The definitive guide to Jaylen Brown’s All-Defense campaign

The world is stuffed with unsolved mysteries, unexplainable phenomena, and the unanswerable. We aren’t right here to instantly handle these issues, issues like: do you eat or drink a Go-Gurt? The place does my cat go after I’m satisfied she’s misplaced then bounds out from someplace 10 minutes later? Does Jaylen Brown should make an All-Protection workforce?

That’s not the aim of this explicit article. As a substitute, we’re right here to help these which are inclined to make the argument that Jaylen does deserve it. These that can look Herb Jones, OG Anunoby, and Jrue Vacation within the face and say, “not this yr, boys.”

It gained’t be an train in uncooked bias nonetheless. Each defender has faults, even one of the best. This will likely be an trustworthy have a look at the great and unhealthy from Jaylen Brown’s protection this season. First, we’ll check out the stats that again Jaylen Brown’s case, then the video portion of our presentation will begin. On to the enjoyable stuff.

The numbers

Evaluating protection with stats is a fickle endeavor, however we’re going to strive it anyway. The extra conventional defensive stats don’t bounce out for JB. He’s exterior the top-50 in particular person defensive score, the Celtics protection will get about 3.5 factors per 100 possessions worse when Jaylen’s on the courtroom (per PBP Stats), and his 1.7 shares (steals and blocks) per recreation is sweet, however not nice.

Essentially the most damning of these numbers is the on/off differential. It’s by no means a great signal when your workforce will get worse on both facet of the ball while you play, however context issues. Usually, Mazzulla will pull Tatum and one in every of our elite defensive guards for some mixture of bench gamers (normally Hauser and Horford) midway by means of the primary and third quarters. Whereas Al continues to be nice, that’s, to place it mildly, a defensive downgrade. Brown logs a whole lot of minutes in opposition to starters, many with out his co-star, which undoubtedly hurts the protection. So the differential is a mark in opposition to Brown’s candidacy, but it surely’s not the demise knell it seems to be at first.

The superior metrics are extra in all places than a Greek yogurt after my child ignores the spoon and tries to “drink” it. BBall Index’s Defensive LEBRON has him center of the highway and he’s been measuring as a destructive defender all season in DARKO’s Defensive Each day Plus Minus. With that stated, he’s within the 89th percentile of Dunks and Threes’ Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus. What does all that inform us? Not a complete lot, but when we dig a bit of deeper, issues begin to get attention-grabbing (or a minimum of I, and possibly you, hope so).

Like that one ex-coworker I at all times use as a reference, there are a couple of that talk very extremely of JB. He’s twenty fourth amongst qualifying gamers in defensive win shares, which interprets your defensive field rating influence into the variety of wins you’ve added. Fairly good, and when you begin entering into play-type information, Jaylen’s case begins to shine.

He’s top-20 in defending three of the commonest NBA play-types (per Synergy).

Isolations:

Submit ups:

Off-ball Screens:

He’s within the prime half defending choose and roll ballhandlers and spot ups, however a lot nearer to common than elite in opposition to these play-types. That each one provides as much as a participant that’s elite at defending three essential performs and probably not unhealthy at defending any, a minimum of based on the stats.

It’s additionally price noting that Jaylen is an effective defensive rebounder for his place. He averages 4.4 a recreation and has a 11.7% Defensive Rebounding Proportion, which places him at forty fifth of 174 qualifying guards and forwards (sorted by NBA.com’s bizarre positions, so guys like Scottie Barnes are included). That’s good, simply above common, however not nice. He additionally has successfully no influence on how the Celtics defensive rebound as a workforce.

The defensive stats aren’t otherworldly for JB, however that’s not unusual for almost each non-big within the NBA. Even defenders with elite reputations have statistical black-eyes, which could be the lamest black-eyes in existence. Most significantly, the stats don’t undermine an argument for Jaylen making the All-Protection workforce, which implies we’re on to step 2.

The video

No matter JB’s All-Protection candidacy, he’s improved massively as a defender this season. That alone needs to be encouraging, however we aren’t right here for participation trophies or to reward attempting actually exhausting, in any other case Aaron Nesmith can be a front-runner for Defensive Participant of the Yr. Jaylen hasn’t simply improved defensively, he’s gotten actually, actually good.

One thing he’s at all times had within the bag is his capacity to protect straight-up quite a lot of totally different gamers. In playoffs previous, he’s held down Pascal Siakam and was the simplest Celtic on James Harden final yr (it’s a disgrace the season was cancelled after the Sixers collection, and we by no means bought to see how that playoff run ended). That versatility has taken heart stage this season. Right here he’s on Bam and Rozier in the identical possession, chopping them each off.

His anti-Siakam agenda has continued this season. It nearly looks like bullying at this level.

He’s nice in opposition to these huge ballhandler varieties, but it surely’s his capacity to match energy with these varieties after which match quickness with level guards is the place JB actually wrings out his defensive worth. This subsequent clip is from the identical recreation. Say what you need about Dennis Schroeder, and I’ve, however there’s no denying he’s one of many quickest gamers within the NBA.

It’s extraordinarily tough to not solely match Dennis’ quickness, however to tug your arms again to keep away from fouling whereas doing so is extraordinarily high-level stuff. To place it merely, Jaylen Brown is an elite on-ball defender, and it will be exhausting to argue in any other case.

I want we may finish it there. I want I may get on an plane provider, stand in entrance of a comically massive signal with the background of the American flag that claims “Mission Completed,” give an enormous ol’ thumbs up and declare victory. Jaylen Brown is All-Protection.

Sadly, off-ball protection exists. All shouldn’t be misplaced, nonetheless. JB is indubitably a worse off-ball defender than on, and in years previous he’s been hopelessly misplaced at instances, however he’s worlds higher this season. He’s not often getting backdoor minimize and has been doing a superb job of shading off shooters to assist, and getting again when the kick-out comes.

Throughout extra difficult units, like this Miami out of timeout play, he’s understanding his obligations faster.

He jumps out to Herro as soon as he acknowledges it’s a double pindown, after which passes him off and switches onto Love, capping the possession off with a hard-fought defensive board. Excellent stuff.

He’s additionally opportunistic when he senses an opportunity to drive a turnover. After he cuts off Cole Anthony superbly, he ambushes Franz Wagner along with his fast and highly effective arms.

His diligence off-ball has completely improved, and he’s doing a significantly better job monitoring shooters by means of screening actions. However his it’s nonetheless missing. He simply doesn’t learn the sport in the identical means elite off-ball defenders do and is susceptible to small lapses that may result in factors. Like on this play, he will get caught ball watching, which permits Buddy Hield to carry from the nook with none adjustment from JB. He’s pressured to scramble again to Hield who blows proper by for a simple 2.

Or on this play the place he tries to cross of Siakam to Sam Hauser, who’s already protecting the nook shooter. It permits Toronto to get a very simple mismatch with Siakam on Hauser, which they promptly ignore. Then, Gary Trent takes a nasty three, which he makes.

His flighty off-ball abilities might not have damage the Cs on that play, but it surely’s indicative of his weaknesses in that section of the sport. These aren’t protection undermining errors, however while you’re attempting to make an All-Protection workforce, stuff like this issues. Excessive stage defenders care for the small print on each single possession. There’s nonetheless a couple of too many miscommunications the place Brown is closely featured.

Maybe KP ought to have switched onto Bey as a substitute of dropped on this play, but it surely’s exhausting to offer Jaylen the advantage of the doubt along with his observe report.

No matter his faults, there’s immense worth in an elite and versatile on-ball defender that’s additionally fairly good off-ball. Jaylen’s capacity to man up in opposition to nearly any participant within the league whereas preserving the protection principally intact off-ball is an enormous piece of the Celtics’ machine. The Cs can unleash him on nearly any star participant and belief that he’ll maintain his personal.

So, does Jaylen Brown should make the All-Protection workforce? Actually, I’d lean in the direction of no, however the truth you’ll be able to even make a (hopefully) cogent argument about his All-Protection candidacy is a large referendum on his defensive enchancment. Jaylen Brown might not but be the elite of elite defenders, however with the way in which he improves each season, I wouldn’t put it previous him.