Ryan Pressly Accepts Trade to Cubs, Paul Sewald Signs With Guardians

Because the reliever market picked up over the past week, two right-handers, each former closers, discovered new properties within the Central divisions. First, final Wednesday, Paul Sewald agreed to a one-year take care of the Cleveland Guardians. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Pressly waived his no-trade clause to ensure that the Houston Astros to ship him to the Chicago Cubs for the ultimate assured 12 months of his contract.

Whereas each of those pitchers are possible previous their peaks by way of stuff, they’ll look to proceed being contributors with their new golf equipment. Let’s look at the potential affect of those strikes and focus on how the 2 pitchers will match into the bullpens of their new groups.

Sewald Joins Elite Cleveland Bullpen

Coming off a down 12 months relative to his earlier three seasons, Sewald’s take care of the Guardians is for one 12 months and $6 million, with a $10 million mutual choice for 2026. The transfer solidifies the center a part of their bullpen, which already was top-of-the-line within the majors. With Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis anchoring the group, Sewald will occupy a lesser function than he’s held over the previous couple of years. That’s not a foul factor for him, as he can work to return to type with out the stress of getting to ship in high-leverage innings.

As velocities have elevated through the years, and hitters have tailored to them, the margins for error for pitchers residing within the low-90s band have grown thinner and thinner. What we noticed from Sewald final season is an efficient instance of what occurs when pitchers with such a profile lose even only one tick on their fastballs.

From 2021-23, a three-year stretch throughout which Sewald was one of many higher relievers in baseball, his four-seamer ranged from 92.2 mph to 92.5 mph. It was extraordinarily constant on that entrance. Then, in 2024, that quantity dropped all the way down to 91.4 mph on common, and with that, his efficiency additionally dropped. Here’s a fast abstract of how Sewald’s efficiency on his heater regressed final season:

As his fastball velocity fell final 12 months, Sewald noticed a pointy lower in its effectiveness by each whiffs and total efficiency. This may very well be associated to the pitch’s location and its launch angle; over the past 4 seasons, he’s been throwing his fastball progressively greater and better within the zone and releasing it nearer to the center of the pitcher’s mound. Mix that with a dip in velocity and, all of the sudden, the pitch was simply extra regular than it had been previously.

One other downside for Sewald final 12 months was his sweeper, the pitch that was most chargeable for turning him right into a high-leverage reliever upon becoming a member of the Mariners in 2021. His total numbers with it recommend it was nonetheless a weapon — he held opponents to a .196 common (.214 xBA) and a .214 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) towards it — however a better look tells a special story.

Throughout his aforementioned three-year stretch of excellence, he was comfy throwing his sweeper to each lefties and righties as a approach to preserve them off his fastball. In every of these three seasons, he threw his sweeper not less than 45% of the time towards righties and not less than 35% of the time when going through lefties, and it was efficient towards each side. That’s particularly essential as a result of Sewald is usually a two-pitch pitcher. Final 12 months, nonetheless, lefties teed off on his sweeper. Test this out:

So what modified? Maybe a few of it may be attributed to his diminished fastball velocity, which has lower the speed hole between his fastball and sweeper to eight.3 mph, down from 9.7 in 2022. Besides, the velo distinction between the 2 pitches was additionally 8.3 mph in 2023, and that season each pitches have been nonetheless efficient towards lefties and righties. The higher concern right here appears to be the identical factor that threw off his fastball: his launch level, which additionally shifted extra towards the center of the mound when throwing his sweeper. Because of this, he struggled to command his sweeper in 2024, as you possibly can see in these two warmth maps. The primary one is from 2023, the second from 2024.

He began throwing the pitch extra within the center plate and fewer usually out of the zone. Even with lesser command, he might nonetheless preserve righties at bay along with his sweeper as a result of the pitch breaks away from them. In opposition to lefties, although, he has much less margin for error along with his location. Sweepers that stay within the zone towards lefties break properly into their bat paths. That’s not a recipe for fulfillment.

It’s value noting that a few of Sewald’s struggles in 2024 may very well be injury-related, as he handled each neck and indirect accidents that might’ve triggered his dip in velocity. These illnesses may also clarify his change in location and horizontal launch level, because the neck and indirect muscle mass are particularly essential for a pitcher’s upper-body mechanics. Sewald turns 35 in late Could, so a few of his diminished stuff may very well be attributed to growing old, but when he’s wholesome, we must always count on him to have some type of rebound — even when he doesn’t get again to the height efficiency from his days with the Mariners.

Pressly Takes Over as Cubs Nearer

For many of the offseason, the Astros have been attempting to commerce Pressly to shed some wage, and as they revived their efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman final week, shifting Pressly appeared to turn out to be a fair higher precedence. After all, Houston has not but introduced again Bregman, however both manner, buying and selling Pressly gave the Astros extra monetary flexibility.

Houston despatched over $5.5 million to cowl Pressly’s wage this season, however nothing if his contract vests for 2026. The Cubs despatched again Juan Bello, a 20-year-old pitching prospect who was just lately ranked no. 31 on the Cubs’ prospect listing. Bello is a 35+ FV beginning pitcher who, in line with our prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice, “has sufficient projectability and present stuff to be forecast in a depth starter function, however he’ll have to harness his secondaries within the zone extra usually to persistently get extra superior hitters out and switch over a lineup.”

The 36-year-old Pressly had been a priceless member of the bullpen because the Astros traded for him in late July 2018, and through the identical three-year stretch by which Sewald shined, Pressly emerged as one of many high closers within the American League. Nonetheless, Houston’s signing of Josh Hader earlier than final season relegated Pressly to a setup function and in the end made him expendable this offseason. Astros GM Dana Brown mentioned earlier at this time that the Hader signing and Pressly’s corresponding demotion within the bullpen pecking order triggered a “fracture” in his and Pressly’s relationship. Now with the Cubs, Pressly is anticipated to return to closing video games.

Much like Sewald, Pressly is coming off a season with a notable lower in velocity, from 94.7 mph in 2023 to 93.8 mph final 12 months. His diminishing fastball didn’t precisely come as a surpsise, although. In 2022, batters posted a .402 xwOBA towards his four-seamer, and in response, he lower its utilization from 32.9% that 12 months all the way down to 23.1% in 2023. He leaned extra on his slider, which for years has been his finest pitch by run worth by a large margin. It’s odd, then, that he used his four-seamer extra usually than another pitch in 2024. This pitch combine shift didn’t repay, as opponents slugged .500 towards his heater with a .371 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA, in comparison with their .333 SLG, .276 wOBA, and .271 xwOBA towards his slider. I think about Chicago will get him again to throwing primarily sliders once more subsequent season. For some extra context, here’s a three-year snapshot of Pressly’s Stuff+ and utilization for his three most important pitches:

Relievers who swap groups searching for bounce backs are at all times enjoyable tales to comply with. Each Sewald and Pressly are within the later phases of their careers however have a chance to be essential contributors on contending golf equipment. I’ll be being attentive to any potential changes they make come spring time.