The Banged-Up Braves Have Slipped in the Wild Card Race

With Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. each out for the season, the Braves haven’t been wherever near full energy for awhile, and the damage bug has continued to chew, with Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies sidelined for prolonged durations as nicely. In a dispiriting sequence involving the rotation, Max Fried returned from the injured record on Sunday (and was roughed up), then Reynaldo López landed on the IL. With so many absences, the cracks are starting to point out. The place the Braves occupied the highest Nationwide League Wild Card spot for a great very long time, they entered Tuesday having fallen right into a three-way tie with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

The not-so-well-kept secret concerning the Braves is that since ending April with a 19-9 document, they’ve gone simply 41-42, and haven’t been greater than a sport over .500 in any calendar month. They went 13-14 in Could, 14-13 in June, and 12-13 in July; to this point, they’re 2-2 in August. Right here’s how they now sit by way of the standings and our Playoff Odds:

Whereas 82.5% odds is a place most groups would kill for — certainly, within the NL solely the Dodgers (99%) and the Phillies (98.5%) are increased — it’s nicely beneath the place the Braves have been for all however a handful of days this season. Right here’s a take a look at their odds relative to the opposite two NL East contenders:

That latest low level is from July 26, once they had misplaced six in a row, together with two to the Mets at Citi Area, to fall to 54-48, with 69.9% odds. They rebounded by going 6-1 in opposition to the Mets, Brewers, and Marlins earlier than shedding their final two video games in opposition to Miami on Saturday and Sunday. Right here’s how their Wild Card odds have converged with these of San Diego, the warmer staff of late (if the colours are onerous to tell apart, observe that the darker line on prime of the best half of the graph is the Braves):

As for his or her rotation, Fried really wasn’t sidelined for lengthy. After throwing a scoreless inning for the NL throughout the All-Star Sport, he reported that he “felt just a little one thing,” as supervisor Brian Snitker later defined, and following an MRI was identified with neuritis, an irritation of the nerve in his forearm (“just a bit irritated sensory nerve, not one of many main muscle-functioning nerves,” stated Fried when he was positioned on the IL). Activated on Sunday after his signs dissipated, he lasted simply 3.1 innings in opposition to the Marlins, strolling a season-high 5 hitters whereas permitting 4 hits and 5 runs, although the final two had been charged to him when Jonah Bride hit a three-run homer off reliever Luke Jackson. The Braves misplaced, 7-0.

Fried didn’t make a rehab begin earlier than coming off the IL and thus had thrown only one inning in 23 days. Primarily based on what he stated afterwards, it doesn’t sound like his dangerous outing indicated a bodily subject. Per The Athletic’s David O’Brien:

“I used to be struggling,” Fried stated. “I wasn’t capable of make the adjustment that you just want to have the ability to hold us within the sport. Clearly 5 walks in 3 1/3, that’s unacceptable. You’re simply placing a whole lot of guys on base, not likely giving us an opportunity. Particularly not getting us within the dugout to attempt to create some momentum. On the market on a sizzling day, type of the very last thing you need.”

On a optimistic observe, Fried stated, “Bodily I really feel nice. Simply out of rhythm.”

López left his July 28 begin in opposition to the Mets after simply three innings as a consequence of forearm tightness. His MRI got here again unfavourable so far as any structural harm was involved, so the Braves hoped he may return to the mound after skipping only one flip, however when he didn’t progress shortly sufficient, the staff positioned him on the IL. They may solely backdate the stint to August 2, making López eligible to return on August 17.

The breather would possibly serve him nicely. Provided that Lopez threw simply 66 innings final yr, his highest complete since throwing 84 again in 2019, the Braves have gone to nice lengths to handle his workload, and the technique paid off along with his first All-Star choice. 9 of López’s 19 begins have been made on six or extra days of relaxation, and solely two on 4 days of relaxation. His 104.2 innings is in need of qualifying for the ERA title, however amongst pitchers with at the very least 100 innings, his 2.06 ERA is the majors’ lowest, and his 3.18 FIP is eighth within the NL. Amongst all NL pitchers, his 2.4 WAR is tied for thirteenth, with Paul Skenes the one pitcher within the prime 15 with fewer innings.

With López out, the Braves have recalled Bryce Elder from Triple-A Gwinnett to affix Fried, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Schwellenbach within the rotation. Elder posted a 3.81 ERA and 4.42 FIP in 174.2 innings for the Braves final yr, however after a second-half fade (5.11 ERA, 4.92 FIP in 68.2 innings), the 25-year-old righty misplaced his spot to López this spring. He’s been optioned to Gwinnett 4 instances (not counting the 2 instances he’s served because the twenty seventh man for a doubleheader), that whereas posting a 5.67 ERA and 4.23 FIP in 46 innings with the massive membership. He hasn’t accomplished an important job of suppressing onerous contact, and lefties have managed a .407 wOBA in opposition to him.

The Braves do produce other alternate options, together with 21-year-old righty AJ Smith-Shawver, who made 5 begins for the staff final yr and one this yr, with uneven outcomes (3.64 ERA and 6.11 FIP in 29.2 IP). In the meantime, Huascar Ynoa, a 24-year-old righty who made a complete of 24 begins and 7 reduction appearances for the Braves from 2019–22 earlier than present process Tommy John surgical procedure in September ’22, has handled elbow irritation and a stress response this season, however he’s now rehabbing at Gwinnett, having most just lately thrown 61 pitches on Saturday. Barring López’s absence or Fried’s rust turning into longer-term points, the Braves in all probability have sufficient rotation depth to make it the remainder of the best way, although it did price as a shock that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos didn’t land a starter forward of the July 30 commerce deadline. The starters collectively personal the league’s third-best ERA (3.79) and greatest FIP (3.62), with Sale main all NL qualifiers in each classes (2.71 ERA, 2.32 FIP) in addition to WAR (4.1).

The true concern is the offense, which ranks eleventh within the NL in scoring (4.21 runs per sport) and is tied for eighth in wRC+ (97), and which has been even worse in each respects because the begin of Could, rating 14th in scoring (3.80 runs per sport) and twelfth in wRC+ (90) on a .228/.290/.396 slash line. Simply 4 Braves have hit for a 100 wRC+ or higher total, and even that overstates their impression, as one is Acuña, who tore the ACL of his left knee on Could 26 and shortly underwent season-ending surgical procedure, and one other is Travis d’Arnaud, who’s began 56 of the staff’s 111 video games at catcher and ranks ninth in plate appearances (236) whereas hitting a sturdy .264/.326/.486 (124 wRC+). The 2 mainstays producing at a better-than-average clip are Marcell Ozuna, who’s taken all 469 of the staff’s plate appearances at designated hitter this season, and Austin Riley, their common third baseman. Ozuna has hit .300/.373/.580 (162 wRC+) whereas rating second within the NL in slugging proportion, wRC+ (162) and homers (32), and among the many prime 5 within the different two slash stats. Riley has hit .261/.326/.457, however his 15 homers and 117 wRC+ to this point counsel he’ll wind up nicely in need of the 36 homers and 135 wRC+ he averaged from 2021–23.

The Braves reacquired a 3rd above-average hitter on the commerce deadline in Jorge Soler, who arrived in the identical four-player take care of the Giants that introduced Jackson again to Atlanta; each had been key contributors to the Braves’ 2021 championship. Soler hit .240/.330/.419 (115 wRC+) with 12 homers for the Giants however is simply 2-for-20 since returning, albeit with a 94.9 mph common exit velocity and a 60% hard-hit price. Even assuming his bat comes round, he’s a legal responsibility in proper area, the place he totaled -16 DRS, -15 FRV, and -10 UZR in slightly below 1,000 innings in 2021 and ’23 (he break up 2022 between left area and DH).

Certainly, Soler is taking part in proper as a result of the outfield has been in disarray as a result of losses of Acuña and Harris, who suffered a Grade II left hamstring pressure on June 14 and has since been transferred to the 60-day IL. The left area platoon of Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall, which earned a spot on my Substitute Stage Killers record, was already managing simply an 83 wRC+ previous to the lack of Harris, and Kelenic has since moved to cowl middle. Although he’s elevating the ball with extra consistency this yr than final, he’s gotten much less selective on the plate and is hitting simply .233/.288./400 total, along with his 90 wRC+ an 18-point drop from final yr’s modest breakout. Duvall moved over to do many of the work in proper between Acuña’s damage and the addition of Soler. General, he’s raked in opposition to lefties (140 wRC+ in 111 PA), however has been overexposed in opposition to and smothered by righties, hitting simply .149/.185/.232 (13 wRC+) in 189 PA in opposition to them. As if the script wanted yet one more callback to 2021 in addition to Duvall and Soler in an Acuña-less outfield, Eddie Rosario has coated left area since being picked up in early July after the Nationals launched him. Whether or not in Washington or Atlanta, he hasn’t hit a lick; in truth, his 46 wRC+ (.177/.217/.320) is lifeless final amongst all batters with at the very least 300 PA, with Duvall’s 60 (.185/.247/.330) second-to-last.

The hope is that Harris, who himself has hit a disappointing .250/.295/.358 (81 wRC+), will return when eligible on August 14, a couple of month forward of Albies, who fractured his left wrist in a collision with a sliding Michael Siani on July 21. After briefly making an attempt to boost the lineup with prospect Nacho Alvarez Jr., who went simply 3-for-30 with 10 strikeouts, Anthopoulos picked up Whit Merrifield, who had been launched by the Phillies throughout the All-Star break, and with good trigger, as he’d hit simply .199/.277/.295 (64 wRC+) in part-time obligation.

The Braves landed on my Substitute Stage Killers lists at two different spots, shortstop and first base. The sunshine-hitting Orlando Arcia revived his profession in a utility function with the Braves in 2022, then took over shortstop as soon as Dansby Swanson left and made the NL All-Star staff on the energy of a powerful first half in ’23. After posting modest numbers (99 wRC+, 2.3 WAR), he’s slipped to a 75 wRC+ (.226/.271/.367) with 0.8 WAR. The true shock has been the collapse of Matt Olson, whose main league-leading 54 homers helped energy him to a fourth-place displaying in NL MVP voting final yr. Not content material simply to play all 162 video games as he’s accomplished in every of the previous two seasons, Olson has performed each inning this season at first base, and one can’t assist however wonder if that’s taken a toll. He’s hit simply 18 homers whereas batting .226/.306/.413; his 61-point drop in wRC+ is the majors’ largest amongst batters with 250 PA in each 2023 and ’24, and he’s bought firm from among the aforementioned outfielders:

Olson’s common exit velocity has dropped by almost two full ticks, and his barrel price has dropped by 5.4 proportion factors (from 16.4% to 11%); throughout the similar set of gamers above, that’s the fourth-largest drop, with Soler eleventh (-4.5 factors, from 15% to 10.5%). Precisely what’s inflicting this prolonged stoop is unclear, nevertheless it’s onerous to check this staff going far with out him coming round. By no means have they missed Freddie Freeman extra.

The Braves gained the 2021 World Collection as a result of they overcame important accidents and made some key pickups alongside the best way. Even with lots of the similar elements, proper now it’s onerous to be assured that the recipe will work once more.