The Bryan Reynolds Conundrum | FanGraphs Baseball

Regardless of three seasons till he hits free company, the Pirates discover themselves at a crossroads with Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh transport out veterans as they method profitable paydays is a 30-year-old story, and because the workforce’s younger(ish) star with probably the most service time, it’s no shock that Reynolds can be the topic of fixed, swirling rumors. He and the Pirates talked about an extension, however nothing got here of it; looking for slightly extra readability, the 2021 All-Star requested a commerce. Fortunately, not like the Gerrit Cole scenario, there hasn’t been a decisive break between participant and group, and Reynolds remains to be open to discussing an extension. However what sort of extension is lifelike for Reynolds, and can the Pirates be capable to discipline a contender whereas they’ve him?

Per The Athletic, the Pirates and Reynolds had been about $50 million aside of their extension talks. Provided that this $50 million isn’t, say, the distinction between $300 and $350 million, it’s a notable separation. Pittsburgh’s supply was six years and $75 million, masking a number of years of free company; that will be the biggest contract in workforce historical past, however that principally displays the ultra-thrifty method of the Bucs, not some surfeit of munificence on their half. In comparison with the eight-year, $70 million contract that Ke’Bryan Hayes signed, it appears downright miserly, given how distant Hayes was even from arbitration on the time.

Reynolds had a notable dropoff in play from 2021 to ’22, going from .302/.390/.522, 6.1 WAR to .262/.345/.461, 2.9 WAR, however a big chunk of that dropoff was to be anticipated given the sample of what occurs to gamers after career-best seasons. And in any case, there was by no means an opportunity the Pirates had been really going to supply him a contract in step with the notion that he was a six-win participant, as a result of then you definitely’re stepping into Juan Soto territory. However as a three- or four-win participant with a number of years of arbitration remaining, it’s shut sufficient for a deal to be believable.

So let’s run the numbers. The present contract, a two-year deal to keep away from arbitration, already covers the 2023 season, so we’ll focus the projection as an extension previous this season.

With built-in reductions for the 2 remaining seasons of arbitration, ZiPS suggests a six-year, $95 million contract for Reynolds. That’s lower than many individuals would possibly suppose a participant of his price would possibly get, however he has misfortune of poor timing relating to baseball’s wage construction. Reynolds is a good participant, however he’s unlikely to be a star by the point he hits free company, and his first season with a brand new workforce can be at age 31. Being 31 didn’t stop Aaron Choose from getting a monster contract, however he’s additionally coming off a season wherein he was price effectively greater than double the worth of a typical Reynolds season. Whereas it’s disappointing given Pittsburgh’s historical past with its greatest gamers, one can see the chilly exhausting logic in all of it; his arbitration years already cowl all of the projected three-WAR seasons remaining his profession, so why pay free company values for a sub-three WAR participant in his decline years?

Making Reynolds three years youthful highlights simply how a lot cash this will likely value him:

Holding the extension at six years, ZiPS needs to provide this theoretical model of Reynolds $159 million, even together with these assumed decrease greenback figures as a result of arbitration salaries.

Going again to the unique projection, there are causes to argue Reynolds is extra invaluable than that $95 million contract that ZiPS would fortunately signal. Protection in ZiPS is basically OAA-based today (the place obtainable), nevertheless it nonetheless blends in a dose of DRS and UZR (this mannequin predicts OAA higher than OAA alone). There’s important disagreement amongst defensive measures relating to Reynolds in middle discipline: OAA pegs him at +4 for his profession, however he’s a destructive by UZR (-7) and DRS (a relatively dismal -16). If we use solely OAA within the projections, it provides one other $25 million to the projection, getting Reynolds to $120 million. That occurs to be, in response to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic, proper about what the Reynolds camp hoped to get.

“I’ve been fairly open these previous few years that my No. 1 (aim) can be to signal an extension,” Reynolds mentioned. “I would like that to be a good deal for either side. Not a loopy player-(pleasant deal), not a loopy team-(pleasant) deal.”

Based on a supply near the scenario, the Pirates pushed to increase Reynolds close to the top of the 2022 season with a proposal of $75 million over six years. The counter-offer from Reynolds’ camp was round $120 million.

I don’t suppose the Pirates are going to return near $120 million for a pair causes. One, we’re speaking a virtually 75% enhance over the biggest contract the workforce has ever signed. And with many of the good years already beneath contract, there’s simply not so much to push the Pirates into extending Reynolds besides at extraordinarily team-friendly phrases. Whereas $120 million isn’t clearly unreasonable for a workforce, convincing the Pirates of that may be a powerful hill to climb, and the very fact stays that it’s unlikely they’re even a contender for 3 years.

To get a tough thought of Pittsburgh’s trajectory, I simulated the 2024 and ’25 seasons utilizing solely gamers beneath contract or management for his or her groups. ZiPS tasks the Pirates at 68 wins and a 1.3% likelihood of creating the playoffs in 2022. Basic uncertainty and the workforce’s prospects solely enhance these projections to 72 wins and 4.5% in 2024 and 76 wins and eight.1% in ’25. No, these years aren’t written in stone, however the path they’re on shouldn’t be a promising one; it’s unlikely that the workforce goes to bridge the hole between these projections and the Cardinals/Brewers/Cubs in free company.

The connection between the workforce and the followers in Pittsburgh has damaged all the way down to the extent that I’m unsure retaining Reynolds even preserves curiosity within the workforce. The followers is probably not within the room the place it occurs, however they undoubtedly understand how the sausage is made, and signing Reynolds even to the extension his camp is requesting wouldn’t be adequate to erase 30 years of unhealthy emotions. From the Pirates’ perspective, I feel an eventual commerce is what really occurs, regardless of the indicators that Reynolds is open to negotiation. And there are quite a lot of groups that might use him. Trying solely at contenders, ZiPS estimates that he would enhance the middle discipline scenario of a lot of them by not less than a win: the Phillies, Rangers, Astros, Purple Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers, to call a number of. The one middle fielder with a greater projection than Reynolds who’s a free agent within the close to future is Harrison Bader, and I can’t think about the Yankees procuring him until one thing goes terribly incorrect this season for the Bombers. In different phrases, there are quite a lot of believable properties for Reynolds’ companies.

Determination day on Reynolds is coming shortly, and as with previous stars, I anticipate the Pirates to decide on to ship him out of city. To alter this storyline will, sadly, require a drastic change in the best way the workforce thinks, and new possession, too. Daybreak stays a great distance off for the Metal Metropolis.