The Marlins had been the topic of jokes aplenty this winter after they added two established second basemen, Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, to a roster that already featured a number of succesful keystone defenders. But all jokes apart, Kim Ng’s unconventional methodology of roster development has labored out fairly effectively up to now. Arraez leads all main second basemen with a 151 wRC+, and his protection is tolerable so long as he retains hitting. In the meantime, Jazz Chisholm Jr., although at the moment on the IL, has adjusted effectively to middle area, and Jon Berti and Joey Wendle have been a wonderful defensive tandem at shortstop.
Nonetheless, the second baseman the Marlins signed to play third is struggling terribly. Segura is slashing .200/.268/.236 (the uncommon .200/.200/.200 batting line, also referred to as a Paul Janish), and he’s one in every of solely 5 certified hitters with out a house run (an achievement generally known as a Reggie Willits). His 43 wRC+ ranks final in baseball, as does his .231 wOBA and .504 OPS. The one certified hitter with a decrease WAR is José Abreu, who has had an extra 5 video games during which to be dreadful. Segura’s solely saving grace is that he has hit effectively in 15 high-leverage plate appearances (.385 AVG, 134 wRC+), besides, his -1.31 WPA is the worst within the Nationwide League.
The final certified batter to complete with a wRC+ under 45 was Clint Barmes, who posted a 38 wRC+ in 2006. Since then, solely 5 different gamers have even completed under 50; usually, hitters both enhance because the yr goes on, or they don’t get sufficient enjoying time to qualify. As for the handful who lasted a full season with such a feeble bat, the one one to have been an above-average hitter all through the remainder of his profession was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. His 46 wRC+ in 2017 was an enormous step down from his profession 117 wRC+ to that time.
So which can or not it’s for Segura: Will he enhance, will he be compelled right into a bench function, or is he doomed to develop into the subsequent Davis? Fortunately for the broadly beloved infielder, the primary of these outcomes appears the most definitely. His .298 xwOBA is his worst since 2015, however it’s almost 70 factors increased than his precise wOBA and solely 5 factors decrease than his xwOBA in 2022. Furthermore, that is the primary season in his profession that Segura isn’t outperforming his xwOBA. Over the previous six years, he has constantly outperformed his xwOBA by about 15 factors every season. If his wOBA was at the moment 15 factors increased than his xwOBA, it could match the NL common at third base.
Certainly, Segura appears to be a sufferer of circumstance in 2023. He usually runs a BABIP 5-10% higher than league common, however this yr his .243 BABIP is without doubt one of the lowest within the recreation. It’s exhausting to consider that quantity gained’t regress to the imply; Segura hasn’t gotten a lot slower, and he nonetheless sprays groundballs in all instructions. Moreover, whereas he has but to hit a house run, he has hit 23 fly balls. With a league-average HR/FB price (or his personal common from the previous three years — the quantity is similar), he would have hit three lengthy balls by now. Per Statcast, he would have at the very least one house run in 26 of 30 stadiums, two house runs in 17 of 30, and three house runs if he performed all his video games at Wrigley or American Household Area. All in all, 4 of his balls within the air would have gone out at the very least a few ballparks. Simply take a look at how shut a few of his fly balls acquired to the seats:
If Segura had a league-average BABIP (presuming all additional hits had been singles) and a league-average HR/FB price, his slash line would rise from Janish territory to a serviceable .257/.319/.343. That’s nothing to be pleased with, however it’s not too far off from his preseason ZiPS projection of .271/.329/.387. Extra to the purpose, these numbers actually wouldn’t warrant an article about what went mistaken. Thus, I’m not overly involved about Segura simply but. He appears to be on the decline, however his abilities haven’t fallen off a cliff the best way his 43 wRC+ would recommend. Nonetheless, whereas I’ve you right here, let’s take a better take a look at what’s gone mistaken for the person as soon as generally known as Jean, Jean, the Hit Machine.
The largest factor lacking from Segura’s recreation proper now could be energy. Even with these additional house runs and a league-average BABIP, his .343 slugging proportion and .086 ISO would characterize a large drop-off from his previous manufacturing and would rank among the many worst within the recreation. But unusually sufficient, his common exit velocity and hard-hit price have barely modified. His common launch angle is down, however his sweet-spot proportion (batted balls with a launch angle between 8-32 levels) has fallen lower than one % from final yr and solely 2.4% from his profession common.
Much more uncommon, Segura is definitely making much less contact labeled as “poor” by Baseball Savant. In 2022, 67.3% of his batted balls had been categorized as both “weak,” “topped,” or “below.” This yr, that quantity is right down to 63.2%. The issue, nevertheless, is that he isn’t barreling the ball both; his barrel price is right down to 2.4%. Which means extra of his contact has fallen into the “flare/burner” and “strong” buckets. These are each superb types of contact, however flares and burners not often result in additional base hits, and the facility potential of strong contact pales compared to the facility potential of the barrel.
The truth that Segura’s hard-hit price and sweet-spot proportion haven’t modified very a lot signifies that he’s nonetheless able to hitting the ball exhausting and on the optimum angle, however his low barrel price tells us he simply hasn’t been doing each on the similar time. It’s exhausting to know what to make of this data. On the one hand, it means the abilities are nonetheless there; on the opposite, it suggests he isn’t timing up pitches in addition to he used to.
As I evaluate numbers from the previous two years, it’s value conserving in thoughts that Segura’s decline didn’t come out of nowhere this season. As an alternative, his energy started to vanish partway by means of the 2022 marketing campaign. On the time, many individuals attributed the issue to the damaged finger he suffered on the finish of Might. On a bunt try gone mistaken, Segura broke his proper index finger and spent the subsequent two months recovering. The distinction between his energy numbers pre- and post-injury was stark; his ISO dropped from .132 to .091, whereas his common exit velocity fell by greater than 4 mph.
Nonetheless, for those who look a bit nearer on the highs and lows of Segura’s 2022 season, you’ll see his energy truly began to fall off a couple of weeks earlier than the damage. From Opening Day by means of Might 14, Segura had a .200 ISO and a 92.8-mph common EV. Greater than half his balls in play had been labeled as hard-hit. Then, beginning Might 15, he went into an enormous stoop. Over his subsequent 16 video games, he had just one extra-base hit. His ISO was .016 and his common exit velocity fell to 84.9 mph. His hard-hit price dropped in half, and he was driving way more balls straight into the dust.
As Robert Orr wrote for Baseball Prospectus final Might, Segura discovered success early within the season by swinging at extra fastballs and fewer offspeed pitches. This strategy labored at first, however the draw back was clear: He was extra susceptible in opposition to breaking balls. As Orr defined, “By leaping the tougher stuff, Segura should decide to swinging earlier and swing tougher than he has previously to catch as much as the upper velocity.” In different phrases, by looking fastballs, he was extra prone to get fooled by pitches with much less velocity and extra motion.
Because it occurred, Segura’s swing price in opposition to breaking balls rose all through the month, sitting slightly below 60% from Might 15-31. This was an issue for a few causes. For one, breaking balls induce extra whiffs, and Segura must put the ball in play to succeed. To make issues worse, even when he wasn’t whiffing, his high quality of contact was poor – maybe that’s what occurs if you’re hoping for a fastball and also you simply barely handle to make contact with a breaking pitch as a substitute. He was hitting breaking balls with much less authority, and he was sending most of them into the bottom. When he did handle to hit one a bit increased, the outcomes had been simply as dangerous – he didn’t pull a single breaking ball within the air over the ultimate two weeks of the month.
Sadly, Segura’s struggles in opposition to breaking balls have continued in 2023. He swings at extra breaking balls than every other pitch, and to date he has a .160 wOBA, a .217 xwOBA, and a 28% whiff price for his bother. When breaking pitches are within the zone, he nearly at all times makes contact however doesn’t do a lot injury. Once they’re exterior the zone, he’s been swinging and lacking greater than ever. Breaking pitches have damaged the hit machine, and critical repairs are so as.
Jean Segura has made a profession out of creating strong contact, and making strong contact with every little thing. As his low strikeout price will attest, he’s nonetheless acquired among the greatest bat-to-ball abilities in recreation. The “strong” half, nevertheless, wants some work. If he’s going to enhance his numbers (past the anticipated regression), he wants to regulate his strategy in opposition to sliders and curves.
