The 10/90 Scale: Francisco Alvarez

Picture credit score: © Invoice Streicher – USA TODAY Sports activities

Good day there, everybody! Welcome to a different 12 months of The ten/90 Scale, a pre-season column the place we have a look at among the best-case and worst-case eventualities for a selected participant at a given place. For the final couple of years, the inimitable Darius Austin took this on for the BP Fantasy Workforce, however for 2024, you’re caught with me.

In The ten/90 Scale, we’ll use Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections to determine a few potential outcomes for every participant I talk about. The most typical projection numbers you’ll see are the Fiftieth-percentile projections, the center of the street. However for this column’s functions, we’ll have a look at the Ninetieth percentile (a very nice final result) in addition to a tenth percentile (scorching rubbish final result) to see the place the vary of potentialities lands.

Are you curious about exploring PECOTA a bit deeper? I’d advocate changing into a subscriber, should you aren’t already. Our Premium subscribers not solely get this high-quality fantasy content material, but additionally entry to the downloadable PECOTA percentiles spreadsheet. Search for anybody you need! Impress your pals and family members! Predict the longer term with lethal accuracy!

At any charge, my job right here is to have a look at participant who could have a bit extra variance than most, share these potential PECOTA-based outcomes, and talk about the place the fantasy potential lies. Since we kick issues off right here at BP with our week of catchers, and since I’ve bought a bit extra historical past with New York’s Senior Circuit franchise, I believe in the present day’s alternative is exceptionally applicable. Behold, Francisco Alvarez, the most effective younger catchers in MLB, with a particular emphasis on younger. Different scorching younger backstops like Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, or Yainer Diaz all are coming into age-25 seasons or older, however Alvarez might be heading into his age-22 season for 2024.

After all, with age comes maturity … and sometimes reliability. Whereas Alvarez is more likely to see the lion’s share of taking part in time in Queens this 12 months, he’s unproven and greater than a bit unstable. His 2023 season was gangbusters to begin, however his manufacturing fell off significantly because the Mets’ catastrophe season wore on. With Omar Narvaez (for now) within the fold, he received’t be required to hold the entire catching load coming into 2024, however he might be requested to re-establish himself because the group’s catcher of the longer term. No strain! However let’s see what that would appear like.

The Ninetieth Percentile

462 PA  /  63 R  /  26 HR  /  72 RBI  /  1 SB  /  .251 AVG  /  4.6 WARP

That is close to the higher bounds of PECOTA’s projection on Alvarez for 2024. Practically a five-win participant, this model of Alvarez is an all-round star, an All-Star, if you’ll. His calling card has all the time been top-end energy, and that will get displayed right here with 26 dingers in 462 PA. The Mets’ query mark of a lineup in all probability nonetheless limits his R + RBI ceiling, and his lack of velocity and call potential makes 1 SB and a .251 batting common good outcomes on this perfect-world situation. His WARP skews even larger off the energy of an excellent defensive (learn: pitch framing) repute that improves a bit from his 2023. That is the end result that makes individuals who discuss concerning the Mets begin to should differentiate between “which Francisco?” when speaking concerning the group’s finest participant.

Even on this world, Alvarez in all probability doesn’t unseat Pete Alonso within the coronary heart of the batting order, although perhaps he takes up residence within the 5 slot. But it surely does present a marked enchancment over his 2023 efficiency, particularly as a result of he’s not under league-average as a hitter. In 2023, Alavarez had a DRC+ of 90, primarily as a result of an incapability to succeed in base. Alvarez had the kind of batting common that’s a downside in your fantasy group, and also you attempt to go get a Luis Arraez sort merely to counteract. He OBP normally was fairly poor as nicely, sliding in underneath the Perez-Elster Line (learn: .300) at .284. This PECOTA projection accounts for lots extra contact, and a bit extra walks as nicely.

The form of this manufacturing appears an terrible like Cal Raleigh‘s 2023 season, which was a rattling advantageous 12 months. And to provide you some perspective, PECOTA’s Ninetieth-percentile projection on Raleigh appears so much like this line as nicely. So provided that Alvarez is being drafted in NFBC swimming pools across the 147 spot, you may be taking a look at good-Raleigh manufacturing at a slight low cost from drafting the Mariners’ backstop, who’s going round a spherical earlier.

Have in mind right here that, in PECOTA’s eyes, even a high-end final result doesn’t point out Alvarez changing into an Adley-lite all-round hitting phenom. The problems with contact are actual, and the Mets’ lineup (and development) don’t assist large numbers in runs and RBI. Should you consider on this younger catcher’s progress and growth, anticipate him to pop greater than a handful of homers, however nonetheless be largely a one-category contributor. There’s extra room to develop in dynasty, the place you possibly can pencil him in for half a decade, however in redraft, he’s extra more likely to be a $5 lottery ticket that wins you $20, not $100.

The Tenth Percentile

462 PA  /  48 R  /  16 HR  /  53 RBI  /  1 SB  /  .221 AVG  /  2.1 WARP

Right here’s the low bar for Alvarez to clear … and it’s actually not that unhealthy. On this state of affairs, Alvarez doesn’t attain base sufficient to submit stable counting stats, and the typical falls off a cliff. Nevertheless, his energy nonetheless pushes by way of and he runs into sufficient to get 16 homers, however the Mets drop him within the order and he doesn’t do a lot else by way of fantasy stats. In the true world? Nice. To your fantasy group? Ouch. You would’ve gotten a participant in a greater state of affairs to punch up these R + RBI numbers, or no less than not completely cratered your batting common. This model of Alvarez is droppable, skippable, and missable, and also you’d higher be prepared to fit in an up-and-coming second catcher earlier than your season will get completely out of attain.

On this situation, you in all probability had the choice of Alvarez or different, equally drafted-and-valued gamers like Gabriel Moreno, Bo Naylor, or Logan O’Hoppe … or among the middle-tier backstops with extra years within the league like Sean Murphy or Willson Contreras. Moreno and Contreras deliver so much higher batting common to the desk, Murphy carries with him the dynamite Atlanta lineup (and all of the R and RBI that include that), Naylor has extra total athleticism and on-base, and O’Hoppe … nicely, he’s so much like Alvarez, with extra age and damage danger. (I’m fading him a bit in comparison with the sphere this 12 months.) However on the Tenth-percentile, Alvarez has no saving grace; two handfuls of dwelling runs don’t make up for the putrid common. Irrespective of how poorly he performs, he’s an excellent wager to get taking part in time in New York, however you possibly can’t run him out on a weekly foundation if he’s struggling to hit big-league breaking stuff to this degree.

Given either side of the equation, I truly see Alvarez as considerably of a medium-risk, higher-floor catching pickup in comparison with some others after the highest tiers of the market–given his age, how wild is that? He doesn’t have a big damage historical past or a critical blocker to taking part in time, and his protection will maintain him within the lineup. He completely will run right into a dozen or extra dwelling runs, even when he doesn’t crack the Mendoza line, and 25 homers is an affordable projection given what we noticed in earlier years and PECOTA’s knowledge. Should you don’t need to go large on the high of the catching market, I actually like pairing Alvarez with an upside play later (Alejandro Kirk, Henry Davis, and even Shea Langeliers should you’re an actual sicko) to create the potential for some constructive variance with out blowing up your price range or draft slot. Simply be prepared to choose up just a few AVG-first varieties, as a result of even when he has a giant breakout, you possibly can’t anticipate him to place up large numbers there.