One other NFL season is upon us, and with it comes a uncommon probability at historical past. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs will attempt to turn into the primary franchise to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls. They’re the primary franchise to even try the feat for the reason that New England Patriots in 2005.
Kansas Metropolis’s fashionable dominance is summed up properly within the betting odds. At +500, the Chiefs enter the 2024 marketing campaign as Tremendous Bowl favorites for the fifth time prior to now six seasons, the lone exception being 2022 — a season by which they finally received the Tremendous Bowl. Kansas Metropolis additionally has a win whole of 11.5 at ESPN BET, marking the Chiefs’ sixth straight season with a preseason double-digit win whole, tied for the fourth-longest streak of all time, per ESPN Stats & Data.
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In fact, the Chiefs will not be the one crew vying for the Lombardi Trophy. Ten different groups present odds of 20-1 or shorter to win Tremendous Bowl LIX, one among which is the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. The Jets will probably be trying to break the league’s longest energetic playoff drought (since 2010) and are -155 favorites to take action.
As in most most years, groups, bettors and bookmakers alike may even should cope with new rule adjustments, essentially the most outstanding of which this season is an overhaul to kickoffs that would have implications on win totals, amongst different wagers.
“At first, or no less than Week 1, we’re it and seeing what is going on to occur from there,” BetMGM buying and selling supervisor Christian Cipollini advised ESPN. “We’ll attempt to react closely to it versus moving into and making a change forward of time, simply because it is nonetheless so unknown.”
Listed below are a number of the most notable betting storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season.
Affect of latest kickoff guidelines
Touchbacks decreased dramatically within the preseason, the primary time NFL groups carried out the brand new kickoff guidelines, and the common beginning area place improved by greater than 3 yards. Nevertheless, scoring was decrease than the betting market anticipated this preseason, with 31 out of 48 video games going below the entire.
Oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see strategy earlier than making any numbers changes associated to the kickoffs. The over/below totals for Week 1 are consistent with previous years, however bookmakers are watching intently for any angles that develop.
“If there’s a bonus, they will discover it and so they’ll play it, after which the market will regulate,” John Murray, govt director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, stated. “You must at all times be in your toes, in search of that type of factor.”
The brand new guidelines require 10 members of the kickoff crew to line up on the opponents’ 40-yard line. The receiving crew should line up no less than 9 gamers by itself 30-yard line. The spot of the kick (the kicking crew’s 35-yard line) didn’t change. All kicks that land contained in the receiving crew’s 20-yard line and in need of the purpose line (to be known as the “touchdown space”) should be returned. Touchbacks happen if the ball is kicked out of the tip zone or if a participant downs a ball that hit contained in the touchdown space and bounced into the tip zone. In these eventualities, the ball can be positioned on the receiving crew’s 30-yard line or 20-yard line, respectively.
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Oddsmakers doubt the brand new guidelines will affect totals or level spreads for video games, however they are saying some obscure prop bets might be affected, reminiscent of the percentages on the results of a kickoff ending in a touchback. Within the preseason, solely 26.9% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, in accordance with ESPN Stats and Data. Over the previous 5 common seasons, 63% of kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Final season, a file 73% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. The NFL stated it carried out the brand new guidelines to each improve returns and reduce accidents.
Patrick Jay, head of ESPN BET sportsbook, stated the percentages on a kickoff leading to a touchback is a well-liked in-game betting possibility and believes the brand new guidelines will trigger kickoff betting markets to “tackle a brand new life.”
“Through the 2023 season, the percentages for the subsequent kickoff to be a touchback may need traded as quick -3000, with odds hardly ever favoring a receiving crew’s possibilities of initiating a return, “Jay advised ESPN. “From a buying and selling perspective, we’re to see if the brand new guidelines result in extra advantageous area place to begin drives, and, in flip, how that interprets into scoring alternatives in comparison with earlier seasons.”
The typical beginning area place within the preseason was the 29-yard line. Over the previous 5 common seasons, the common beginning area place was the 26-yard line, in accordance with ESPN Stats and Data.
Murray questions whether or not 3 yards of higher area place would have a big affect on the success of drives however is watching to see what occurs, particularly on the over/below factors scored in first and third quarters.
“I suppose it is doable that, when quarters [totals] do go up, we might see folks betting the primary quarters over,” Murray stated. “I do not know that transferring from the 26 [yard line] to the 29 is important sufficient to try this.”
What are the percentages of a Chiefs three-peat?
With two Tremendous Bowl victories in as many seasons, the Chiefs are already in rarefied air and can cross into unprecedented territory if they’ll seize a 3rd consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Out of eight earlier back-to-back Tremendous Bowl champions, none have efficiently accomplished the three-peat (though, the Inexperienced Bay Packers did three-peat as NFL champions two totally different occasions previous to the Tremendous Bowl period).
The Chiefs’ future odds to take action this season are immediately consistent with earlier would-be three-peaters, and so they’re attracting the fervent betting motion to match.
At +500 on ESPN BET, Kansas Metropolis’s odds to win Tremendous Bowl LIX are the identical because the previous two repeat champions coming into their potential three-peat season. The 2005 Patriots have been tied for one of the best odds that preseason with the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles, whereas the 1999 Denver Broncos truly trailed the Minnesota Vikings (+450) in odds.
The earlier three repeat champs — the 1994 Dallas Cowboys (+300), the 1990 San Francisco 49ers (+350) and the 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers (+240) — all confirmed shorter odds than the Chiefs present this yr, and solely the Cowboys have been second on their odds board (behind the 49ers, who have been +200 and finally received the title).
TeamOddsOdds rankKansas Metropolis Chiefs (2024)+5001stNew England Patriots (2005)+500T-1stDenver Broncos (1999)+5002nd (Vikings)Dallas Cowboys (1994)+3002nd (49ers)San Francisco 49ers (1990)+3501stPittsburgh Steelers (1980)+2401stCourtesy of ESPN Stats and Information
However once more, none of those groups have been capable of pull off the three-peat. Nonetheless, that hasn’t stopped bettors from going to the window for Kansas Metropolis.
“It has been largely one-way visitors with the Chiefs by way of betting curiosity as soon as once more,” ESPN BET head of sportsbook Patrick Jay advised ESPN.
The guide has 17% of its Tremendous Bowl futures deal with on the Chiefs, and Patrick Mahomes has 20% of the deal with to win MVP.
The Chiefs are additionally the deal with leaders at BetMGM (18.7%), DraftKings (17%) and FanDuel (19%). Unsurprisingly, they lead the AFC Championship markets at the entire books as properly.
The motion, mixed with the final Tremendous Bowl win, noticed their championship odds fall incrementally from +750 in January to their present place, per ESPN BET.
Except for the longer term legal responsibility, Kansas Metropolis is bound to be a preferred decide week to week because it pursues the elusive third straight Tremendous Bowl.
“The Chiefs, clearly, are going to be a preferred choice, and so they’re extra seemingly than not going to be a preferred choice all through the whole season,” Cipollini stated. “I think about any recreation that they are enjoying in, we’ll be rooting for whoever they’re enjoying towards.”
The place’s the cash going forward of the season?
Even when the Chiefs had received solely final season’s Tremendous Bowl as a substitute of the previous two, the heavy futures motion on them would not be notably stunning. Cipollini stated that the reigning champion tends to take a big portion of cash each time the subsequent season’s future markets go dwell.
From there, the consensus second-most-popular decide to win the Tremendous Bowl has been the Detroit Lions (+1000), who’ve attracted 9% of the bets and 12% of the deal with on ESPN BET. BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel all report related figures to rank Detroit behind solely Kansas Metropolis for essentially the most tickets and cash.
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The Lions are much more widespread within the NFC Championship market, the place they’re taking upward of 30% of the deal with at a lot of the main sportsbooks, with odds round +550. There’s little consensus on who may win the convention from there, with the Chicago Bears, Eagles, Packers, Los Angeles Rams and reigning convention champion 49ers all taking over various ranges of motion throughout {the marketplace}.
It is the second season in a row that public assist has been behind Detroit after Dan Campbell’s squad first confirmed a spark through the 2022 season.
“We had far more legal responsibility on them final season as a result of they opened up at 40-to-1, 30-to-1, no matter they have been. Now at 12-to-1, it is a a lot simpler tablet for the guide to swallow,” Cipollini stated. “Quite a lot of Michigan bettors for us final season have been undoubtedly everywhere in the Lions, and I believe they put their division winner tickets or no matter winnings they’d from final season proper again onto them for this season, as a result of we’re undoubtedly taking quite a lot of motion on them once more.”
On the AFC facet, the Jets have confirmed to be a buzzy decide amongst big-money bettors for convention futures, garnering 24% of deal with (greater than the Chiefs at 16%) with solely 10% of tickets at ESPN BET. FanDuel equally experiences that the Jets have the second-most AFC Championship cash (14%, behind the Chiefs at 27%) however the fourth-most tickets.
That stated, bettors are much less assured that the Rodgers-led squad can win that subsequent recreation to convey dwelling the franchise’s first title since 1968. New York shouldn’t be within the prime 5 for Tremendous Bowl futures at any of the key books by variety of bets and cracks that fifth spot by deal with solely at FanDuel.
NFL participant props
Heading into the ultimate days of summer time, Houston Texans rising famous person C.J. Stroud emerged because the consensus most-popular betting possibility within the NFL MVP futures market. Whereas that is largely nonetheless true — he carries the very best ticket rely at a lot of the main sportsbooks — there are different big-name gamers with notable motion, or lack thereof.
“I really feel prefer it’s type of died down just a little bit, however undoubtedly once we first opened we have been getting quite a lot of Stroud motion,” Cipollini stated.
Conserving with the heightened curiosity on the Lions, Jared Goff has garnered some important motion to win the league’s highest particular person honor at a decently lengthy +2200, per ESPN BET odds. He is tied for third with Jalen Hurts (+1300) in DraftKings’ rankings with 8% of the deal with, and he’s outright third in each bets (9.1%) and cash (9.8%) at BetMGM, the place he goes down because the guide’s greatest legal responsibility due to his longer odds than these of different candidates.
“He is in all probability the worst end result for us proper now,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello advised ESPN.
Two-time MVP Mahomes continues to be writing tickets regardless of being the large favourite at +475 odds. ESPN BET (20%) and BetMGM (12.4%) each report the 28-year-old as their deal with chief for the award.
As for reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, neither the percentages nor the motion have been notably variety to him. The Baltimore Ravens signal-caller comes into the season with +1600 odds at ESPN BET, tied with Brock Purdy for seventh shortest, and has simply the ninth-highest deal with at DraftKings (4%) and Thirteenth-highest at BetMGM (2.8%).
Offensive Rookie of the Yr has additionally confirmed to be a preferred, intriguing market. No. 1 draft decide Caleb Williams (+140) is drawing a lot of the motion, taking essentially the most tickets and cash at ESPN BET, however a number of the different extremely touted first-round quarterbacks are garnering much more, in some instances.
Bo Nix (+1000), specifically, has attracted bettor intrigue since successful the beginning job in Denver, drawing essentially the most bets at FanDuel (17%), in addition to essentially the most tickets (22.1%) and deal with (24.6%) at BetMGM. Second decide Jayden Daniels (+500) can also be lurking close to the highest, recording essentially the most cash at FanDuel (23%).
So far as non-quarterbacks go, third decide Marvin Harrison Jr. is taking motion, as is Malik Nabers, owing to a Giants offseason “Arduous Knocks” bump, per Avello.
In fact, these are simply a few the preferred awards markets amongst a handful, with much more player-focused futures in a number of stat classes. As legalization spreads and extra bettors be part of the festivities, soccer season choices turn into extra widespread from the nation’s sportsbooks.
“We bought a lot stuff up this yr,” Avello stated. “The cash is coming in, and it is unfold out by all of the choices we’ve got up.”
