The Giants Are Coming in for a Verlanding

What does it price to signal a dwelling legend? About $15 million, it seems. Three-time Cy Younger winner Justin Verlander is taking his skills to the West Coast for the primary time, having inked a one-year cope with the San Francisco Giants for that aforementioned sum.

It’s one other daring signing for newly appointed supreme prefect of baseball operations Gerald D. “Buster” Posey, who formally took cost just a little over three months in the past. And but — if we give Posey the credit score he’s reportedly due for the Matt Chapman extension — greater than 1 / 4 of San Francisco’s payroll (in line with CBT math) is now dedicated to gamers Posey is answerable for signing.

However Verlander might very properly have price extra. He made almost thrice as a lot final season, and had he hit the 140-inning threshold in 2024, he would’ve been capable of activate a participant choice value $35 million, not $15 million. So why take such an enormous haircut? That is Justin Verlander, for God’s sake.

The phrase “it takes one to know one” absolutely doesn’t apply to future Corridor of Famers. You don’t want Posey’s immaculate enjoying credentials to understand what Verlander’s performed over his profession.

One of many extra fascinating conversations that’s been occurring round baseball just lately considerations how Corridor of Fame voters ought to deal with beginning pitchers on this period of five-and-dive and a number of Tommy John surgical procedures. Principally no one is placing up conventional Corridor of Fame numbers anymore, and the first-time candidacy of Félix Hernández makes for an apparent entry level to the problem. One thing goes to have to provide, or else we’re going to go a long time between Corridor of Fame beginning pitchers, the argument goes.

After which it stops for the required caveat: Aside from Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Verlander.

As a result of Verlander’s accomplishments — 262 wins, 3,415 strikeouts, 82.0 WAR, a Rookie of the 12 months Award, an MVP, three Cy Younger Awards, and 4 different top-three finishes — play in any period beneath any commonplace. He’s not solely a Corridor of Famer, he’s a first-ballot Corridor of Famer. And never solely is he a first-ballot Corridor of Famer, his candidacy is such that any voter who leaves him off their poll goes to be (appropriately) dismissed as a crank.

Absolutely Posey is aware of this. His Giants defeated Verlander’s Tigers within the 2012 World Sequence. In reality, Verlander was already a star when Posey was merely a prospect — even a pitching prospect, of kinds. In 2008, Posey posted a 1.17 ERA with six saves as a two-way participant at Florida State. That yr, the Giants drafted him fifth general. Verlander completed that season with a fair 600 main league innings pitched for his profession.

Verlander is simply 4 years older than Posey. The Giants’ baseball ops ringmaster admittedly retired younger, however not that younger. Verlander turns 42 subsequent month, and like most civic establishments that got here into being throughout the Reagan Administration, he’s falling aside.

Verlander aged extraordinarily properly, all issues thought of; he gained two of his Cy Younger Awards after he turned 36, with considered one of them coming after he missed (primarily) two full seasons with a torn UCL. At age 40, he commanded $43.3 million a yr in a free agent contract from the Mets, and pitched properly that season, which included a second midseason commerce to Houston.

However final yr was actually dangerous. Jay Jaffe broke down the gory particulars in September, because the unthinkable was turning into more and more possible: The Astros must go away Verlander off their postseason roster. And that’s not simply an artifact of Houston’s nice pitching depth; Verlander’s fastball misplaced velocity, his changeup misplaced some run, his curveball wasn’t curving, his slider wasn’t sliding.

In his Cy Younger season of 2022, Verlander threw 4 pitch varieties; opponents couldn’t handle a .200 batting common or a .300 slugging towards any of them. In 2024, Verlander’s two commonest pitches had been his fastball (towards which opponents hit .299 and slugged .497) and his curveball (.340 and .560).

I apologize for being barely unkind with this subsequent half, however listed here are some chosen stats from two veteran beginning pitchers who hit the free agent market this winter. One is Verlander. Are you able to guess which one, and who the opposite is?

Participant B is Verlander. Participant A is Patrick Corbin.

And on the threat of complaining about each the meals and the portion measurement, Corbin stayed wholesome all yr and Verlander didn’t. Two stints on the IL — one for shoulder irritation and one other for neck discomfort — restricted Verlander to 17 begins and simply 90 1/3 innings. That’s a profession low, other than his two-start debut in 2005 and his Tommy John-imposed sabbatical.

It’s why Verlander is making $15 million to play for the Giants as an alternative of $35 million to play for the Astros, which looks like it will’ve been Armageddon for a workforce that simply traded Kyle Tucker earlier than he received too costly.

These days, $15 million doesn’t purchase all that a lot on the beginning pitching market. I’m hardly the primary observer to note that Verlander received the identical assured contract from San Francisco that Alex Cobb received from Verlander’s outdated workforce, the Tigers. Cobb made solely three begins final yr, and at 37, he’s not that a lot youthful than Verlander. Nor does he have something like Verlander’s celebrity historical past.

However $15 million is nearly what it prices to get a no. 5 starter for a yr on the free agent market. And as arduous as it’s to imagine, that’s about the place Verlander slots into the Giants’ rotation, behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison.

Posey, the retired celebrity with zero baseball ops expertise, is exclusive amongst baseball’s 30 prince-bishops of roster development. His appointment is a throwback to an older, much less enlightened age. It’s Wayne Gretzky teaching the Arizona Coyotes or Ted Williams managing the Senators.

I’m fascinated by Posey’s each transfer. Partially as a result of, within the post-Theo Epstein gold rush to stuff each entrance workplace with personal college MBAs till you run out of team-branded quarter-zips, entrance workplace thought has gotten fairly same-y. No matter Posey does, it’s totally different, and due to this fact fascinating. But when he wades into this job with out correct forethought and humility, it may be a extremely entertaining failure.

And but, as a lot as my angle towards the present Giants might greatest be described as “skeptical rubbernecking,” I do know that Posey just isn’t an fool. He’s not signing Verlander as a result of he thinks he’s getting a no. 1 starter for the price of a flippantly used Cleveland Guardians castoff. He’s signing Verlander as a result of, like each workforce, the Giants want innings in bulk. And whereas Verlander may be cooked, it bears repeating that he was harm final yr and enjoying in an unfavorable dwelling ballpark. Furthermore, Verlander allowed his highest opponent BABIP in a decade, and his xERA was greater than a run and a half decrease than his ERA. There’s an argument (I don’t know if I purchase it, nevertheless it exists) that Verlander’s decline has been exaggerated by rotten batted ball luck. Which might make him ripe for a bounce-back season, even regardless of his superior age.

Unkink Verlander’s neck, settle his rating with the BABIP gods, and put him in a stadium with an enormous outfield; you may get 100 league-average innings out of him. Absolutely that’s a worthwhile funding of $15 million on this market. No less than, that appears to be the logic. We’ll see if it seems to be sound.