The Orioles Are Running Out of Lineup Spots

It’s a good time to be a fan of the Baltimore Orioles. That is now the third season since their emergence from the darkish basement of the AL East, they usually now not retain their tatterdemalion look. The O’s, at 20-11, have been successful by the very simple technique of beating their opponents into submission, not by accumulating greater than their fair proportion of extra-inning and one-run victories. Whereas the pitching workers has been a giant a part of the staff’s success, what has made the Orioles so harmful is a lineup that leads the American League in runs scored and wRC+. Even higher for an O’s fan, they’re terrorizing opposing pitchers with a lineup that’s largely product of gamers that got here up with the franchise and are a number of years away from hitting free company. And there’s extra on the way in which, giving the staff a moderately novel first world downside: having too many hitters and never sufficient lineup spots.

That the O’s have among the greatest younger offensive expertise within the majors shouldn’t be misplaced on anybody who’s into baseball. Adley Rutschman was the runner-up for AL Rookie of the 12 months in 2022, Gunnar Henderson took the award final 12 months, and Jackson Holliday was the heavy favourite earlier than his poor debut. Holliday may very simply come again and win it in the long run, but when he doesn’t, one of many present favorites is yet one more younger Baltimore left-handed hitter, Colton Cowser. By Thursday’s video games, Cowser stands with the highest WAR amongst AL rookies, with a .277/.351/.578, 164 wRC+ line. I haven’t even talked about Jordan Westburg, who has an .890 OPS whereas splitting time between second and third base.

Even with Holliday falling flat in his first 10 video games within the majors – one thing I count on him to rectify within the not-too-distant future – the O’s are main the league in WAR from gamers youthful than the standard peak age of 27.

In franchise historical past, together with its first 12 months because the Milwaukee Brewers in 1901 and thru many years because the St. Louis Browns, the 2023 staff ranked seventh in WAR (12.2) from place gamers youthful than 27, and this 12 months’s staff is already inside shouting distance of midway to that mark. So naturally, my query is how this staff is more likely to find yourself by the top of the season, and whether or not it could stack as much as the very best younger offensive groups ever. For this, I’ll use our Depth Charts taking part in time to provide believable estimates of how the O’s will use their lineup for the remainder of the season.

Even with Depth Charts projecting a way more conservative promotion schedule for Holliday than anticipated at the beginning of the season, the O’s have a imply projection of 21.7 WAR from this group of gamers. That may be the very best in staff historical past, edging out the 1973 membership with Bobby Grich, Don Baylor, Earl Williams, and Al Bumbry because the headliners. And sure, it’s important on a historic stage as nicely.

Their 21.7 WAR can be sufficient to place the Orioles within the prime 25, and there’s an argument that this undersells the group. The overwhelming majority of the groups with probably the most 26-and-under contributions come from the pre-World Warfare II period, when gamers have been referred to as up at youthful ages and there was no ticking service time clock. Taking a look at simply the divisional period – which now covers greater than half a century – the Orioles rank impressively amongst latest stables of younger expertise.

There are some mighty spectacular groups on that checklist, most notably the Huge Crimson Machine and the early Nineteen Seventies Athletics earlier than free company.

And even this maybe underrates Baltimore’s offensive expertise. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Holliday destroy within the minors and get a fast name again up, and if he does, he would slide proper into the on a regular basis lineup. In any other case, although, the Orioles at the moment are as much as the sensible limitation of roster and beginning lineup spots. Cowser is an instance of this: It could have been arduous to get him common taking part in time if not for Austin Hays’ dreadful begin to the season. (Hayes is now on the IL). Heston Kjerstad was referred to as as much as exchange Hays on April 23, after hitting .349/.431/.744 at Triple-A Norfolk, but the previous first rounder has gotten solely eight plate appearances whole in three video games — the O’s have performed 10 video games with him on the roster.

Kjerstad is way from the one Orioles farmhand who probably would have gotten extra taking part in time on a staff with a thinner roster. At Triple-A, Coby Mayo is hitting .333/.397/.683 with 11 homers whereas principally taking part in third base, a place at which the Orioles are already overflowing. Connor Norby has cut up time at second base and the outfield with an .829 OPS at Norfolk, however there’s no apparent place for him to get taking part in time until the staff decides to chop Ramón Urías. Utilizing up-to-date minor league translations for Kjerstad, Mayo, and Norby, we are able to get an thought, by way of some up-to-date ZiPS projections, at what this trio may do in the event that they O’s had taking part in time to provide them.

All three gamers mission as league common or higher in the event that they began within the majors proper now.

Whereas this represents a fairly enviable downside for the Orioles to have, it additionally will be a chance. The group is deep in hitters, however its farm system doesn’t have anyplace close to the identical depth in relation to pitching. We don’t but have a 2024 farm system rating up for the Orioles, however within the up to date 2023 checklist, the highest 15 prospects featured simply two pitchers, Cade Povich and Seth Johnson. Corbin Burnes was an important acquisition, nevertheless it doesn’t have to finish there; as groups fall out of competition, the chance exists for Baltimore so as to add a pitcher who can’t solely pitch down the stretch or in a doable playoff collection or three, however in 2025 and past. The excess of offensive expertise ought to give the Orioles the power to supply extra for the best pitcher than virtually another staff in baseball can, and in the event that they do swing a commerce, they’d nonetheless have so many different hitters within the pipeline that such a transfer probably wouldn’t make a dent within the staff’s long-term outlook in a significant approach.

Whether or not Baltimore will get to the World Collection after a drought of greater than 40 years continues to be unsure. However that is the Orioles staff that appears probably the most like those of the early Earl Weaver years: It’s a membership that’s constructed principally from inside and overflowing with younger stars. That labored out fairly nicely the primary time round.