The Dodgers’ New-Look Outfield Has Been a Hit So Far

The 2023 season is barely every week outdated, however the Dodgers need to be fairly glad with the early returns from their outfield. Mookie Betts apart, the unit entered the season filled with query marks, and people solely acquired bigger as soon as supervisor Dave Roberts needed to begin transferring gamers round to cowl for Gavin Lux’s season-ending ACL tear. But via the crew’s first six video games, rookie James Outman, holdover Trayce Thompson, and newcomer Jason Heyward have every produced some spectacular performances that supply hope they will help to offset the crew’s notable offseason departures.

Lux was alleged to be the Dodgers’ common shortstop, and whereas the crew quickly traded for Miguel Rojas to be the common, his loss pulled Chris Taylor into the combination to a higher diploma than anticipated. In flip, the Dodgers have introduced Betts into the second base combine; recall that the longer term Corridor of Fame proper fielder — you heard me — started his skilled profession within the center infield, and spent the final two weeks of his 52-game rookie season filling in on the keystone for the injured Dustin Pedroia.

Given the anticipation that each Taylor and Betts would spend extra time on the filth, the Dodgers discovered room for each Heyward, a 33-year-old non-roster invitee who was launched by the Cubs final 12 months, the penultimate considered one of his eight-year, $184 million contract, and Outman, a 25-year-old prospect who entered the season with 4 video games of main league expertise. Each lefty swingers are on the roster along with the righty-swinging Thompson, who loved a pleasant little breakout within the second half of his age-31 season, and lefty David Peralta, a free agent whom the Dodgers signed to a one-year, $6.5 million deal mid-February.

Via the primary six video games, Roberts has written out 5 completely different outfield combos — 5 completely different lineups in all, in actual fact. His Opening Day 9 included an outfield of Peralta, Outman, and Betts, which was repeated the subsequent day, however every successive sport provided a brand new look. Right here’s a breakdown by innings performed among the many outfielders, together with their time spent within the infield as nicely:

Nearly day-after-day, a number of of these outfielders has stepped up for the Dodgers with a giant hit or two. The crew beat the Diamondbacks 8-2 on Opening Day, with Outman going 2-for-3 with a stroll and three runs scored, together with a sixth-inning homer off Cole Sulser. They misplaced 2-1 the subsequent day, with Betts’ solo homer accounting for the one run, however on Saturday, Thompson made his season debut with a three-homer, eight-RBI sport.

Sunday was one other 2-1 loss, with Betts accounting for the one hit among the many outfielders, however in Monday’s 13-4 romp in opposition to the Rockies, Outman tripled twice and drove in three runs, whereas Heyward, in his first begin with the crew, went 2-for-3 with a two-run residence run and three RBIs. Heyward crushed one other homer, a 112.7-mph scorcher, in Tuesday’s 5-2 win over Colorado.

In all, the Dodgers outfielders have hit a mixed .267/.352/.700 in 71 plate appearances; their SLG, seven homers, and 1.2 WAR lead the majors, whereas their 172 wRC+ is second on the place behind the Rays (178). For as spectacular as it’s, that efficiency is (checks notes) not sustainable, but it surely does illustrate the upside the Dodgers see from this group, which not solely has to assist offset the lack of Lux but in addition free agent departures Justin Turner, Trea Turner, and Cody Bellinger — the final of whom remained an distinctive middle fielder whilst his offense collapsed — as nicely. No strain, guys.

As for what’s sustainable, it’s value taking a better look. Outman was a seventh-round 2018 draft select of Cal State-Sacramento who acquired his first cup of espresso from the Dodgers final 12 months, hitting .462/.563/.846 in 16 PA, all from a four-game stretch from July 31-August 4. Regardless of that exhibiting and continued sturdy work within the minors (.294/.393/.586 with 31 homers however a 27.2% strikeout price at Double-A and Triple-A), he didn’t get one other massive league look. On reflection, it’s exhausting to consider he couldn’t have outhit Bellinger (.210/.265/.389, 83 wRC+) or Joey Gallo (.162/.277/.393/, 91 wRC+) even when he cooled off.

Outman, who turns 26 on Might 14, entered the season rated as a 40 FV prospect by Eric Longenhagen, no. 26 on FanGraphs’ Dodgers’ checklist, although it’s value noting that The Athletic, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline all included him inside their organizational high 10s primarily based on larger grades for a few of his instruments. Outman has plus pace, a plus arm, and above-average uncooked energy; the differing assessments hinge on his hit device and the extent to which his future is in middle area. On the previous, Longenhagen graded at a 30 current worth and 40 future worth whereas noting, “His uppercut swing helps him hit the ball within the air frequently… and his ball/strike recognition helps him hunt pitches he can injury. An absence of barrel management and in-zone vulnerability in opposition to letter-high fastballs means he’ll probably find yourself with a 40-grade hit device at finest, and one supply was additionally bothered by his breaking ball recognition.” To that time, Outman is 0-for-6 with six strikeouts in opposition to breaking balls in his younger main league profession. As for the center pasture, Longenhagen wrote, “Outman’s really feel in middle area is barely honest, and whereas he can play on the market in a pinch, he’s higher suited to proper area, the place he performed all however a couple of instances throughout the again half of 2022.” Against this, Baseball America famous that many groups consider he will be an on a regular basis middle fielder, not less than as a part of a platoon.

Outman has sufficient energy to supply league-average manufacturing even with a low batting common, and sufficient defensive worth to be value round two wins if he does. Through Dan Szymborski, right here’s his ZiPS percentile projection, primarily based on 534 PA:

If Outman continues to be one thing of an unknown, then so too is that this model of Heyward. He hit for simply an 88 wRC+ with 8.2 WAR in seven seasons with the Cubs, together with a dismal .204/.278/.277 (61 wRC+) with one homer in 151 PA earlier than happening the IL with proper knee irritation final June. He completed the season on the 60-day IL and drew his launch in November. The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal in December and helped him rebuild his swing with the assistance of hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, who’s identified for having revitalized the careers of Taylor and J.D. Martinez, the latter of whom the Dodgers signed to be their full-time DH.

Jason Heyward’s new set-up & his outdated one

Dodgers have helped him decrease his fingers and flatten his bat path, hoping he’ll be capable of cowl extra of the plate along with his swing pic.twitter.com/iXNEp3RU5U

— Jack Harris (@Jack_A_Harris) February 27, 2023

Van Scoyoc has labored with Heyward to decrease his fingers and transfer them additional away from his physique, cut back his motion as soon as the pitcher begins his supply, and discover a extra direct path to the ball. “We labored on his decrease half, his legs, how he makes use of his again facet, hand place, bat path, sequencing – all of it… getting [him] right into a place the place he’s extra balanced, extra athletic, holds the bottom along with his again leg,” Van Scoyoc instructed the Orange County Register’s Invoice Plunkett not too long ago.

Although Heyward has referred to as his swing “a piece in progress,” already the trouble has paid dividends; in spite of everything, he’s already doubled final 12 months’s residence run output, and his 112.7-mph exit velocity in his residence run off Germán Márquez matched the second-highest of his profession (or not less than the Statcast period portion of it), surpassed solely by a 115.3-mph double on Might 14, 2021 off the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal.

Given his current performances, ZiPS isn’t terribly optimistic about Heyward, although he did hit .265/.392/.456 (131 wRC+) within the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. His percentile breakdown, primarily based on 358 PA, eyeballs as giving him a few 25% probability of being a league-average hitter:

Remarkably sufficient, Thompson is essentially the most established of the three, a reclamation undertaking who has already paid off; I delved into his journey intimately final September, so right here I’ll hit the highlights. The son of former NBA star Mychal Thompson and the brother of present star Klay Thompson performed for the Dodgers in 2016–17 after being acquired in a three-team commerce by the White Sox in December 2015. After a robust begin in 2016, he slumped via a decrease again harm earlier than it was lastly recognized as a pair of fractured vertebrae. He spent 2017-22 bouncing round, passing via the fingers of the Dodgers, Yankees, A’s, White Sox (once more), Indians, Diamondbacks, and Cubs, for whom he whacked 4 homers in 35 PA in September 2021.

Thompson started final season with the Padres however performed simply six video games earlier than being launched. He caught on with the Tigers however didn’t make it out of Triple-A, and was offered to the Dodgers for money on June 20. Accidents to Betts and Taylor quickly opened up taking part in time for him, and he simply saved hitting, ending at .256/.353/.507 (142 wRC+) with 13 homers in 255 PA, an enormous step up from the .208/.283/.405 (85 wRC+) he hit in 624 PA from 2015 to ’21. His 153 wRC+ in 239 PA with the Dodgers trailed solely Freddie Freeman, and his 2.8 WAR with the crew ranked sixth amongst place gamers regardless of his PA complete rating tenth.

Thompson is one other participant who remade his swing, and in his case it was with a cavalcade of Remembered Guys who helped him, together with former Oklahoma Metropolis hitting coach Shawn Wooten and former All-Stars Marlon Byrd and Grady Sizemore, with an help from former teammate Joc Pederson.

His ensuing efficiency was considered one of extremes. When Thompson made contact, he hit the stuffing out of the ball, with a 92.2 mph common exit velocity, 16.4% barrel price, and 46.9% hard-hit price; he didn’t have sufficient batted ball occasions to qualify, but when he had, the exit velo would have positioned within the 93rd percentile, the barrel price within the 97th, and his .496 xSLG within the 94th. Within the restricted quantity of bat pace information that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello premiered in midseason, he had the quickest common swing of any Dodger, and trailed solely Julio Rodríguez, Luis Robert Jr., Giancarlo Stanton and Franmil Reyes amongst an admittedly restricted number of qualifiers.

However, Thompson struck out an alarming 36.5% of the time, the sixth-highest mark of the 317 gamers with not less than 250 PA. Of the 15 gamers who struck out not less than one-third of the time, solely 4 others had a wRC+ of 100 or higher, led by J.D. Davis‘ 119 in 365 PA. Thompson had an enormous reverse platoon cut up, hitting for a 78 wRC+ in opposition to lefties (.174/.260/.360 in 96 PA) and a 182 in opposition to righties (.308/.409/.602 in 159 PA), and was notably flummoxed by four-seamers from southpaws (.156 AVG/.375 SLG, with a 40% whiff price).

As you may infer from his total strikeout price, sustaining such sturdy manufacturing required a excessive BABIP; Thompson’s .374 mark was certainly the best of these 317 hitters, six factors above the best official qualifier for the batting title, NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt. So… that’s in all probability not sustainable, both. As for what’s, right here’s his ZiPS percentile projection, primarily based on 395 PA:

Given his stable protection in any respect three outfield spots, that’s a few 50% probability of league-average manufacturing.

In all, the emergence of this unlikely trio and the presence of the versatile Betts and Taylor has given Roberts the prospect to combine and match in methods that may assist conceal a few of their weaknesses, and whereas every participant’s monitor document presents causes for skepticism, by now the Dodgers’ success in rejuvenating stalled careers ought to afford them not less than some good thing about the doubt. The successes of Heyward, Outman, and Thompson alone received’t make this crew a powerhouse; myriad different query marks abound, from each ends of the pitching employees to Martinez, Taylor (who actually struggled late final 12 months), and rookie Miguel Vargas. Nonetheless, the previous week has urged that this crew may provide its share of surprises, which ought to put the NL’s different contenders on discover.