With left-hander Shota Imanaga poised to hitch Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks within the Cubs’ rotation instead of Marcus Stroman this season after the veteran righty signed with the Yankees final month, one spot stays open within the membership’s beginning rotation with pitchers and catchers set to report back to camp for Spring Coaching subsequent week. Whereas it’s not not possible to think about a shock commerce for or signing of an arm resembling Shane Bieber (who the Cubs have been related to earlier this winter) or Jordan Montgomery, all indications level towards the Cubs turning their consideration in the direction of a reunion with Cody Bellinger at this level within the offseason.
Ought to Chicago enter the 2024 marketing campaign with solely their inner rotation choices, right here’s a take a look at who may very well be into account to hitch the beginning 5:
The 34-year-old left-hander, in some methods, seems to be the plain alternative for the ultimate spot within the Cubs’ rotation. Signed to a two-year, $19MM contract final winter, Smyly began 23 video games for Chicago final yr and loved quite a lot of success early within the season, together with a 10-strikeout sport in late April the place the southpaw got here fell simply 4 outs wanting an ideal sport. By way of 15 begins, Smyly had a robust 3.38 ERA and an honest FIP of 4.33, although his strikeout fee of simply 19.9% raised some eyebrows.
Sadly for Smyly, the wheels got here off from there for him. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 6.88 FIP in 35 innings of labor throughout his subsequent eight appearances and located himself demoted to the bullpen, the place he discovered some strong success in brief reduction. In sixteen reduction appearances from August 13 onward, Smyly dominated with a 1.13 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of labor and a 33.7% strikeout fee. These robust reduction outings didn’t translate to raised efficiency out of the rotation, nevertheless, as Smyly surrendered 10 runs in simply 4 innings of labor throughout his closing two begins of the season on August 22 and October 1.
Given Smyly’s superlative outcomes out of the bullpen late within the season and his pronounced struggles as a member of the rotation, it appears unlikely that the Cubs would supply Smyly the within monitor to the fifth starter position getting into the 2024 marketing campaign, although it’s potential he may earn the position via a mixture of robust efficiency this spring and accidents to different choices.
Wesneski received a camp battle for the membership’s fifth starter spot final spring, beating out veteran right-hander Adrian Sampson for the position. Wesneski’s alternative within the rotation got here on the heels of a stellar debut late within the 2022 season, shortly after Chicago acquired him from the Yankees on the commerce deadline in change for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. In six appearances down the stretch for the Cubs that yr, Wesneski dominated to a 2.18 ERA and three.20 FIP whereas putting out 25% of batters confronted.
Sadly, Wesneski’s 2023 audition for a rotation job didn’t go practically as properly, as he allowed a 5.33 ERA and 5.96 FIP throughout 50 2/3 innings of labor over 11 appearances (10 begins) to open the season. Wesneski was moved to multi-inning reduction shortly there after and would make only one begin (which lasted solely two innings) the remainder of the season, posting a decent 3.72 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of labor over his closing 23 appearances. It’s not arduous to think about Wesneski returning to the beginning rotation in some unspecified time in the future sooner or later, because the 26-year-old stays below membership management via the 2028 marketing campaign, although it seems doubtless he has been surpassed by different children on the rotational depth chart in the meanwhile.
Essentially the most skilled arm on this checklist outdoors of Smyly, the 26-year-old Assad made his huge league debut in 2022 and pitched decently in a nine-appearance cup of espresso the place he posted a 3.11 ERA and 4.49 FIP over 37 2/3 innings of labor. Assad competed with Sampson and Wesneski for the fifth starter position out of camp final yr, although his bid for the position was sophisticated by a detour to take part within the World Baseball Basic for Crew Mexico.
Assad’s time within the event noticed him dazzle with 5 2/3 scoreless innings of labor as a multi-inning reliever. He struck out six on simply two hits and a stroll whereas touching 97 along with his heater. The robust efficiency in a reduction position led the Cubs to enter the season with Assad in that position, although he struggled to a 9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 innings throughout his first three appearances for Chicago final yr, prompting the membership to possibility him to Triple-A.
Upon returning to the majors in early Could, Assad dominated out of the bullpen for the subsequent three months, posting a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of labor throughout 16 appearances regardless of a 4.01 FIP. The Cubs then moved him to the rotation for almost all of the stretch run, and the right-hander held his personal within the position with a 2.88 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 59 1/3 innings of labor throughout the season’s closing two months. Assad’s high quality work within the rotation down the stretch with Chicago final summer season ought to give him the chance to earn the ultimate spot within the membership’s rotation this spring, although its potential the Cubs worth his versatility as a participant who’s had success swinging out and in of the rotation all through his younger profession.
Chicago’s first spherical decide within the 2021 draft, Wicks has probably the most spectacular prospect pedigree of any of the membership’s doubtless fifth starter choices this spring. The southpaw has rapidly climbed the minor league ladder and reached the majors final yr with simply 48 begins within the minor leagues below his belt, resulting in some high 100 prospect buzz this winter with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel rating Wicks because the #41 prospect in the whole sport, simply 5 spots behind Kyle Harrison of the Giants. That spectacular rating is basically backed up by Wicks’ efficiency on the sphere. In 20 begins cut up between the Double- and Triple-A ranges final yr, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA in 91 1/3 innings of labor whereas punching out 26.5% of batters confronted.
The lefty’s main league debut went practically as properly, as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.95 FIP in 33 innings of labor throughout his first six begins within the huge leagues, although he struck out simply 17% of batters confronted throughout that point. Sadly, Wicks suffered the primary blow-up begin of his huge league profession in his closing begin of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits and one stroll in simply 1 2/3 innings of labor in opposition to the Brewers. That left him with a uninspiring 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP throughout his first style of massive league motion, although he did generate grounders at a strong 46.8% clip throughout that point.
Given the success he’s flashed within the majors and his prospect pedigree, it could hardly be a shock to see the Cubs hand Wicks the keys to the ultimate spot in Chicago’s rotation this spring, although its potential his low strikeout fee within the majors and ugly closing begin final yr lead the membership to imagine the 24-year-old southpaw, who has pitched simply 33 innings on the Triple-A degree up to now in his profession, wants extra time to develop within the minors earlier than becoming a member of the rotation full time.
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The aforementioned 4 arms look like the most definitely inner choices for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot to open the season, although there are at handful of darkish horse choices value a point out as properly. Prime pitching prospect Cade Horton was the membership’s first spherical decide within the 2022 draft and is usually regarded even higher than Wicks after he dominated the decrease minors to the tune of a 2.65 ERA in 21 begins final yr. With that being mentioned, the 22-year-old has no expertise above the Double-A degree, the place he made simply six begins final yr, and has not but been stretched out to the extent required for a giant league beginning pitcher as he topped 75 pitches in an outing simply thrice final yr.
Ben Brown is one other prospect who has gotten top-100 buzz for the Cubs. Not like Horton, he’s already on the 40-man roster and has reached the Triple-A degree, although he struggled to a 5.33 ERA on the degree final yr whereas strolling 15.8% of batters confronted on the degree. Porter Hodge and Caleb Kilian are two different beginning pitching prospects already on Chicago’s 40-man roster, although Hodge has but to pitch above the Double-A degree and Kilian has struggled to a 12.42 ERA throughout six appearances within the majors, leaving every much more prone to open the season within the minors.
