The 2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Introduction & First Base

In a race for a playoff spot, each edge issues. But all too typically, for causes that reach past a participant’s statistics, managers and common managers fail to make the strikes that might enhance their groups, permitting mediocre manufacturing to fester on the threat of smothering a membership’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 guide, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historic All-Star squad of ignominy, figuring out gamers at every place whose performances had dragged their groups down in tight races: the Substitute-Stage Killers. I’ve revisited the idea quite a few occasions at a number of shops and have tailored it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

In terms of defining alternative stage play, we needn’t hew too intently to exactitude. Any crew that’s gotten lower than 0.6 WAR from a place so far — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is taken into account truthful sport. Generally, acceptable and even above-average protection (which can rely on which metric one makes use of) coupled with whole ineptitude on offense is sufficient to flag a crew. Generally a membership could also be effectively forward of alternative stage however has misplaced a key contributor to harm; typically the reverse is true, however the crew hasn’t but climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Courtroom Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I do know alternative stage after I see it.

For this collection, I’ll go across the diamond, stating essentially the most egregious examples of potential Killers at every place amongst contenders, which I’ll outline as groups which can be above .500 or have Playoff Odds of a minimum of 9.5%. That definition covers 20 groups, down from 22 final yr. I’ll embrace the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and whereas I’ll point out potential commerce targets, I’m much less targeted on these groups’ options than I’m the issues, as a result of hey, human nature.

This primary installment will cowl first basemen. All statistics inside this piece are by July 11 except in any other case famous.

Astros

After a dreadful 2023 season, José Abreu confirmed some life within the postseason, however when he dug himself one other deep gap early this yr, the 37-year-old former MVP swallowed his satisfaction and accepted an non-obligatory minor league task on Might 1. A month later he returned, however the Astros gave him simply 13 video games earlier than chopping him unfastened with a cringeworthy .124/.167/.195 (1 wRC+) line and -1.5 WAR. Lefty-swinging Jon Singleton has served because the common in Abreu’s absence, however his .241/.335/.358 (102 wRC+) isn’t going to chop it if the Astros are to capitalize on their turnaround. They began the yr simply 12-24, and as of June 18 had been nonetheless simply 33-40, 10 video games out of first within the AL West. Since then, they’ve gone 16-4, closing to inside two video games of the first-place Mariners; their Playoff Odds have rocketed from 29.3% to 59.5% in that span.

Joey Loperfido, a 45-FV prospect who ranked third on the Astros’ Prime Prospects record as a middle fielder, might be the main in-house different. Loperfido, a 25-year-old lefty batter, performed first base recurrently as a freshman at Duke in 2018 and has saved the place within the combine throughout his time within the minors, notching 63 video games there. He’s bounced up and down between Triple-A and the majors since April 30, hitting .284/.337/.444 (121 wRC+) in 90 plate appearances on the huge league stage. He was anticipated to chip in at first base, however has performed simply three innings there thus far; currently he’s been sharing proper area duties within the absence of Kyle Tucker. When Tucker returns (hopefully simply after the All-Star break), Loperfido might get an actual take a look at first.

Past that, the Marlins’ Josh Bell is seemingly all the time out there right now of yr, however he’d need to be thought-about a fallback. In keeping with The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, Astros common supervisor Dana Brown is understood to have mentioned Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Andrew Vaughn, and Christian Walker with their respective groups; the three in addition to Vaughn in all probability high the want lists of each crew right here, however it’s not clear but whether or not their groups are dedicated to promoting.

Brewers

Few groups are as dedicated to a bit because the Brewers are to inserting first basemen on the annual Killers lists; that is their fifth straight season of doing so. With Rowdy Tellez having taken his fringe performances to Pittsburgh (the place the Pirates’ 0.7 WAR barely saved them off this record), righty Rhys Hoskins (.218/.314/.419/, 107 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) and lefty Jake Bauers (.220/.321/.396, 104 wRC+, 0.4 WAR) have finished a lot of the harm right here. Bauers, who additionally performs the outfield corners, has managed only a 77 wRC+ in his time at first, which included common play when a proper hamstring harm sidelined Hoskins within the second half of Might; since returning, Hoskins hasn’t been significantly better (.200/.282/.357, 79 wRC+).

Given their five-game lead within the NL Central and their ongoing pitching wants even after buying and selling for Aaron Civale, I’m guessing the Brewers will in all probability watch for Hoskins — who missed final yr with a torn left ACL however who can be the proprietor of a profession 124 wRC+, in addition to an $18 million participant possibility for subsequent season — to rebound. They might additionally give 23-year-old Tyler Black, a lefty-swinging 40-FV prospect who positioned tenth on their Prime Prospects record this spring, an extended look; he’s hit .235/.316/.294 (78 wRC+) in 38 PA with the Brewers and .286/.389/.481 (126 wRC+) in 280 PA at Triple-A Nashville.

Yankees

On the heels of a season wrecked by post-concussion signs, Anthony Rizzo was hitting simply .223/.289/.341 (82 wRC+) earlier than fracturing the radial neck of his proper arm on June 16. The 34-year-old first baseman prevented surgical procedure however landed on the 60-day injured record, which means he gained’t be eligible to return till August 16.

Since Rizzo went down, 25-year-old lefty-swinging Ben Rice has finished a very good job filling in, batting .254/.333/.522 (138 wRC+) with 5 homers in 78 PA. A transformed catcher whose incapability to cease the working sport dimmed his future behind the plate, he’s taken to his new place defensively as effectively. If he might maintain what he’s doing, drawback solved, but when he can’t, the Yankees — who’re in a 6-17 tailspin and aren’t getting a 100 wRC+ from any regulars in addition to Aaron Decide, Juan Soto, and the injured Giancarlo Stanton, can’t afford to threat Rizzo choosing up the place he left off given his .235/.312/.363 in 712 PA over the previous two seasons. An outfielder-first baseman kind such because the Giants’ LaMonte Wade Jr. (who has one other yr of membership management) or the Diamondbacks’ Joc Pederson (a pending free agent) could be a perfect addition, if their respective groups slip additional within the standings, however with wants elsewhere within the infield and on the pitching workers, there’s no assure such a transfer is a precedence for GM Brian Cashman.

Mariners

Incumbent Ty France has produced diminishing returns in every of the previous three seasons, together with his wRC+ and WAR declining from the earlier yr. To date he’s hitting .232/.322/.363 (103 wRC+) with 0.1 WAR. Whereas he’s hitting the ball more durable than final yr, he’s pulling it much less typically, and so his xwOBA has dropped from .342 to .320. He’s being eaten alive by four-seam fastballs, hitting .200 and slugging .263 whereas whiffing on 22.1% of his swings towards them, and his general strikeout charge has spiked from 17.6% to 24.5%. His protection (-4 DRS, -3 FRV, -0.9 UZR) is nothing to write down residence about both.

When France missed time in June resulting from a hairline fracture in his proper heel, the crew gave 23-year-old prospect Tyler Locklear a short look. A 2022 second-round decide, the righty-swinging Locklear positioned fifteenth on the crew’s Prime Prospects record as a 40-FV score; he’s obtained 65-grade uncooked energy however none of his different instruments are above common. He went 6-for-30 with one stroll and 12 strikeouts earlier than being returned to Triple-A Tacoma, the place he’s hit .284/.386/.516 (121 wRC+) after being promoted from Double-A Arkansas. Luke Raley, who’s performed 11 video games at first this yr and did so 35 occasions for the Rays final yr, affords one other different, however shifting him to first full-time would require the Mariners to give you an impression bat for an outfield nook. A method or one other, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto in all probability must take an enormous swing to prop up an offense that ranks thirteenth within the AL in scoring (3.91 runs per sport) and eleventh in wRC+ (95).

Pink Sox

Regardless of a gradual begin, Triston Casas completed his 2023 rookie marketing campaign with a 129 wRC+, good for seventh within the AL. He roughly matched that over this season’s first 22 video games, hitting .244/.344/.513 (130 wRC+) with six homers in 90 PA, however he fractured a rib and broken muscle and cartilage as effectively whereas taking a mighty reduce in an April 20 sport. In his absence, the Pink Sox have relied totally on Dominic Smith, with predictably dismal outcomes; after hitting for a 90 wRC+ with -0.1 WAR in 586 PA final yr for the Nationals, Smith has hit .221/.313/.343 (84 wRC+) with -0.3 WAR in 195 PA this season.

Casas, who’s made use of his time on the shelf by roughly auditioning for a future job in broadcasting, was scheduled to start hitting off a tee this week, with an eye fixed towards starting a rehab stint after the All-Star break. Barring a setback, he might return someplace on both facet of the July 30 commerce deadline. That will clear up the issue neatly, however provided that the crew has netted -0.1 WAR and a 98 wRC+ from its designated hitters, it’d make sense to discover a DH possibility able to offering some insurance coverage at first.

Cardinals

Paul Goldschmidt fell off considerably from his 2022 NL MVP-winning marketing campaign to ’23, although contemplating he nonetheless put collectively a decent season for a 35-year-old first baseman, posting a 122 wRC+ with 3.4 WAR, it was robust to anticipate that he would slide this far in ’24. By means of the Cardinals’ first 40 video games — these by Might 12 — he hit simply .197/.280/.279 (64 wRC+), and alongside the way in which headlined my roundup of stars who completed April in alternative stage territory. He has but to finish a full month with a wRC+ above 96, and whereas he’s at 111 in July, it’s by way of a lopsided .262/.279/.476 slash line. General he’s hitting .229/.292/.374 (91 wRC+) with 0.2 WAR. His swing and chase charges (28% and 46.4%, respectively) are his highest since 2019, his first yr in St. Louis — basic indicators of a batter urgent — and his stroll and strikeout charges (7.7% and 28.3%) are profession worsts; the latter represents almost a five-point soar from final season. When he does make contact, his barrel charge is at a career-low 9.2%.

It’s very doable time is catching as much as a participant who, for all of his struggles this season, did lately go the JAWS customary for first basemen (53.5, due to 0.6 bWAR). Goldschmidt is within the stroll yr of his five-year, $130 million deal, and if the Cardinals wished to, they might chew the bullet and pursue an improve. Provided that they’re 48-44 and working second within the NL Wild Card race, and that he’s type of trending upward, that does appear unlikely except they get significantly artistic — buying, say, Walker whereas buying and selling Goldschmidt to a determined AL crew (the Mariners?). Their solely inner possibility, 38-year-old Matt Carpenter, is hitting simply .242/.318/.337 (92 wRC+) himself.

Braves

Since being traded to the Braves and signed to an eight-year, $168 million contract in March 2022, Matt Olson has performed all 416 Braves video games. This yr, he’s performed each inning of each sport, however the effort could also be catching as much as him. After main the NL with 54 residence runs, 139 RBI, and a .604 slugging proportion final yr whereas posting a 160 wRC+, he’s slipped to 13 homers, a .234/.313/.415 (103 wRC+) line, and 0.4 WAR. His 9.1% stroll charge is a profession low, his 26.9% strikeout charge is his highest since 2020, and his high quality of contact is down. Oddly, after punishing righties for a 176 wRC+ final yr, the lefty-swinging Olson has slipped to 88 towards them this season, together with his slugging in such matchups falling from .645 to .369; his common exit velocity towards four-seamers from righties is down by almost 4 mph, and towards breaking balls from them by almost six mph. Simply spitballing right here, however possibly the man might use a breather? He has to have some PTO banked.