Let me begin out by saying this argument isn’t a referendum on Jaylen Brown’s worth as a participant, no less than in a vacuum. He’s an exquisite and deserving All-NBA expertise, however that’s, sadly, solely a chunk of the image. With the brand new collective bargaining settlement and its prohibitive second tax apron looming, the choice whether or not to pay Jaylen Brown an excellent max, which is able to start round $50 million per yr and finish round $66 million, is way more difficult than “is he adequate to deserve it?” Once more, with out context, the reply is objectively sure. All-NBA second teamers are normally well worth the super-max, however there’s the rub:
The damaging nature of the brand new CBA
Whether or not or not Jaylen is nice sufficient to deserve the supermax isn’t the query. The true query is whether or not the Celtics giving the supermax to Jaylen is in the perfect curiosity of the franchise given the financial realities of the state of affairs, which brings us again to the brand new CBA.
The brand new CBA has created a punitive second luxurious tax apron that comes with huge penalties for groups that exceed it. The brand new line will probably be $17.5 million over the preliminary luxurious tax line (the primary apron is roughly $6 million or so over the tax line). The Celtics are $24 million over the present tax line, and that’s with Jaylen Brown on his under market deal (he has 1 yr left). In different phrases, if the second apron existed right this moment, the Celtics can be topic to those penalties.
With each Jays on a supermax, these two alone will occupy roughly 70% of the wage cap. The room will get eaten up very, in a short time after that. With a number of gamers locked up between $22 and $11 million,* Suffice to say, it’s a foregone conclusion that the Celtics will exceed the second tax apron in the event that they stick with it their present trajectory.
Why is the second line so punitive? Listed here are the penalties for exceeding it, which primarily kick in for the primary yr of Jaylen’s supermax within the 2024-25 season:
The Celtics can’t take again extra wage than they ship out in a commerce (beforehand you could possibly take again 125% of the wage you have been sending out). This severely limits the flexibility to improve the roster through commerce. You primarily have to seek out the proper commerce associate, or one that’s under the second apron and prepared to tackle wage. Getting one other workforce to tackle wage normally prices property.
They are going to lose the taxpayer mid-level exception. This removes the one mechanism for the Celtics to signal a job participant in free company and so they can solely use minimal contracts to fill out the roster in free company.
They can not signal buy-out guys trying to ring chase (as long as their earlier contract is greater than the minimal, which it could be in mainly each state of affairs).
The Celtics wouldn’t be capable to commerce their first-round decide seven years out (can be the 2030 decide if this went into impact right this moment). This looks like a minor hurdle, however this mixed with the wage matching restrictions actually reduces their flexibility within the commerce market (particularly because the 2026 decide is already topic to a swap).
If the Celtics exceed the second apron in two of 4 years, their first-rounder seven years out is moved to the top of the primary spherical, no matter file. This creates the chance the place the Celtics spend now and pay for it dearly later if Tatum have been to go away. It creates huge danger relating to an necessary future asset.
There’s one constructive, the posh tax bands will enhance, which suggests they’ll spend extra earlier than they enter a better degree of the tax.
So, what does all of this add as much as? Giving Jaylen the supermax will severely restrict what the Celtics can put across the Jays. The $60 million luxurious tax invoice this season was already a file for the Celtics franchise. That invoice will stand to extend to an exorbitant quantity if the Celtics merely retain their present core with out including to it. More likely, the Celtics will probably be trying to shed important wage as a way to retain the Jays with out greater than doubling their present tax invoice. That can imply shedding key function gamers on the extent of Derrick White, Grant Williams, and Malcolm Brogdon. And if the Celtics stay above that second apron even after they lose key guys? Nicely, then they don’t have any mechanism to exchange them, even with lesser variations, as a result of they’re so restricted in free company and the commerce market by the brand new CBA.
I do know. It’s not my cash — why do I care? I don’t in a vacuum, however the actuality is that Celtics possession merely is not going to pay double and triple their present tax invoice. It’s not viable short-term and never sustainable long-term. In the event that they resolve to take action and are prepared to pay file quantities of tax, then please throw this complete factor out and let’s fake I didn’t write it, however I’m not banking on it.
It’s not about whether or not you suppose holding Jaylen and this complete core intact is sensible. It virtually actually does. It’s about whether or not holding Jaylen on the expense of the core is sensible. Is it worthwhile to try to compete with a roster that options two All-NBA wings, two or three good function gamers, and primarily nothing else? I’d posit that it doesn’t.
As CelticsBlog’s personal Keith Smith succinctly defined: “The brand new CBA is designed to interrupt up groups like Boston and the place they’re headed salary-wise. It’s what it’s.”
Why commerce him now, and what for?
The first causes for buying and selling Jaylen now are two-fold: (1) he’s coming off his greatest season ever, so his worth as a participant is extraordinarily excessive; and (2) buying and selling Jaylen is partly a method to regulate the wage invoice and buying and selling him at his present wage quantity means you match wage at that worth (roughly between $28 and $32 million relying on what league yr he’s traded in). Ready till he’s paid the supermax defeats quite a lot of the explanation for buying and selling him. Merely put, if buying and selling Jaylen is within the playing cards, this offseason is the one time that it is sensible.
A fast apart: no different workforce may give Jaylen the supermax, and he can’t be traded for a yr after he indicators his supermax extension this offseason (one more reason that the commerce will come this offseason, if it does). After I talk about Jaylen trades under, it is going to be with the understanding that there’s a wink-wink deal between Jaylen and the workforce he’s being traded to that he’ll get a traditional max contract after the commerce.
With that housekeeping out of the best way, we’re left with the last word query: what are you able to get that even makes buying and selling Jaylen value it? When evaluating Jaylen trades, listed below are the components I’ll be weighing:
As a result of that is partly a price financial savings train, I would like the important thing participant(s) in any deal to be locked up past subsequent yr at an affordable quantity, or it’s extraordinarily seemingly the participant would re-sign at a quantity that makes holding the complementary items on the roster attainable.
I would like them to offer issues Jaylen doesn’t. It doesn’t make any sense to commerce Jaylen for a worse model of himself. I’m searching for gamers that do no less than certainly one of two issues on offense, ideally each: shoot 3s at an elite degree (standstill and on the transfer) and/or elite degree ballhandling/playmaking.
I’m additionally taking pictures for defensive upgrades, which needs to be doable since Jaylen’s protection comes and goes. In different phrases, I would like the brand new gamers to be much less redundant skill-set clever with Jayson Tatum.
I would like good function gamers along with a participant that fills 80-90% of Jaylen’s offense. Ideally, a type of function gamers is a middle.
With out additional ado, the trades.
Commerce 1**: Tyus Jones, Luke Kennard, Xavier Tillman, and Desmond Bane for Jaylen Brown
Bane provides you elite taking pictures and is a greater workforce defender whereas offering a good portion of Jaylen’s offensive manufacturing. Jones and Tillman are very strong bench gamers that you would be able to preserve round for affordable contracts (each solely have one yr left). Kennard is generally cap filler, however he’s an okay bench wing and among the best three-point shooters over the previous couple of years.
The draw back with this deal is that Bane solely has another yr on his rookie deal. That’s okay although as a result of the rookie max extension can be considerably lower than Jaylen’s supermax (round $20 million by my tough estimate). As soon as Bane will get costly, Kennard could be dumped for wage financial savings with little or no ache.
Commerce 2: Bogdan Bogdanovic and Dejounte Murray for Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard
Once more, a draw back right here is that Dejounte Murray shouldn’t be locked up, and for those who can’t get an inkling as to what he thinks his worth is, that might tank your entire commerce. If he’s searching for one thing across the $30 million a yr AAV vary, then this makes some sense. That might offer you Bogdan Bogdanovic and Murray locked up long-term round $50 million. It may cost you somebody like Brogdon in a wage financial savings transfer down the road, however Bogie and Murray offer you much more ballhandling, and each are regular palms that may generate first rate photographs late in video games. Bogie can be an elite shooter from distance. Murray and Good can be an insanely aggressive defensive duo.
Commerce 3: Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton for Jaylen Brown and a 1st
Mikal Bridges can be the dream. There’s a world the place he’s a extra invaluable participant than Jaylen Brown subsequent season. It very properly could not occur, however he’s catching up offensively and he’s fairly simply among the best defensive wings within the league. He’s a higher-level shooter than Jaylen, however clearly shouldn’t be the shot creator in isolation that JB is (few are). He’s additionally locked up on an absurdly good contract, simply within the mid-20 hundreds of thousands for the subsequent 4 years. Claxton is a superb huge whose worth I’m most likely underrating with this commerce (that’s why I threw the first in, however value-wise, I believe you could possibly argue for eradicating it). Regardless, he’s a poor man’s Rob Williams that may simply begin when Rob misses video games. He’ll should be re-signed, however assuming that may get achieved for mid-teens, this commerce accomplishes the whole lot I’m searching for in a Brown deal.
So, there you could have it. From an emotional standpoint, I’d hate to see Jaylen go, and it’s a disgrace that because the Celtics start to hit the Jays’ primes, this new damaging CBA comes into place. Simply to be clear, I don’t wish to commerce Jaylen Brown. I’d like for him to remain and the Jays to win half a dozen championships collectively. Sadly, that doesn’t change the monetary actuality of the state of affairs the Celtics are in. It needs to be an easy resolution to re-sign a participant like Jaylen Brown long-term, nevertheless it’s not. Brad Stevens has some unattainable selections to make this offseason. I don’t envy him.
*All cap and wage figures from spotrac.com
**All commerce photographs from fanspo.com
