Runners Who Make the Least of Their Legs, 2024 Redux

One among my favourite items I wrote final 12 months was about gamers whose baserunning worth was at odds with their footspeed: particularly, those that had been squandering the God-given benefit of their legs. A 12 months later, I’ve a brand new crop of baserunners to write down about. We even have an up to date model of our metric for calculating baserunning worth (BsR) in 2024. So, I made a decision the subject was price a contemporary look.

I took a reasonably subjective strategy after I wrote about this final season. I went via the dash pace leaderboard on Baseball Savant, in contrast it to our BsR leaderboard, and scanned for gamers who stood out. This time round, I made a decision I may very well be somewhat extra scientific. I made a spreadsheet that includes each participant who has taken not less than 300 plate appearances and recorded not less than 100 aggressive runs this season – good, spherical, arbitrary cut-off factors to restrict small pattern measurement randomness. Then, I made up my mind the percentile worth for every participant’s BsR, in addition to the percentile worth for 2 completely different measurements of pace: dash pace and the time it takes to run from house plate to first base (HP to 1B).

As I in contrast the outcomes, three names instantly caught my eye: Jo Adell, Jeff McNeil, and Mickey Moniak. Adell has, by far, the widest hole between his dash pace percentile (86th) and BsR percentile (ninth). That’s roughly a 77% distinction; no different runner has a spot greater than 60%. In the meantime, McNeil boasts the widest hole between his HP to 1B percentile (86th) and BsR percentile (nineteenth). Lastly, Moniak ranks among the many high 20% in each dash pace and HP to 1B, but he ranks among the many backside third in BsR. He has the third-largest hole between his dash pace (84th) and BsR (thirty second) and the fifth-largest hole between his HP to 1B (83rd) and BsR. He’s the one participant with one of many 5 largest gaps in each areas:

Adell’s 2024 marketing campaign ended final Friday when he suffered an indirect pressure. It was an up-and-down season for the previous high prospect, to say the least, however his poor baserunning could have been probably the most disappointing side of his efficiency. The 25-year-old regarded succesful with the glove in proper discipline and confirmed flashes of promise on the plate. Including some worth on the bases ought to have been the simplest means for a participant along with his pure pace to fluff up his total numbers. As an alternative, he value the Angels roughly three runs with plenty of poor baserunning selections.

For one factor, Adell was caught stealing 10 occasions in 25 makes an attempt. That makes him the primary participant since Manuel Margot in 2018 to have 15 or fewer steals and not less than 10 thwarted efforts. In a single significantly clear instance of Adell losing his pace, right here’s a clip of him simply stealing second base, solely to overrun the bag and get caught on his means again:

Along with his inefficient basestealing (his -1.8 wSB ranks eleventh worst amongst all gamers), Adell was practically as detrimental to his group on balls in play. On the play that Statcast identifies as his worst baserunning blunder of the season, he value the Angels -0.82 runs. And he might need value house plate umpire Mark Wegner much more than that:

Furthermore, Adell additionally prompted issues by not operating. Actually, the numbers at Baseball Savant estimate that he value the Angels extra runs by staying put than by getting thrown out. His development try price this season is 4% beneath common, and he value the Angels -2 runs on holds. His most egregious errors on this division had been a few cases through which he failed to show some weakly hit balls into hustle doubles. Within the first clip beneath, he doesn’t appear to note the ball ricochet off second base and into the outfield, so he runs via first as a substitute of rounding the bag.

In the second, he merely doesn’t run quick sufficient out of the field on a pop fly to shallow heart discipline:

To high all of it off, I’ve yet another instance of Adell’s poor baserunning that isn’t even included in his -3.1 BsR; it should go down within the file books as simply one other groundout. On this play, Adell was hustling out the field, however he was so distracted by his quest for a double that he didn’t discover the ball beating him to first base. By taking the scenic path to the bag, he ended the inning and value his group a run in a detailed ballgame:

Ben Clemens wrote about this play (and likewise made the GIF) for his 5 Issues column just a few weeks in the past, and I extremely suggest you verify that out. As Ben mentions, a number of the blame for this explicit play ought to go to first base coach Bo Porter. Certainly, the truth that two of the three gamers I discussed on the high of this text play in Anaheim doesn’t replicate effectively on the Angels teaching employees. And the issue goes past simply Adell and Moniak. Out of the 243 gamers I included in my analysis for this piece, the highest three largest gaps between dash pace and BsR percentiles all belonged to Halos gamers: Adell ranked first, Moniak third, and catcher Logan O’Hoppe slotted in between them. Adell, Moniak, and O’Hoppe had been the one three gamers with a distinction of not less than 50% between their dash pace and BsR percentiles.

As Ian Fleming famously wrote in Goldfinger, “As soon as is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy motion.” On this case, nevertheless, the enemy motion may be coming from inside. New supervisor Ron Washington introduced a extra aggressive baserunning strategy to the Angels in 2024, however the outcomes have been even worse than final season, when the Angels completed twenty eighth with -11.6 BsR. This 12 months’s group has the worst stolen base success price within the majors (72.05%) and the second lowest BsR (-12.5). Out of the ten various kinds of conditions that go into calculating Statcast baserunning worth (xBR), they’ve accrued optimistic worth in just one. Nonetheless, poor teaching can’t absolve these particular person gamers of all of the blame.

There’s a key distinction between the 2 outfielders, although. Regardless of his wonderful dash pace, Adell’s HP to 1B time is barely beneath common (forty fourth percentile), whereas Moniak ranks within the 84th percentile for dash pace and the 83rd percentile for HP to 1B. Maybe a few of this has to do with Moniak’s batting left-handed, which ought to give him a bonus over Adell out of the field. It may additionally partially clarify why Moniak’s -1.2 BsR isn’t practically as poor as Adell’s -3.1 mark. Both means, it’s nonetheless puzzling {that a} runner as fast as Moniak has been a detrimental presence on the bases.

A part of the issue is that Moniak has stolen solely seven baggage. He’s 7-for-10 in stolen base makes an attempt with a -0.6 wSB. In his protection, his costliest “base-stealing” play was one through which he was technically caught stealing house, but, extra precisely, he tripped on his means again to 3rd after a failed bunt try and obtained caught in a rundown:

I wouldn’t essentially name that proof of poor baserunning; all of us journey generally. The true subject is that Moniak hasn’t efficiently stolen sufficient bases to make up for that mistake. Whereas he doesn’t attain base fairly often (.267 OBP), Baseball Reference estimates he has had 108 stolen base alternatives this 12 months. For a runner along with his pace, you’d count on greater than seven steals — and greater than 10 makes an attempt.

In the meantime, Moniak has been somewhat extra aggressive on balls in play, with an development try price of 4% above common. Nonetheless, he has a detrimental xBR due largely to a few outs at third base. This time round, I don’t have a lot to say in his protection. One of many outs wasn’t shut in any respect, and he undoubtedly ought to have held up at second:

On the opposite play, Moniak truly beat the throw, however he slid into third so poorly that he was known as out after a replay evaluation. I don’t like when calls are overturned as a result of a high-definition digicam caught the runner lifting off the bottom for a fraction of a second. On this case, nevertheless, Moniak popped off the bag for lengthy sufficient that third baseman Brett Harris may reapply the tag after reaching his left arm within the air. The out name was greater than justified:

Lastly, we come to McNeil. Like Adell, the Mets second baseman is out for the remainder of the common season after struggling an harm final Friday. He fractured his wrist, and thus, he received’t have an opportunity to enhance his disappointing -2.0 BsR.

McNeil has lengthy been one thing of a baserunning enigma. All through his profession, he has at all times had wonderful HP to 1B occasions regardless of his middling dash pace. The truth that he bats left-handed definitely helps, however there’s clearly extra happening right here. These numbers are all of the proof you want that most pace isn’t the one approach to measure how briskly a participant can transfer:

By getting down the primary bottom line so shortly, McNeil has maintained an above-average profession BABIP (.312) and infield hit price (8.2%), and he’s at all times performed effectively at avoiding double performs. Nonetheless, his capability to flee the batter’s field shortly has not translated into getting good jumps on the bases; he has by no means been a lot of a menace to steal or take the additional bag. He has accrued detrimental baserunning worth in 5 of the previous six seasons, largely on account of his conservative strategy. He swiped simply 5 baggage this 12 months, and his development try price is 7% beneath common.

In keeping with Statcast, McNeil’s three costliest holds this season had been all on performs through which he failed to attain from second on a single to the outfield. After watching all three clips, it’s onerous responsible McNeil for staying put. In every occasion, taking off for house would have been a big danger. That stated, if he may run house as shortly as he runs to first, maybe he would have scored on not less than a type of performs.

Adell, Moniak, and McNeil had been the runners who stood out to me most, however they’re hardly the one ones who’ve squandered their pace this season. From speedsters like Julio Rodríguez to slower-moving sluggers like Juan Soto, there are lots extra gamers who would possibly shock you while you have a look at their baserunning worth in comparison with their pace. So, as a parting notice, I’ll go away you with this desk that includes one other handful of runners who caught my consideration for one purpose or one other, sorted by their BsR: