For the primary time since Week 4, all 32 NFL groups are in motion this week, and 5 of the video games are (or have been, as of Friday evening) anticipated to be determined by a subject purpose or much less.
Not less than that’s what DraftKings Sportsbook says.
The road on two of the opposite video games, together with the Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks, was 3-1/2.
Must be enjoyable!
Particularly whenever you issue within the commerce deadline that hits the league roughly 16 hours after the Monday Night time Soccer broadcast ends (aka October thirty first at 4pm Jap).
This weekend’s video games ought to assist separate the patrons from the sellers.
And, with just a bit luck, this weekend’s video games might be a bit extra predictable than final week’s video games have been.
Enjoyable Truth: Mookie was the one considered one of us that completed above .500 on their picks final week; I used to be an all-time worst 3-10. Ouch!
Let’s hit all 4 of the NFC West video games, lets?
Rams at Cowboys, 10:00am, FOX, O/U 45.5
It’s nice pleasure that I, Frank T. Raines, make the next prediction: The NFC West will begin the day 0-1.
The Dallas Cowboys are one thing of a scorching mess this yr.
Observe: That’s a scientific time period :).
Fast Recap: Dallas began the season by dominating the 2 New Jersey groups by a mixed rating of 70-10, then bought spanked by Arizona in a sport that is still the Cardinals solely win by Week 7. The Cowboys rebounded by handing Invoice Belichick the worst lack of his profession, 38-3, after which promptly embarrassed themselves towards the Niners on Sunday Night time Soccer the next week (42-10). Dallas managed to carry on for a 3-point win over SoFi Stadium’s No. 2 group (LAC) and entered their bye week with a 4-2 report.
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The Los Angeles Rams have been their very own form of scorching mess – though they did handle to embarrass the Seahawks in Week 1.
Fast Recap: In opposition to the Niners, the Rams performed a robust first half (tied 17-all) and a horrible second half. L.A. gave up 259 passing yards to a one-legged Joe Burrow in Week 3, after which let a rookie quarterback (Anthony Richardson) come again from 23 right down to drive additional time in Week 4. In Week 5, they hung with Jalen Hurts & Co by the primary half-hour, trailed by 3 on the half, and solely allowed 6 factors within the second half . . . however they went scoreless and misplaced by 9. L.A.’s Week 6 sport towards Arizona may have (ought to have?) been a turning level for them: they have been down 9-6 and had a complete of 5 yards on the bottom at halftime, however then placed on a clinic with 174 dashing yards within the second half (153 by Kyren WIlliams) and gained 26-9. Sadly (for them), Pittsburgh stole the sport final week.
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It’s a tricky name (probably not), however on the finish of the day, I’m going with the group that has the higher report, the group that’s well-rested (aka coming off their bye), and the group that hasn’t misplaced at house since Week 1 of the 2022 season.
Enjoyable Truth: The Cowboys’ common margin of victory of their final 10 house video games is 16.4 factors: Cowboys 335, opponents 171.
The Choose: Cowboys to win and canopy, Over 45.5
Browns at Seahawks, 1:05pm, FOX, O/U 37.5
The principle picture for this text wasn’t a mistake: Myles Garrett is the important thing to right this moment’s sport between the Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns.
Garrett had himself a day final week with two strip-sacks of Gardner Minshew (considered one of which was returned for a Cleveland landing) . . .
. . . and a blocked subject purpose.
For the season, Garrett is the league’s No. 3 sack artist, with 7-1/2 QB takedowns, trailing solely Danielle Hunter (9.0) and T.J. Watt (8.0). DraftKings Sportsbook at the moment has him and Micah Parsons because the co-favorites for the Defensive Participant of the Yr award (+200 every; that are the identical odds Devon Witherspoon at the moment has to win the DROY award).
The above however, if Seattle’s offensive line can preserve Myles Garrett from wreaking havoc, the Seahawks ought to win – and doubtless fairly convincingly.
If not, will probably be a protracted, lengthy day for the 12s.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, Cleveland might be rolling with their backup quarterback (P.J. Walker) and should or might not have their main rusher (Jerome Ford), who was listed as questionable as of Friday evening. After all, Ford is just their main rusher as a result of their “true RB1”, Nick Chubb, suffered a season-ending damage in Week 2.
Observe: Former Seahawks WR Marquise Goodwin can also be listed as Questionable for this week’s matchup between his two most up-to-date groups.
Seattle sports activities the league’s Sixth-best run protection by the primary seven weeks so they need to be nice in that regard.
Nevertheless, the Seahawks don’t all the time fare properly towards backup QBs.
P.J. Walker is likely to be a distinct story although.
To date this season, Walker has accomplished 33 of 66 passes (an excellent 50%) with 0 touchdowns and three interceptions – – – which is fairly constant together with his first three seasons, but additionally worse than every of the three:
2020: 4 video games, 1 begin, 57.1% completion charge, 1 TD, 5 INTs
2021: 5 video games, 1 begin, 54.5% completion charge, 1 TD, 3 INTs
2022: 6 video games, 5 begins, 59.4% completion charge, 3 TDs, 3 INTs
Curiously, Walker’s backup, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (aka DTR), has the identical 0:3 TD-to-INT ratio with a barely larger completion charge (52.8%, 19 of 36).
Additionally price mentioning: Walker and DTR have practically an identical QBRs: 23.5 for Walker vs. 23.0 for DTR.
Observe: For the sake of comparability, Geno Smith’s completion charge is 68.6%, his TD-to-INT ratio is 7:4 (which ain’t nice, however nonetheless higher than 0:3), and his QBR is 61.4.
One final tidbit . . .
The Seahawks have (rightly) taken a good quantity of warmth over their poor third down and pink zone conversion charges which, per Professional Soccer Reference, sit at 35.7% (25 of 70) and 48% (12 of 25), respectively.
That very same website places the Browns at 29.5% (26 of 88) on third down, and 64.3% (9 of 14) within the pink zone.
On the floor, it’s simple to take a look at that and suppose Seattle is healthier than Cleveland on third down and worse than Cleveland within the pink zone – as a result of it’s true.
However . . .
Cleveland has solely been within the pink zone 14 occasions by their first 6 video games; Seattle has been within the pink zone nearly twice as typically.
That bodes properly for us.
The Choose: Seahawks to win and canopy, Over 37.5
Ravens at Cardinals, 1:25pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
The Baltimore Ravens are the largest highway favourite in Week 8.
By quite a bit.
Philadelphia and Kansas Metropolis are each favored by 7 (over Washington and Denver, respectively). As of Friday evening, DraftKings Sportsbook had the 5-2 Ravens as 9-1/2 level favorites over the 1-6 Arizona Cardinals.
If that doesn’t let you know all the things that you must learn about this sport, perhaps the outcomes from Week 7 will . . .
Baltimore hosted Detroit, who got here into the sport with a 5-1 report. The Ravens scored 28 factors earlier than the Lions recorded their first 1st down. The Ravens completed the sport with 503 yards (towards a group that had been permitting solely 285.8 per sport) and gained by a rating of 38-6
I’ll let Discipline Gulls’ personal Jacson Bevens inform you what occurred to Arizona:
Seattle dealt with the absence of arguably their finest offensive participant, the destructive power following a loss, and the questions that include it to lock in a chokehold within the first quarter and spend the remainder of the sport squeezing till the Cardinals tapped out.
Everyone knows that the ultimate rating was Seattle 20, Arizona 10. We additionally know that Arizona solely had one drive longer than 26 yards all sport (and eight drives beneath 20 yards).
For the sport, Arizona mustered all of 249 yards.
After all, I ought to point out that for pretty much as good as Seattle’s protection has been the final 3 video games, permitting a median of 237 yards and a mere 10 factors per contest, Baltimore’s protection has been taking part in at that degree all season: they’ve allowed a league-low 13.9 factors per sport and have surrendered solely 271.7 yards per sport.
Observe: The 271.7 yards per sport is nice for No. 2 league-wide, however it’s a large 28.7 yards behind their AFC North rivals, the Cleveland Browns.
And, sure, that signifies that Seattle is dealing with the NFL’s two finest defenses (yardage-wise) in back-to-back weeks. (Inform me once more how “the gauntlet” begins with the Niners in Week 12.)
In principle, Arizona may have Kyler Murray again for this one . . .
Per head coach Jonathan Gannon, Arizona’s flying squirrel is “absolutely wholesome”, is “explosive getting out of the pocket”, is “correct”, and has “good command of the offense proper now.”
Murray is, nonetheless, listed as Uncertain for this week’s sport.
Methinks Arizona will fall to 1-7, and Baltimore will head to the Seattle sport at 6-2. That stated, Arizona has been surprisingly aggressive in most of their video games (even when the ultimate scores don’t all the time replicate that), so . . .
The Choose: Ravens to win and (barely) cowl, Over 44.5
Bengals at Niners, 1:25pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
The three-3 Cincinnati Bengals are 0-3 of their convention and 0-2 of their division, however they’re 3-0 towards the NFC West and poised to make it a clear sweep this weekend.
Clearly, the 12s are rooting for them to do it.
The 5-1 San Francisco 49ers are favored, they’re taking part in at house, and so they’re tied with Detroit for the second-best report within the NFC.
However . . .
WR Deebo Samuel has been dominated OUT for this week’s sport.
LT Trent Williams is Questionable with an ankle damage.
RB Christian McCaffrey can also be Questionable with an indirect damage – though everyone knows he’s gonna play if solely so he can prolong his report for consecutive video games with a landing to 17.
QB Brock Purdy can also be listed as Questionable, however it looks as if he’ll clear the league’s concussion protocol in time to play.
The query is: Will any of these gamers be 100%?
The larger query is: Will the San Fran damage bug be sufficient to tip the end result of this sport within the Bengals’ favor?
Most likely not.
However let’s not neglect that the Niners are at the moment using a 2-game shedding streak, having misplaced by 2 in Cleveland (19-17) in Week 6 and by 5 in Minnesota (22-17) final week.
Positive, they rolled by the primary 5 video games on their schedule, profitable by nearly 20 factors per sport with a median rating of 33.4 to 13.6.
The final two weeks although, they’ve struggled.
If a now-healthy Joe Burrow and his trusty sidekick, Ja’Marr Chase, are on their sport, and if the Bengals protection discovered one thing they’ll use within the gameplans the Browns and Vikings deployed towards Shanahan’s crew . . . ¯_(ツ)_/¯
Admittedly, I’m letting my 12 bias affect this choose, and I’m dreaming of Seattle shifting into first place this weekend, and increasing their division lead whereas the Niners take their bye subsequent week, so . . .
The Choose: The Bengals upset the Niners and win outright, Over 43.5
Assuming I’m proper on every of those picks, the NFC West standings will appear like this come Sunday evening:
Seattle, 5-2
San Francisco, 5-3
Los Angeles, 3-5
Arizona, 1-7
Man, would that be good!
Go Hawks!
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Now, let’s see how the remainder of the Discipline Gulls workers thinks the weekend will play out . . .
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Take a look at DraftKings Sportsbook, the official sportsbook accomplice of SB Nation.
