The Padres Have a Complicated Future

Padres followers in 2023 don’t have a ton to be enthusiastic about. The Friars have been in win-now mode for the final 4 seasons and are staring down their second dropping marketing campaign throughout that span. One of many two profitable seasons was type of ruined — for everybody on the earth — by a raging pandemic, leaving followers with just one 12 months that was each regular and an pleasurable expertise since 2010. Not like numerous groups with an analogous efficiency file, it’s not for lack of funding within the crew. Just some months after the big commerce that introduced Juan Soto to city, the crew signed Xander Bogaerts to a $280 million contract and saved Manny Machado from opting out with a good spicier $350 million pact. The Padres additionally agreed on a $100 million contract for Joe Musgrove and locked up Yu Darvish for $108 million. That’s greater than $800 million, so we’re not speaking in regards to the case of, say, the White Sox having points partly as a result of they couldn’t be bothered to fill large holes within the lineup as a result of that will have required cash.

As gloomy because the season feels proper now, there are nonetheless reliable causes to suppose the Padres are a very good baseball crew. Their 68–54 Pythagorean file is 10 wins above their precise file, and data derived from run differential are extra predictive than win-loss file. The projections all nonetheless agree there’s quite a bit to love and equally have a very good file, comparatively talking, of predicting the longer term. And this holds true even when speaking about groups with the most important disagreement between the projections and the file. Trying on the 25 groups that FanGraphs like higher than their seasonal profitable proportion probably the most, coin flips missed their rest-of-season profitable percentages by a mean of 86 factors, season to-date data by 81 factors, and FanGraphs data by 65 factors. These 25 groups had performed .396 ball by way of August 14 of their seasons; FanGraphs projected a .476 RoS profitable proportion, and the precise RoS profitable proportion for these groups was .458. We weren’t imagining issues.

However the elementary downside the Padres face is that it’s merely far too late to be the crew they hoped they have been. Our projections nonetheless consider they’re a .572 crew, however that’s solely ok for a 19% likelihood of creating the postseason with a divisional chance that rounds to zero; the ZiPS projections have it at 15%. Whereas these are nonetheless fairly good odds, particularly in comparison with how the season has felt, it’s nonetheless much more doubtless than not that this 12 months finally ends up being a darkish companion to the 2021 season that additionally resulted in stunningly bleak style.

And right here’s the issue: the Padres mission to be worse sooner or later than they’re now. You possibly can say that about most groups, however the Padres are additionally a crew that has an enormous quantity of payroll already tied up in a declining roster, an unsigned Soto approaching free company, and doubtless not numerous room left to develop in a payroll sense. Complicating issues even additional is the monetary collapse of Bally Sports activities, because the crew has not but discovered learn how to change that income. Forbes estimated the Padres misplaced $53 million in 2022, and issues are more likely to worsen from there. Peter (Seidler) truly noticed a wolf.

Working some up-to-date projections for gamers signed long-term demonstrates the enormity of the crew’s problem. I’m going to start out with the Padres’ core of six gamers who’ve assured contracts with annual salaries of at $10 million or extra by way of no less than the 2026 season. No matter occurs elsewhere on the crew, these six are nearly actually going to be a part of the muse.

Chances are you’ll cringe trying on the finish of Machado’s contract, however ZiPS already anticipated that earlier than the season. Machado put collectively a robust sufficient July — although he’s slumped since then and is nursing a sore hamstring — and skilled a transparent return to defensive type to trigger his 2024-and-on projections to tick up barely. Whereas ZiPS didn’t just like the deal, it doesn’t prefer it any lower than it did in February.

Bogaerts was mired in a deep stoop in Could and June, aided by a sore wrist, however has hit a extra Xanderian .290/.351/.413 because the begin of July, in-line with preseason expectations. As with Machado’s latest deal, the Padres go into this contract figuring out that they’re paying for Bogaerts to say no.

This can be a little bit of an ungainly projection as a result of it highlights an assumption in crew building that turned out to not be true. Usually, a good defensive second baseman who can credibly faux taking part in shortstop will normally fare effectively at first base, however that simply has not occurred, no less than to date, with Jake Cronenworth. With Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 firmly entrenched as a starter, the Padres have a participant with worth however not a logical place to play him with a view to get that worth. The distinction is excessive sufficient that ZiPS thinks that Cronenworth is now greater than a win per season much less invaluable at first than second base.

Add in the truth that Cronenworth is having a down 12 months (and a fairly odd one when it comes to Statcast information), and there’s only a lot much less cause to love his future than there was earlier than.

The place the positional gods punished the Padres with Cronenworth, they have been far kinder right here. Tatis’ bat isn’t fairly the place it was, however he’s truly turned out to be a superb defensive outfielder, no less than to date. Given his age, he’s the one participant who initiatives to complete out his contract as a plus contributor to the crew.

ZiPS was all the time pretty pessimistic in regards to the Darvish extension, and with out him reversing the continued sluggish decline in his peripherals, it hasn’t modified route because the begin of the season. Whereas I all the time say “hitters age, pitchers break,” Darvish is at an age the place cliffs do, in reality, beckon. ZiPS didn’t even wish to mission the ultimate two seasons of his extension; I’ll be variety and never power it to, so we’ll name these zero-WAR seasons, which is sunnier than what ZiPS would say if I made it.

The efficiency projections of Musgrove have stayed about the identical — hardly shocking contemplating that when he was wholesome, he was having an analogous season to final 12 months. However his return this season stays up within the air, and new accidents create new danger for a pitcher, so his projected innings totals have dropped significantly.

OK, let’s throw everyone into one desk, full with their salaries.

If the projections maintain true, these six will make up lower than a 3rd of the WAR wanted to be a 90-win crew as quickly as 2026, after they mix for $120 million in wage. Except the crew continues to spend increasingly cash, it’s going to get tougher and tougher to make use of {dollars} to patch holes, which implies that the farm system has to get again to producing in a short time. The Padres aren’t doubtless to have the ability to win on the backs of those six gamers for very lengthy, which implies that they doubtless must give you an entire new core of expertise round these gamers.

The danger right here is certainly one of dynastic failure. I’m not calling the Padres a dynasty when it comes to baseball success, however extra how the time period has been used traditionally. Plenty of warlords in historical past managed to get a throne, however to ascertain long-term rule, they needed to survive the transition to the subsequent rulers. The Astros are an instance of a crew that has prevented dynastic failure; solely a handful of the gamers on the crew that received the World Collection in 2017 have been nonetheless on the roster when Houston received the World Collection in 2022. Solely Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman stay among the many Astros’ offensive contributors at the moment, and the one pitcher nonetheless in Houston, Lance McCullers Jr., received’t pitch once more till 2024 [and Verlander who I forgot about for some very odd reason -DS]. They principally got here up with almost a completely new crew in 5 years.

Baseball historical past is riddled with profitable groups that have been unable to transition to the subsequent period with no important interregnum, such because the Utley-Howard Phillies and the Tigers in the course of the peak Miguel Cabrera years. However these Phillies received a World Collection, and whereas the Tigers didn’t, they’d extra playoff success than these Padres groups have had. To attain that success, the Padres are going to must be extraordinarily inventive over the subsequent 5 years, lest they find yourself as one of many nice “what ifs” in baseball historical past. Spending cash and having a couple of massive stars received’t be sufficient.