Ever since Main League Baseball launched the primary drip of its bat monitoring knowledge this spring, I’ve been maintaining a tally of a specific leaderboard. I don’t know if anyone else cares a lot about it, however I’ve been fascinated by the quick swing leaderboard. I haven’t been monitoring it religiously; I’ve simply been checking in each couple of weeks. Additionally, I haven’t been taking a look at it the way in which you’re alleged to. I’m solely the underside of the listing. I suppose that makes it not a lot a leaderboard as a trailerboard, however I don’t care. I’m involved in it as a result of there’s an honest-to-goodness horse race happening there.
A quick swing is one the place the barrel of the bat is touring a minimum of 75 mph when it strikes or comes closest to the ball. That quantity was chosen, per Mike Petriello, “as a result of that’s the road the place, on a per-swing foundation, a swing goes from destructive run worth for a hitter to common, on its approach to optimistic.” All issues being equal, it’s higher to swing exhausting. On a person participant foundation, right here’s the correlation between fast-swing fee and wRC+. Roughly talking, 5 share factors of fast-swing fee is value three additional factors of wRC+:
Right here’s one thing that will shock you: Quick-swing fee (R = .48) has a stronger correlation to wRC+ than common bat pace does (R = .41). I assume that that is the case for a similar cause that Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity is a extra helpful stat than common exit velocity. You’re ignoring an enormous chunk of much less helpful data and specializing in the swings that may end up in actual harm.
To be clear, there’s a sure type of bias baked into these numbers. It’s not simply that quick swings are higher, it’s that almost all gamers must put themselves in good place to get off their greatest swing. The extra it’s a must to modify to the pitch since you didn’t time it up proper or as a result of it moved in a route you weren’t anticipating, the extra it’s a must to change your mechanics, which is able to drag down your bat pace. Subsequently, gamers with higher pitch recognition, higher plate self-discipline, and extra adaptable swings will get off more durable swings extra usually. The best bat pace recorded thus far is 88 mph, however 25 completely different gamers have hit a minimum of 87.7 mph, and 67 completely different gamers have hit a minimum of 87.0. In different phrases, numerous gamers are able to hitting the ball as exhausting as Aaron Choose or Shohei Ohtani. The actual differentiator is their skill to get to that energy frequently.
The underside of the listing works in a similar way. There are many gamers who hardly ever swing exhausting, however they’ve completely different causes for it. Few of the gamers on the very backside of the quick swing leaderboard have the capability to swing as exhausting as Oneil Cruz. Nonetheless, some are deliberately taking shorter, softer cuts as a result of they’re prioritizing stable contact, whereas some (I’m so sorry, Charlie Blackmon) appear to be swinging softly as a result of they simply can’t put themselves in a great place to drive the ball. At the moment, we’re within the two gamers who greatest exemplify the soft-swing-to-celebration pipeline: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan.
I’ve been checking the underside of the quick swing leaderboard for one cause: For many of the season, neither Arraez nor Kwan had registered a single quick swing. They had been at 0.0%. They had been the one certified gamers with double zeroes, and I used to be rooting exhausting for them to make it by means of the entire season that manner. Via July 9, Kwan was operating a 172 wRC+, fifth greatest in baseball, whereas Arraez was at 104. The leaderboard was lovely and it regarded like this:
Alas, nothing gold can keep. On July 10, Arraez noticed a juicy 96.5-mph four-seamer from Bryce Miller proper over the center of the plate. The Crown Prince of Cromulent Contact lastly caved to his internal caveman, unleashing a 77.1-mph swing that resulted in a 97.9-mph bullet — proper to second base for a straightforward groundout:
And identical to that, it was a one-horse race. Regardless of coming from nowhere to slug .512 within the first half, Kwan stood alone as the one certified participant in baseball who hadn’t registered a single quick swing all season. Perhaps that strain was an excessive amount of for him, as a result of he solely lasted one other 13 days earlier than becoming a member of Arraez. (Extra seemingly, Kwan was merely urgent, as he was at that time mired in one of many worst slumps of his quick profession.) Like Arraez, Kwan yanked a innocent grounder to the suitable aspect of the infield. Not like Arraez, he didn’t even make nice contact, sending a Shelby Miller splitter on the backside of the zone to first base with a 76.5-mph swing:
Slightly over two weeks later, Kwan lapsed once more, however a minimum of this time he received his cash’s value. Simeon Woods Richardson put a particularly hittable four-seamer belt excessive and proper over the center, and Kwan acknowledged the providing with the bare-minimum quick swing, a 75-mph reduce that despatched the ball 396 ft into the suitable area bleachers:
Though that was the quickest tracked swing of Kwan’s season, it solely ranked twentieth when it comes to exit velocity. That’s one of many tips that each of those gamers possess. They’re so good at squaring the ball up that they don’t essentially must swing exhausting. Again when bat monitoring knowledge got here out, the components for figuring out precisely how squared-up any batted ball is was launched as properly. It’s a easy share based mostly on the pace of the pitch and the pace of the bat. It appears like this:
Squared-Up Share = EV / ((Bat Velocity x 1.23) + (0.2116 x Pitch Velocity))
Utilizing that components, let me hit you with a trick query: Each time Participant A swings, they’ve a bat pace of 65 mph, and so they sq. the ball up at 90%. Each time Participant B swings, they’ve a bat pace of 75 mph, and so they sq. the ball up at 80%. Who hits the ball more durable?
I advised you this was a trick query. They’re practically similar. Participant A hits the ball 91.0 mph, whereas Participant B hits it 90.7 mph. Understand that the squared-up cutoff is 80%. Understand that a mean bat pace of 75 would put you close to the highest of the league and 65 mph would put you close to the very backside. Each single time, Participant B is squaring the ball up and swinging with the bat pace of the common residence run, however they’re nonetheless a hair beneath Participant A. Kwan and Arraez are by no means going to problem for the league lead in exit velocity, however they sq. the ball up each usually and properly.
I’d like to finish on one thing that’s undoubtedly not statistically vital, so don’t take it too critically, however I nonetheless assume it’s fairly fascinating. At the start of this text, I discussed that 75 mph is the cutoff for a quick swing as a result of, on common, that’s the place swings begin to accrue optimistic run worth. It takes a humongous pattern, like entire-league humongous, to make these numbers statistically vital. On a person participant foundation, any correlation you discover shall be tiny, however I made a decision to take a look at each tracked swing this season from each Arraez and Kwan, after which calculate the correlation coefficients between their bat pace and run worth. For Arraez, there was nearly no correlation in any respect (R = .01) between bat pace and run worth. Even if you happen to restrict the pattern to balls in play, the correlation solely will increase to .02. For Kwan, the correlation continues to be a particularly weak .06, but it surely a minimum of appears to exist. Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for Aaron Choose, and located a correlation of .09, going as much as .13 if you happen to look solely at balls in play. For Choose, more durable swings are likely to see higher outcomes. For Kwan, and to a surprising extent for Arraez, the 2 are a lot much less associated. Since they don’t essentially must swing exhausting to carry out properly on the plate, possibly it’s time they deal with what’s most necessary. Proper now Arraez is forward 1-to-2 within the Arduous Swing Avoidance Sweepstakes. He’s received simply over a month to defend that lead.
