The Dodgers Have Had a Strange Offseason

Possibly we shouldn’t doubt the Dodgers. They’ve received 9 out of the final 10 NL West titles, and within the yr they didn’t win the division, they received 106 video games. They’re juggernauts by design, a staff constructed to resist the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. They draft properly, develop properly, spend a ton of cash, and spend that cash intelligently. They’re the closest factor baseball has to a dynasty today, and given the inherent randomness of the playoffs, that’s not prone to change anytime quickly.

That’s all true – and regardless of all of it, I’m leaning in the direction of doubting their probabilities in 2023. For the primary time in years, I don’t have to leap by hoops to give you causes to take action. The Dodgers appear to be among the best groups in baseball, however they now not look, at the very least to me, like absolutely the class of the league. It’s bizarre to consider it that approach, however let’s discuss by it collectively.

First issues first: the Dodgers misplaced a ton of excellent free brokers this yr, identical to they do yearly. That’s merely the price of doing enterprise while you’re good as constantly as they’re; your staff will naturally be stuffed with nice gamers approaching free company. This yr’s iteration of the staff misplaced a whopping 21.3 WAR value of 2022 manufacturing, the best mark within the majors. The record of the highest 5 groups on the subject of misplaced 2022 manufacturing is a who’s who of golf equipment making an attempt to contend proper now:

Hey, while you take a look at it that approach, it’s not so unhealthy! The Yankees and the Mets are proper there with the Dodgers. Solely, you must take into account each side of the ledger. The Yankees, for instance, misplaced 11.4 WAR value of manufacturing from Aaron Choose alone. However uh, they nonetheless have Choose after signing him again in free company. Listed here are these 5 groups once more, with two new columns this time: 2022 WAR added in free company and the online beneficial properties or losses total:

The Dodgers have skilled the largest expertise drain within the majors this offseason. The crop of free brokers they’ve signed produced 14.3 fewer WAR in 2022 than the previous Dodgers who departed in free company. That’s the bottom mark within the majors by far:

These losses aren’t contained to a single space. Trea Turner was arguably their finest participant in 2022. Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney gave them precious begins and innings. The bullpen misplaced an combination 153.2 innings of wonderful pitching, to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and three.02 FIP (excluding the mop-up innings that Hanser Alberto dealt with). Justin Turner posted a 123 wRC+. Even Cody Bellinger, who left after the staff non-tendered him, performed glorious protection and accounted for 1.7 WAR regardless of his continued offensive failings.

In Dan Szymborski’s just lately revealed ZiPS projections, you’ll be able to see the staff’s shortcomings. For the primary time because the 2019 season, the Dodgers have a beginning place projected for lower than two WAR – James Outman and Miguel Vargas mix to challenge for 1.2 WAR in left area, and Outman and Trayce Thompson challenge for 1.9 WAR in heart. A second base by committee state of affairs barely clears that arbitrary 2.0 WAR bar; Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, and Michael Busch are the headliners of a bunch that ZiPS initiatives for two.1 WAR.

In fact, it was by no means cheap to count on a staff to proceed racking up common season wins on the clip the Dodgers have managed in recent times. Up to now 5 full seasons, they’ve averaged 104 wins per yr. They performed at a 116-win tempo within the shortened 2020 season. Wanting churning out a brand new batch of phenoms, they had been by no means going to carry that tempo.

That’s to not say that their farm system hasn’t produced massive league expertise. Vargas, Busch, and Outman are all rookies. Diego Cartaya and Andy Pages are every solely 21, however each appear to be future stars. There’s a crop of pitchers on the way in which, too, led by Bobby Miller. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin Might are younger, controllable, and glorious. As of final season’s finish, The Board had the Dodgers because the quantity seven farm system within the recreation even after all of the trades they’ve made up to now few years.

However in the event you’re in search of a yr the place the Dodgers appear mortal, 2023 may be your finest guess. Gavin Lux isn’t any positive factor at shortstop. Vargas has performed precisely one inning at third base within the majors. Muncy is 32 and might be taking part in out of place nearly day by day; he’s posted respectable numbers at second base, however with incoming defensive positioning restrictions, his vary and arm might be examined greater than ever. The Dodgers’ offense will nonetheless be glorious – they’ve Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith anchoring their lineup – however it’s unlikely to be the most effective lineup within the recreation this yr. Per our Depth Charts projections, they’ve the eighth-best crop of place gamers.

The beginning rotation checks in at ninth in those self same projections, although I believe that underrates the Los Angeles starters. Lacking Walker Buehler will undoubtedly harm, however even with out him, they’ll run out 5 above-average starters with extra reinforcements accessible within the excessive minors. They’ve additionally proven a constant capability to get extra out of short-term free agent signings than anticipated; would it not shock anybody to see Noah Syndergaard bounce again this yr?

The Dodgers are nonetheless betting favorites to win the division, however they’re practically neck-and-neck with the Padres, and our projections just like the Padres extra. This absolutely hasn’t gone unnoticed in Chavez Ravine. Even when the Dodgers are extra optimistic about their inner replacements than our projections, the expertise drain is plain. Why haven’t they performed extra in free company?

I’ve a couple of concepts, none of that are ironclad. First, it’s value noting that the Dodgers will probably squeeze beneath the primary aggressive stability tax threshold this yr. That threshold is $233 million, and we at present have the Dodgers juuuuuust beneath, with a projected $232,899,125 CBT payroll. Being a greenback beneath that threshold has enormous financial advantages because of repeat overage penalties.

The aggressive stability tax charge adjustments based mostly each on the quantity by which a staff exceeds the primary CBT threshold and the variety of seasons in a row that staff has exceeded the primary threshold. Right here’s the matrix of attainable tax charges based mostly on these two variables:

How does this have an effect on the Dodgers’ whole payroll outlay? In each 2021 and ’22, the Dodgers exceeded the primary CBT threshold. That implies that in the event that they finish the yr with a payroll above $233 million, they’ll pay the best attainable tax charge on their overages.

That may add as much as some huge cash. For example, think about that beginning in 2024, the Dodgers run a CBT payroll of precisely $300 million yearly. In the event that they head into 2024 after not paying any tax in ’23, they’ll owe $91 million in funds from ’24 to ’26. In the event that they as an alternative run that very same $300 million payroll yearly, however head into 2024 having exceeded the primary threshold for 3 straight years, they’ll owe $122 million over these three years. That’s a considerable financial savings, and this yr is the primary the place it’s made sense for the Dodgers to take action; they couldn’t have moderately ducked beneath the brink in 2021 or ’22 because of roster development, however they’d an enormous variety of gamers depart this winter.

This case is much more precarious because of Trevor Bauer’s contract. Bauer received an enchantment that diminished his suspension by a yr. He’s now due roughly $22.5 million this yr, which counts in opposition to the staff’s CBT payroll no matter whether or not Bauer rejoins the staff (his wage is included within the projected CBT payroll determine referenced above). The uncertainty round that call reportedly factored into the staff’s conservative offseason plans, and given how shut they’re to exceeding the primary threshold, it appears probably that they made their selections with Bauer’s enchantment in thoughts. They might should make additional concessions to stay beneath the CBT restrict, however given their proximity to it and their decision-making up to now this offseason, I’m guessing resetting their CBT standing is essential to them.

That value financial savings ties into my subsequent thought: the Dodgers are setting as much as land Shohei Ohtani subsequent offseason. Ohtani seems to be headed for the biggest contract in historical past, and with good purpose: he’s a generational expertise hitting free company in his prime. The bidding might be fierce, and a few early estimates have eclipsed a $500 million whole contract measurement. Groups that suppose they stand an affordable shot of touchdown Ohtani ought to completely be planning round that now if it doesn’t mess with their present plans an excessive amount of, and I’d argue that the Dodgers have performed simply that.

Regardless of their constantly excessive spending habits, the Dodgers are hardly within the enterprise of signing a prime free agent yearly. They’ve completed numerous staff constructing by creating and lengthening their very own gamers or by buying and selling for stars. For each Freddie Freeman, there’s a Julio Urías. Even in the event you consider Betts as basically a free agent signing – they traded for him a yr earlier than he would attain free company and gave him an extension that yr – he and Freeman are the one gamers incomes greater than $20 million a yr. Clayton Kershaw is available in at precisely $20 million. The Dodgers run massive combination payrolls, however they do this as a result of they pay as much as retain their very own gamers.

In case you suppose that they’ll usually proceed to construct the roster in that type, including one other top-tier free agent this offseason would begin to complicate their capability to signal Ohtani whereas operating a remotely cheap payroll. One of many Dodgers’ long-running strengths has been depth; when one in every of their stars disappoints or will get injured, they all the time appear to have another person to throw into the combination. Most groups lose these gamers to roster crunch and free company, however not the Dodgers. They constantly have extra succesful beginning pitchers than they will use in a rotation at one time, they usually gave each Taylor and Muncy eight-figure common annual values to keep up that depth. In the event that they’re intent on persevering with that roster type and have their eyes on an enormous title within the 2024 class, it will make sense to take a seat ’23 out for probably the most half.

One different possibility: perhaps the Dodgers simply didn’t like several of the highest free brokers this yr. Choose was the one top-tier outfielder available on the market this offseason, and if the Dodgers are increased on Lux than trade consensus, it’s fully cheap that they merely didn’t see a purpose to splurge on a shortstop after they had a younger participant of their very own they needed to provide the job. Certain, there have been loads of glorious pitchers accessible, however I like their rotation, and it’s fully attainable that they aren’t keen to provide long-term offers to pitchers, interval. To the most effective of my data, they haven’t signed a pitcher to a contract longer than three years since Kenley Jansen’s extension kicked in approach again in 2017.

No matter what the Dodgers are doing, I don’t suppose you’ll be able to write this offseason off as merely them being cheapskates. Their entrance workplace has constantly been among the best within the recreation for a decade, and possession has by no means been averse to spending when it is smart. It’s enjoyable to play armchair GM and say {that a} staff merely isn’t doing sufficient, or that they don’t know construct a winner. That might be a laughable declare right here; the Dodgers have proven time and time once more that they deserve the advantage of the doubt.

That is no blind enchantment to authority; the Dodgers are a well-run group. That doesn’t make their plan any much less fascinating, although. The Dodgers might have performed extra to maximise their 2023 staff’s probabilities of successful the NL West or the World Collection. In case you might ask Andrew Friedman that query in non-public, I’m positive he’d concur. The query, then, is what they’re doing as an alternative. I believe they’re constructing to a in a different way formed however nonetheless dominant staff in 2024. Their NL West opponents could be properly suggested to place their finest foot ahead this yr – I don’t know what the long run holds, however it’s fully attainable that 2023 will find yourself because the weakest Dodger staff of the last decade.