Jose Trevino’s second season within the Bronx has taken a flip from dangerous to worse. After incomes an All-Star choice in his first yr with the Yankees, Trevino struggled to supply even serviceable offense in 2023. Then, on Friday, the 30-year-old catcher revealed he would bear surgical procedure on a torn wrist ligament he’s been coping with since spring coaching. The damage would possibly clarify his sharp offensive downturn, however it additionally means he’ll miss the rest of the season. It’s one more powerful blow for a Yankees squad that has handled greater than its fair proportion of accidents.
On Opening Day, 26 of 27 FanGraphs staffers picked the Yankees to achieve the playoffs. It wasn’t a foul prediction, by any means; they’d the best preseason playoff odds within the American League and extra projected WAR than any workforce in baseball. But the roster we’ve seen this season is a tragic facsimile of the one we imagined earlier than the yr started. In line with the Injured Record Ledger at Baseball Prospectus, the Yankees rank first by a mile in cumulative worth misplaced to damage. Of the seven gamers on the roster who have been All-Stars in 2022, 5 have spent vital time on the shelf: Aaron Decide, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, and now Trevino. Different gamers who’ve missed time embody Frankie Montas, Harrison Bader, Josh Donaldson, and Luis Severino.
Decide’s absence looms largest, however a protracted checklist of accidents to the beginning rotation has harm the workforce most of all. The Yankees had the primary rotation on our positional energy rankings this offseason, however their starters at present rank twenty second in WAR. Rodón missed the primary 14 weeks of the season with forearm issues and Cortes will miss not less than two months with a strained rotator cuff. In the meantime, Severino missed the primary eight weeks with a lat pressure and Montas has been out all yr after shoulder surgical procedure. Trevino is not any pitcher (watch out you don’t confuse him along with his teammate Lou Trivino), however he is likely one of the finest defensive catchers within the recreation, and pitchers are higher when he’s behind the dish. Over the past two years, Yankees pitchers have a 3.28 ERA after they’re working with Trevino, in comparison with a 3.79 ERA with another catcher. To make use of a extra significant statistic than catcher ERA, Trevino led the league in framing runs final season and ranks fourth this yr. On a fee foundation, he’s only a smidge behind league leaders Austin Hedges and William Contreras. Thus, his damage is one more punch within the intestine wrist for the pitching employees.
Trevino’s outstanding protection, and specifically his elite pitch framing, is his calling card. Nevertheless, he broke out final season by complementing his top-notch defensive expertise with common offense for a catcher. This yr, sadly, his offensive numbers plummeted throughout the board. He slashed .210/.257/.312 in 55 video games, and his 58 wRC+ ranks within the backside 5% of the league (min. 150 PA). Yankees supervisor Aaron Boone made it clear he thought the damage had affected Trevino’s swing, however the catcher himself refused guilty his poor efficiency on his wrist.
On the one hand, Trevino’s 168 PA this season hardly present sufficient information to conclude that he’s truly any worse. In any case, he slashed .229/.253/.340 with a 67 wRC+ over his ultimate 48 video games of 2022, and so far as we all know, he was completely wholesome at that time. Merely put, each hitter goes by way of peaks and valleys in a season. When you will have a man who’s solely a mediocre hitter at the very best of instances, he’s sure to have some really dreadful stretches. To that finish, Trevino’s BABIP this yr was .221, which is low even for a soft-hitting, slow-moving catcher. In the meantime, his .282 xwOBA was nearly similar to his .281 xwOBA from 2022.
Then once more, when you dig somewhat deeper, you’ll see that Trevino reached these two related xwOBAs in very other ways. His high quality of contact metrics have been down throughout the board this yr: common exit velocity, barrel fee, candy spot fee, you identify it. Nevertheless, he reduce his strikeout fee from 17.6% to 13.1%, and he didn’t sacrifice any walks within the course of. Thus, he noticed a 50% improve in his year-over-year walk-to-strikeout ratio. He was making worse contact, however he was additionally making a lot extra of it that the 2 canceled one another out, not less than so far as xwOBA is anxious. This implies that maybe his wrist was an issue in any case, however Trevino discovered a solution to compensate with plate self-discipline.
It’s additionally potential that opposing pitchers simply adjusted their method in opposition to Trevino, which frequently occurs after a completely surprising participant has an enormous season on the plate. And wouldn’t it, Trevino noticed sinkers 23% of the time this yr, up from 14% final season. He additionally noticed the next proportion of all different pitches within the backside third of the strike zone and down low beneath the zone. This implies pitchers have been making an attempt to induce extra groundballs from Trevino, a plan of motion that makes excellent sense. He’s good at making contact, and he can often do some injury when he hits one within the air. One of the best ways to assault Trevino is to throw him pitches he can’t elevate. If this was certainly the plan, it labored fairly nicely. His groundball fee rose from 39.9% final yr to 51.1% this yr, which fits a protracted solution to clarify why his high quality of contact numbers deteriorated. To additional help this idea, Trevino’s xwOBAcon on fly balls and line drives truly improved this season. In different phrases, when he did elevate the baseball, he was nonetheless able to doing injury.
As is usually the case, the most probably clarification for Trevino’s droop is a mixture of all the above. He was unfortunate, he was hurting, and opposing pitchers figured him out. In the end, the Yankees will simply have to attend and see how he performs upon his return.
Within the meantime, long-time backup Kyle Higashioka remains to be round, and he ought to be capable of take over full-time catching duties. He’s having an identical season to Trevino, with a 68 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR in 62 video games. Nevertheless, the standard of his protection, and due to this fact the quantity of worth he gives, differs relying on the place you look. Our calculations counsel he’s a constantly wonderful pitch framer, and the numbers at Baseball Prospectus are much more optimistic about his framing. Nevertheless, the numbers at Baseball Savant point out his framing expertise have been deteriorating for a number of years, and he’s now nearer to common than wonderful. Baseball Savant additionally suggests he’s been a dreadful blocker this yr with a mediocre arm. Regardless, it’s clear the Yankees worth his defensive expertise. They drafted him out of highschool in 2008, and he’s been with the group ever since. On a couple of event, he’s earned reward for his game-calling and work ethic from his coaches and teammates.
One downside, nevertheless, is that Higashioka has all the time been a backup, and he’s by no means caught a full season. To get by way of 62 extra video games (and hopefully a postseason run), the Yankees will want one other catcher to share the load. Presently, the one different backstop on the 40-man roster is Ben Rortvedt, who doesn’t have a lot upside and has even much less large league expertise. One must think about the Yankees will not less than be purchasing round for a veteran catcher earlier than the deadline.
Catchers who may very well be obtainable embody Yasmani Grandal, Yan Gomes, and Elias Díaz. None is a difference-making participant on both facet of the ball, however all are succesful veterans. Díaz may be the least interesting as a result of he’s beneath contract by way of 2024, and the Yankees are hoping to have Trevino again subsequent spring. Grandal is a free agent after the season, whereas Gomes has a membership choice for 2024. Grandal, being a switch-hitter, may be the very best match. He hits right-handed pitching higher than Gomes, Díaz, or Higashioka, and the Yankees, who’ve a 93 wRC+ in opposition to right-handed pitching this season, might use all the assistance they’ll get in that division.
Hedges and Tucker Barnhart may very well be obtainable too, however you need to presume the Yankees would goal somebody who might present not less than somewhat offensive spark. There’s additionally Mike Zunino, previously of the Guardians. As a free agent, he wouldn’t value the Yankees any prospects, however once more, he received’t present any offensive upside.
With the stretch run on the horizon, the Yankees discover themselves in an uncommon place: the underside of the AL East. That claims simply as a lot in regards to the steep competitors within the division because it does the Yankees themselves, however it’s alarming nonetheless. This workforce hasn’t completed a season in final place since 1990, a yr that just one participant on the payroll, Donaldson, is sufficiently old to recollect. The Yankees are solely two video games again of a Wild Card berth, however their playoff odds have fallen to 35.5%. They rank tenth within the league in run differential, and so they have a shedding file because the begin of June. This wasn’t the way it was imagined to go.
Nonetheless, the Yankees’ playoff odds are low however hardly insurmountable. That they had nearly similar odds on this date in 2021, and so they went on to edge out the Blue Jays for the ultimate Wild Card spot. The season is over for Trevino, however it isn’t over for the Yankees simply but.
