an excellent 12-play, 80-yard drive with only one move play, and James Prepare dinner’s one-yard landing that put the Payments up, 22-21.

We will cube up all the explanations the Payments can’t get previous the Chiefs, however ultimately, it’s not too dissimilar from the questions these Raiders have been asking themselves once they went up in opposition to Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, and Chuck Noll.

Generally, your dynastic opponents simply have extra on the ball when it counts than you do. That’s why they’re dynasties.

MVP of the week

Howie Roseman, normal supervisor, Philadelphia Eagles. Roseman had already established himself as one of many NFL’s in a position personnel executives earlier than the 2024 season, however this previous offseason needs to be thought of top-of-the-line in professional soccer historical past. The 2023 Eagles began their season with a 10-1 file, fell embarrassingly to 11-6, after which obtained blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers within the wildcard spherical.

And that’s when Roseman went to work. He changed offensive coordinator Brian Johnson with Kellen Moore, and defensive coordinator Sean Desai with Vic Fangio. He signed former Giants operating again Saquon Barkley to a three-year, $37.75m contract with $26m assured, which was thought of an overpay on the time, and has grow to be top-of-the-line free-agent signings ever. Roseman signed former New Orleans Saints bit-player Zack Baun to a one-year, $3.5m contract that made no waves in any respect. However Fangio noticed one thing in Baun, and turned him into an All-Professional stage off-ball linebacker and pass-rusher.

Then, there was the 2024 draft, which the Eagles completely nailed. Cornerback Qionyon Mitchell and defensive again Cooper DeJean, the group’s first two picks, turned equally indispensable elements in Fangio’s protection. They’re main causes that the Eagles jumped from twenty ninth in Defensive DVOA in 2023 to first general this time round. Defensive deal with Jalen Carter and edge-rusher Nolan Smith, Philly’s first two picks within the 2023 draft, have every elevated their circumstances for dominance.

Nearly every part Roseman has touched this season has turned to gold, and there’s much more than luck in that equation. If the Eagles are in a position to vanquish the Chiefs, and precise revenge for his or her loss to Kansas Metropolis in Tremendous Bowl LVII, you possibly can level to Roseman as the principle purpose why.

Video of the week

Why are the Chiefs practically infallible in one-score video games? Why do they all the time appear to get it performed on the most important moments? Why are these annoying folks so darned computerized? Why are they now on the verge of the primary three-peat within the Tremendous Bowl period?

As a result of ultimately, they one-up their opponents from a schematic perspective.

This was completely the case on the Payments’ remaining offensive play of Sunday’s recreation. With 2:00 left on the clock, the Payments had fourth-and-five at their very own 47-yard line. Should you’ve studied the Chiefs’ defensive tendencies over time, you’re in all probability conscious that when opposing offenses line up in condensed formations the place the ability place gamers are nearer to the middle, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will blitz his defensive backs. Right here, the Payments lined up in a condensed formation, Spags referred to as his normal jailbreak blitz, a number of free rushers obtained by way of, Allen needed to scramble, and he threw up a desperation heave downfield to tight finish Dalton Kincaid … which Kincaid by some means practically caught.

But it surely was to not be, and one wonders why Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady – who is usually nice together with his play calls – didn’t have a “scorching alert” (a receiver open for a brief move) to counter what has been an absolute Chiefs tendency for a very long time.

Stat of the week

Seven. That’s what number of speeding touchdowns the Washington Commanders conceded to Philadelphia in a 55-23 beatdown that sends the Eagles to the Tremendous Bowl for the second time in three seasons. We all know that the Eagles have led with their run recreation all season lengthy, which has been the suitable name, given Barkley’s utter dominance and the iffy nature of the passing recreation with Jalen Hurts – who, in equity, regarded fairly good on Sunday.

However this was a unique breed of cat. The Commanders began the sport with an 18-play, 54-yard drive that took 7:03 off the clock, and ended with a discipline aim. The Eagles’ response was a one-play, 60-yard drive that was one more Barkley explosive run.

And with that, and linebacker Bobby Wagner tripping over edge-rusher Dante Fowler Jr, the tone was set. Hurts had a adequate recreation as a passer, finishing 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards, one landing, no interceptions, and a passer score of 110.1. However what Hurts did as a runner was large – he gained simply 16 yards on 10 carries, however three have been for touchdowns. Barkley was his normal indomitable self, with 118 yards and three touchdowns on simply 15 carries. Fourth-round rookie again Will Shipley obtained in on the motion in rubbish time with 77 yards and a landing on simply 4 carries.

The Commanders knew they must take care of the Eagles operating the ball time and again, and so they nonetheless couldn’t cease any of it. They’d seven defenders within the field on that first Barkley landing run, and so they stacked the field greater than they didn’t. Which says as a lot about what the Eagles did because it does about what the Commanders couldn’t do.

It was a brutal finish to the Commanders’ wonderful season, however their run is simply starting. They’ve maybe the best rookie quarterback of all time in Jayden Daniels, they’re not that far-off with all the opposite elements of their roster, and the teaching (beginning with head coach Dan Quinn) is excellent. This was a case the place the Commanders, who break up their regular-season video games with the Eagles, ran right into a buzzsaw, and had no strategy to cease it. This was a formidable (and essential) full rebuild, and it labored marvelously till it didn’t.

The opposite stat that killed the Commanders? A 4-0 turnover differential in Philly’s favor. Per Subsequent Gen Stats, Washington’s three fumbles (the fourth turnover was a late-game Daniels interception) purchased the Eagles +23.6% in win likelihood. Washington by no means had a win likelihood of fifty% or extra at any level within the recreation.

Elsewhere across the league

— On Friday, the Dallas Cowboys introduced that the group’s offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer can be their new head coach, changing Mike McCarthy. No offense to Schottenheimer, however this has been universally pilloried as one more uninspired rent by Jerry Jones – basically, that Schottenheimer doesn’t have the load behind his identify to push again on any personnel choices made by Jones and his son Stephen, who run issues in Large D. Schottenheimer’s 2023 Cowboys offense ranked fifth in yards and first in factors, however dropped to seventeenth in yards and twenty first in factors final season. Not that it was all his fault by far – accidents to a number of offensive gamers (particularly quarterback Dak Prescott) affected the image negatively, and there have been instances when McCarthy – who was a lame-duck coach on the final 12 months of his contract – carried out his duties as one would possibly anticipate.

— With Pete Carroll returning to the teaching ranks because the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach, we will likely be handled to one in all professional soccer’s all-time nice teaching rivalries not less than twice each season but once more. Across the time Carroll and the Seahawks have been engineering their divorce on the finish of the 2023 season, the Los Angeles Chargers employed Jim Harbaugh to be their head coach after Harbaugh’s fantastically profitable tenure at Michigan.

Carroll and Harbaugh have fairly the previous. They went in opposition to one another within the outdated Pac-10 when Carroll was at USC and Harbaugh was at Stanford, after which, from 2011-2014, it was Carroll in Seattle, and Harbaugh with the San Francisco 49ers. From the 2012-2014 seasons, both Harbaugh’s or Carroll’s groups represented the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl, and the regular-season and postseason battles between the 2 groups have been all the time appointment viewing – throughout and after the video games.

— At 73, Carroll can also be the oldest particular person ever to be employed to be a head coach by any NFL group. How lengthy has Carroll been round? His first NFL head teaching job got here with the 1994 New York Jets, and Carroll’s first draft choose was a cornerback from Texas A&M by the identify of Aaron Glenn. Glenn made three Professional Bowls in 15 seasons with 5 totally different groups, turned a defensive coach after that, spent his final 4 seasons because the Detroit Lions’ highly-esteemed defensive coordinator, and is now the Jets’ new head coach.

Glenn has rather a lot to cope with. There’s the query of whether or not Aaron Rodgers will likely be again after a 2024 season that lived as much as no one’s expectations. Each a part of the roster might do with some upgrades, and the Jets stand with just a little over $20m in wage cap area for the 2025 season if Rodgers is on the group. They’ll acquire some area with some adept juggling, however given the latest personnel philosophies prolonged by group possession … nicely, there aren’t any ensures.