Members of the NextGen, or “Subsequent Technology”, are operating out of time to win a grand slam. After the repeated success of the massive three, youthful gamers had been tipped to beat them on the main stage, or no less than declare a significant, resembling Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev.
Solely two have been in a position to do that. This isn’t meant to be essential of gamers who haven’t but received a slam. The NextGen have achieved nice success within the ATP circuit whereas persevering with to encourage and entertain thousands and thousands of followers worldwide.
However for many of those gamers, based mostly on statistics, the prospect of profitable even only one slam is trying ever extra unlikely.
Profitable a Maiden Slam
Beneath are three tables with all first-time main winners since 2000 sorted by age, years after turning professional, and the overall variety of grand slams received.
Identify
First Grand Slam
Age
Rafael Nadal
2005 Roland Garros
19
Leyton Hewitt
2001 US Open
19
Carlos Alcaraz
2022 US Open
19
Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open
20
Juan Martin del Potro
2009 US Open
20
Marat Safin
2000 US Open
20
Roger Federer
2003 Wimbledon
21
Andy Roddick
2003 US Open
21
Juan Carlos Ferrero
2003 Roland Garros
23
Andy Murray
2012 US Open
25
Gaston Gaudio
2004 Roland Garros
25
Daniil Medvedev
2021 US Open
25
Albert Costa
2002 Roland Garros
26
Thomas Johansson
2002 Australian Open
26
Marin Cilic
2014 US Open
26
Dominic Thiem
2020 US Open
27
Stan Wawrinka
2014 Australian Open
28
Goran Ivanisevic
2001 Wimbledon
29
Imply common = 23.28
Identify
First Grand Slam
Years After Turning Professional
Leyton Hewitt
2001 US Open
3
Marat Safin
2000 US Open
3
Andy Roddick
2003 US Open
3
Rafael Nadal
2005 Roland Garros
4
Juan Martin del Potro
2009 US Open
4
Carlos Alcaraz
2022 US Open
5
Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open
5
Roger Federer
2003 Wimbledon
5
Juan Carlos Ferrero
2003 Roland Garros
5
Andy Murray
2012 US Open
7
Daniil Medvedev
2021 US Open
7
Gaston Gaudio
2004 Roland Garros
8
Thomas Johansson
2002 Australian Open
8
Albert Costa
2002 Roland Garros
9
Marin Cilic
2014 US Open
9
Dominic Thiem
2020 US Open
9
Stan Wawrinka
2014 Australian Open
12
Goran Ivanisevic
2001 Wimbledon
13
Imply Common: 6.61
Identify
First Grand Slam
Years After Turning Professional
Leyton Hewitt
2001 US Open
3
Marat Safin
2000 US Open
3
Andy Roddick
2003 US Open
3
Rafael Nadal
2005 Roland Garros
4
Juan Martin del Potro
2009 US Open
4
Carlos Alcaraz
2022 US Open
5
Novak Djokovic
2008 Australian Open
5
Roger Federer
2003 Wimbledon
5
Juan Carlos Ferrero
2003 Roland Garros
5
Andy Murray
2012 US Open
7
Daniil Medvedev
2021 US Open
7
Gaston Gaudio
2004 Roland Garros
8
Thomas Johansson
2002 Australian Open
8
Albert Costa
2002 Roland Garros
9
Marin Cilic
2014 US Open
9
Dominic Thiem
2020 US Open
9
Stan Wawrinka
2014 Australian Open
12
Goran Ivanisevic
2001 Wimbledon
13
The very first thing that struck me was the variety of gamers who received their first main within the first a part of their careers.
With a complete knowledge set of 18 entries, 12/18 or 66.67% had been 25 or youthful once they received their preliminary grand slam.
The second factor I observed was how vital enjoying over 9 years {of professional} tennis was, with simply an 11.11% likelihood of profitable a slam. Thirdly, outstanding success on the main stage has solely been achieved by gamers profitable their first grand slam at 21 years previous or youthful and 5 years or much less after turning professional (i.e. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic).
There are two limitations when drawing conclusions from the information above. The primary is that the information set is partial, taking data from 2000 onwards. A broader supply base may present extra dependable outcomes to look at the progress (or lack thereof) from the NextGen.
Nonetheless, it’s also important to match gamers throughout time who all have an basically “fashionable” tennis model. I’d argue that by 2000, the trendy baseline recreation is firmly established and is comparable sufficient, together with the evolution of rackets, to the enjoying kinds and tools of as we speak and the close to future.
The second limitation is that I’m assuming the previous is a dependable indicator of the long run. That’s as a result of gamers had been extra more likely to win their first grand slam at a particular age vary, and time after turning professional, the identical vary and time will apply now.
It’s hypothetically attainable that tendencies within the knowledge above might be radically altered within the subsequent 23 years, with possibly older and older winners of grand slams, with extra time after turning professional turning into extra frequent. However, for causes explored later, that is unlikely.
How does every of the NextGen Evaluate?
Medvedev and Thiem already seem on our lists above, so we are able to depend them out, although they each characteristic within the backside half of the information for age and time after turning professional. Broadly talking, the older you might be and the extra time you’ve performed on the tour (accounting for a minimal quantity {of professional} expertise), the much less possible you might be to win your first grand slam.
There are a number of causes for this. Confidence can wain as soon as gamers have appeared in grand slams a number of occasions however by no means featured in or received a ultimate match. They could begin to doubt their skills to be Slam worthy or have the psychological toughness to win the match.
Over time, an absence of grand slam success and time spent as a professional with out huge wins may translate right into a psychological block, particularly if you happen to’ve been touted as a future winner however did not ship on expectations.
Take the 2020 US Open ultimate, the place a tense Zverev misplaced regardless of being two units up. He made 65 unforced errors and 15 double faults within the match towards Thiem. Zverev additionally lead the match’s double faults with a colossal 64.
Declining physicality over time additionally performs an element. Good footwork and footspeed are wanted to achieve balls and switch sufficient vitality into photographs. Older gamers naturally expertise stiffness, pains and accidents, which might hamper efficiency or finish their careers fully. With the best-of-five set format, agile motion is significant to endure a collection of probably gruelling matches.
The older you might be, having by no means received a grand slam, the better likelihood your tennis profession has already peaked round possibly a clutch of different minor titles however by no means having success on the main stage. A participant can have had the power to win a giant title, however as soon as misplaced it, is unable to regain it.
One-slam wonders like Cilic, del Potro and Roddick present that some gamers are solely given a small opening of their careers, and in the event that they fail to translate that likelihood into victory, it may be misplaced endlessly.
Lastly, as extra time passes with out a main, the better the prospect you by no means had the expertise anyway, and it was by no means going to occur. Different gamers had been capable of beat you on uncooked talent, psychological fortitude, and physicality.
Identify
Age
Years since turning professional
Alexander Zverev
26
10
Matteo Berrettini
27
8
Andrey Rublev
25
9
Taylor Fritz
25
8
Stefanos Tsitsipas
24
7
Primarily based on the primary two tables, Zverev and Berrettini are least more likely to declare a significant.
Zverev has a 33.33% likelihood based mostly on age and an 11.11% likelihood based mostly on time since turning professional.
Berrettini has a 16.67% likelihood based mostly on age and a 38.89% based mostly on professional time.
Rublev has a 50% likelihood based mostly on age and a 27.78% likelihood based mostly on professional time.
Fritz has a 50% likelihood based mostly on age and a 38.89% likelihood based mostly on professional time.
Tsitsipas has a 50% likelihood based mostly on age and a 50% likelihood based mostly on professional time and is probably to say a significant.
Different indicators assist this concept of the Greek’s quick prospects – Tsitsipas is the one member to seem in a couple of grand slam ultimate and has the best rating of 5.
Apart from Tsitsipas, the chance of the NextGen ever profitable a grand slam is minimal and reduces yearly.
It is usually uncertain that any of the remaining NextGen can win a slam and have vital success with a number of majors, as they’re far past the age vary and years since turning professional of the massive three.
Apparently Alcaraz suits proper into that huge three vary, profitable his first grand slam on the similar age as Nadal and having the identical variety of years since turning professional as Djokovic and Federer.
Although younger Alcaraz could also be on the precipice of tennis greatness, the stats inform us that the NextGen’s window of alternative is closing quick.
Do you suppose any of the remaining NextGen will win a slam? Who’s most realistically more likely to win a couple of main? Go away your feedback under.
