Can a driver with a 52-point lead with six rounds of a Formulation 1 season remaining actually not be thought of the favorite to win the world championship?
To many F1 observers, the Dutchman’s present factors pile and cracking capabilities mix to make him unstoppable in 2024. That is no matter how good McLaren and Lando Norris have been in profitable commandingly in Singapore final trip, or the truth that Max Verstappen and Crimson Bull have not received since Spain in June.
However Verstappen’s place stays precarious.
For a begin, the momentum is firmly with McLaren now. Whenever you add Norris’s equally crushing Zandvoort win to what he achieved in Singapore (and certainly ought to’ve performed at Monza), that is two from the final 4 races in 2024’s mini-post-summer break part of the marketing campaign the place the title chaser has delivered wins worthy of Verstappen’s sensible begin to this season.
Verstappen hopes – saying in Singapore that “we’re transferring in the best route now”– that Crimson Bull is over the worst of the automotive issues which have held it again actually since Miami in early Might. However even when the work the staff has been placing in of late does draw it again degree with McLaren round an eagerly anticipated Austin improve package deal, Verstappen remains to be susceptible to only a single DNF blowing this title struggle broad open given what number of races there are nonetheless to come back at this stage.
Verstappen’s report in these – Austin, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi – is, general, formidable.
At each the Circuit of the Americas and the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, Verstappen is undefeated since they rejoined the F1 calendar after the COVID-19 pandemic. His wins at these tracks in 2021 have been essential in finally profitable his first world title that yr.
Podium: Race winner Max Verstappen, Crimson Bull Racing
Picture by: Crimson Bull Content material Pool
His previous is chequered in Brazil. He has two Interlagos wins, however that is additionally a observe the place he misplaced a sure victory in that weird conflict with Esteban Ocon in 2018, then in 2021 Hamilton roared again (boosted by a recent engine however nonetheless with extra to lose in a collision from his grid penalty restoration) and famously received.
The following yr, any hope Verstappen had of profitable despite Crimson Bull’s tyre bother was undone in one other crash with Hamilton, earlier than his refusal to assist Sergio Perez over minor locations performed out late on.
He has a 50:50 report in Qatar – dropping to Hamilton in 2021 earlier than profitable on the observe’s second GP final yr. Verstappen did, nonetheless, lose the 2023 Qatar dash race to Oscar Piastri and of all of the remaining races that is the one the place McLaren should be thought of the overwhelming victory favorite given its high-speed nature.
Las Vegas is one other outlier the place Ferrari will certainly be robust with its ‘Monza particular’ rear wing and McLaren not operating its ‘mini-DRS’ that made headlines in Baku.
Verstappen received the primary race with Vegas again on the calendar in 41 years, however actually, Charles Leclerc ought to’ve taken victory however for his misfortune (and Verstappen’s acquire) across the mid-race security automotive.
On the Abu Dhabi season finale, Verstappen’s kind is sensational – he has received yearly since 2019 and hasn’t completed off the rostrum on the Yas Marina observe since he was fifth there in 2017.
There may be, nonetheless, a moderately obtrusive asterisk from that 2021 Abu Dhabi race, as Verstappen was seemingly effectively overwhelmed by Hamilton earlier than the officiating saga that adopted Nicholas Latifi’s late crash.
But, three years later, Verstappen can certainly draw inspiration from his 2021 title rival forward of this ultimate bout of contests in opposition to Hamilton’s former staff, McLaren. That is how on a number of events by means of his title steamrollering years with Mercedes, Hamilton usually turned the screw on threatening opposition with a sequence of pivotal, successive victories.
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W05 Hybrid, 1st Place, arrives in Parc Ferme after securing the win and the 2014 World Champion
Picture by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Photographs
In 2014, his 5 wins in a row after that controversial conflict with Nico Rosberg at Spa overturned his team-mate’s as soon as hefty factors lead. In 2016, having allowed Rosberg to construct momentum with three walk-off wins on the finish of 2015, his season-closing 4 successive wins could not overturn the harm of factors misplaced to a number of dangerous begins and that Malaysian GP engine failure that yr, nevertheless it meant Rosberg could not make certain of the title till the ultimate Abu Dhabi tour.
In 2017, Hamilton got here out of the summer time break with 5 wins from six races – Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel now his closest challenger (and forward within the factors earlier than this streak began). This was the place Hamilton’s trait of hammering essential factors of the season actually took on a brand new dimension, given for the primary time in its title run Mercedes was having to cope with what Toto Wolff known as a “diva” automotive.
Maybe most importantly right here, as a result of as for Verstappen in 2024, 2018 was actually not a season the place Hamilton recurrently had the clear greatest automotive package deal.
However he produced one other four-race post-Spa/summer time break victory streak that snapped any faint hopes Vettel had of wresting again management of the championship. Once more, the German had led Hamilton within the standings – till that notorious home-off at Hockenheim.
Hamilton normally rose when the strain was highest throughout his title run. And, as Austin and Mexico 2021 confirmed, Verstappen can do that too – though that’s the solely season he has actually needed to work for a title and it got here with loads of controversial moments that may very well be argued as unresolved weaknesses too. However, such rising at essential moments is a trait that separates the good from the nice in F1 driver historical past.
After all, that present 52-point hole to Norris cannot be forgotten. Extra usually, a driver that has constructed a essential early factors lead will recover from the road – with well-known examples similar to Ayrton Senna for McLaren in 1991, Renault’s Fernando Alonso in 2005 and Jenson Button with Brawn GP in 2009.
So, if Verstappen can pull out a profitable streak at this essential second now in 2024 – beginning on what should be thought of beneficial floor at Austin and in Mexico given his latest information at these tracks – he could make sure of matching Hamilton and Vettel (and Michael Schumacher and Juan Manuel Fangio) in securing 4 F1 titles in succession.
