Jason Martinez: Welcome to a different RosterResource Stay Chat! It’s been one other enjoyable offseason. Rather a lot has occurred and nonetheless a protracted methods to go.
Be at liberty to browse round RosterResource when you want some inspiration for query or two. Right here’s the up to date projection for the Houston Astros with their new 1B … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros
2:02
Thanks for the chat!: How a lot is a greenback/warfare roughly? How overwater (surplus) is Choose’s contract? Are there any research on the very best surplus profession gamers (Jram? Braves gamers?)
2:03
Jon Becker: We’ve a Worth metric that at present values every win at $8M, although a part of our group dialogue on the Winter Conferences was about $/WAR in all probability isn’t linear. I imagine when spitting out contract numbers ZiPS makes use of one thing like $5.5M for the primary win per yr after which $9M for every win thereafter. Regardless of the way you slice it, Choose has been value a ton greater than he’s earned: https://www.fangraphs.com/gamers/aaron-judge/15640/stats?place=OF#…
2:03
Hunter: Walker signing appears to just about rule out a Bregman return to Houston, the place do you see him ending up? Yankees, Cubs, Tigers?
2:06
Jason Martinez: A whole lot of nice suits however I’d suppose the Yankees and Blue Jays must be the almost definitely groups. Undecided the Cubs need to add extra $ and block Matt Shaw. If it’s not Shaw to start the season at 3B, I’d suppose they get a veteran stopgap who may step right into a bench position as soon as Shaw is prepared. Tigers are an amazing match. However, until they’re holding their curiosity very near the vest, it certain doesn’t appear to be they’re gonna spend huge on a free agent. Crimson Sox is also an amazing match, however I feel that might be down the highway if he’s nonetheless accessible in a month.
2:07
Mr Pasta: Hypothetically, if Toronto has by far the very best provide for Burnes however he’s hoping for SF to extend their provide however they don’t budge, do you suppose he’s extra more likely to take the Jays’ cash or settle for regardless of the Giants are providing?
2:07
Jon Becker: Any reply I may give right here could be a complete guess; each participant’s going to have his personal priorities and $ distinction required to take the very best provide even when it’s not his most well-liked touchdown spot.
2:09
wheelhouse: Ben Rice: projections actual or not a significant leaguer
2:11
Jason Martinez: I feel he is usually a strong huge league common. Possibly as quickly as 2025 in the event that they let him play day-after-day and hit on the backside of their lineup. However the query is whether or not the Yankees need to go into the season with that a lot uncertainty. A whole lot of good veteran 1B choices proper now (Santana, Goldschmidt, Alonso).
2:11
Ryanfromtapps: Thanks for taking the time right this moment and for being so usually accessible to speak roster development! The Mariners claimed Raposo (C) from the Blue Jays yesterday and I’m curious to get your ideas on M’s catchers. Garver solely caught in 25 video games final yr – they will’t count on Cal to shoulder a lot of the load once more… can they??
2:12
Jon Becker: I haven’t seen any indication that they’re including a 3rd catcher (or a second one and bumping Garver again to extra of an emergency position), however yeah I don’t suppose Raleigh can realistically catch 80% of the time. Garver was Kirby’s private catcher down the stretch so I’m guessing he sticks with that, and possibly one other easier-to-catch arm (Woo?) half the time, to make it 70/30.
2:13
Brownpants: Likeliest 1B path for AZ now that Walker’s gone? Re-sign Joc and have him play there typically?
2:16
Jason Martinez: Looks like Pavin Smith is the man. Small pattern however he was pretty much as good as he’s ever been in 2024 (.896 OPS, 9 HR in 158 PAs). Additionally they want to determine a technique to get Jordan Lawlar his at-bats as soon as he’s prepared. If a part of that equation is that he performs some 3B, Eugenio Suarez may presumably transfer throughout the diamond and play some 1B.
2:16
Thanks for the chat!: Assuming one other elite season, who finally goes after Vlad subsequent offseason? Doesn’t staying in Toronto take advantage of sense from a match and contract standpoint?
2:17
Jon Becker: I agree with you that Toronto makes probably the most sense, at the very least proper now. If he has one of the best season of his profession in 2025, although, I feel much more groups are keen to miss that he’s a primary baseman and provides him $400M+.
2:18
Dodgers Blue: If the Oneil Cruz in CF scenario bombs, what strikes do you suppose they make with him? Strive in a nook OF spot, transfer again to the dust – and if that’s the case, again to SS? Or do you are feeling they’re totally dedicated to this for a full yr (plus)?
2:20
Jason Martinez: I feel they’re 100% in on him being their CF for the subsequent 4 seasons earlier than free company (or till they commerce him). Appeared comfy on the market and his athleticism makes the adjustment simpler. Looks like transferring him once more throughout the season wouldn’t be excellent. And it’s not like they’ve many different choices on the market.
2:21
DET: Do you suppose Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim is a greater slot in Detroit?
2:22
Jon Becker: Bregman, I feel. There’s definitely danger in giving him a protracted deal contemplating how his stroll charge tanked, however he’s far more of an influence bat than Kim and that’s what the Tigers want proper now greater than something.
2:23
Jules: How are you feeling concerning the Astros offseason?
2:25
Jason Martinez: They’ve a lot extra work to do. For now, I feel they’ve accomplished OK. Paredes/Walker can mix for 60 HR. Dropping Bregman and Tucker will harm. Their projected OF is Meyers-McCormick-Taylor Trammell. So they could want so as to add 2 extra OF and one other SP.
2:25
query man: how a lot of your arcane roster data comes from enjoying OOTP
2:26
Jon Becker: Shockingly, I’ve by no means actually been capable of get into OOTP. I spend an excessive amount of time studying and interested by the actual stuff occurring to keep up a complete different faux league together with it!
2:27
Bullock’s: It appears to me that groups do much more mix-and-match with their lineups and lot much less straight platooning. Equally, extra of biking everybody by means of the DH slightly than having a single one. So the query: what’s your course of for marking lineups / positions / platoons / and so on, and has it gotten more durable?
2:29
Jason Martinez: Yep, it has gotten far more troublesome. Clearly, I transfer issues round fairly often throughout the season as a result of you possibly can decide up on developments. And throughout the offseason, I’m solely displaying what is perhaps a group’s Opening Day lineup. I at all times attempt to emphasize how essential the enjoying time projections are along with the roster projection. Groups actually can have two “bench” gamers with over 400 PAs and 2-4 “lineup regulars” with beneath 500 PAs. However I’m at all times making an attempt to consider higher methods for all of it to make sense to readers with out having so as to add much more rationalization.
2:30
Thanks for the chat!: The place does Stroman find yourself?
2:32
Jon Becker: The Yankees don’t *must* commerce him, however I’m certain they’d prefer to. He’d be one other manner for the A’s to get nearer to the $105M magic quantity to be compliant with income sharing, or possibly the Yankees can work out an iffy-contract swap with somebody. The Reds might want one other starter and may need to do away with Candelario, for instance.
2:33
Cubbie Rubby: Do you suppose both Cassie or Alcantara turn out to be full time gamers this season?
2:35
Jason Martinez: Not on the Cubs, barring an harm or commerce (possibly Suzuki however in all probability not). They’re set with Happ-PCA-Tucker-Suzuki. A commerce to a different group may make it extra possible. Each have good commerce worth for the time being.
2:35
Victoria: How a lot cash do you suppose the Ms could be keen to eat in a Castillo commerce?
2:36
Jon Becker: Relies upon so much on what they’d get in return and the way they’d prefer to facilitate that, IMO. If they will get an actual influence bat like Casas again, possibly they’re keen to pay nearer to half. If it’s extra a want simply to do away with the cash and purchase offense on the FA market, possibly they solely pay a number of million a yr. $22M a yr actually isn’t unhealthy for Castillo contemplating what FA SP have been getting this offseason, in order that they wouldn’t must cowl a lot in any respect to maneuver him.
2:37
SJ: If the Twins are transferring Royce Lewis to 2B and must put Brooks Lee someplace, does that imply Julien is useless within the water?
2:40
Jason Martinez: I at present have Lee at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Julien on the bench (part-time position as 2B/1B/DH) … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins
Not acquainted sufficient with Lee to know whether or not the Twins would favor him at 3B over 2B. He’s a SS so I assume he’d be wonderful at both spot. Undecided why Lewis would transfer to 2B in any other case. They don’t seem to have a MLB-ready 3B prospect they usually barely appear to be collaborating within the offseason. It’d simply be to provide them another choices.
2:41
Dodgers Blue: I believed the A’s made probably the most sense for Yoan Moncada on a 1-year bounce again contract. Now that they signed Urshela – are they out of the image? Or is it nonetheless potential they might signal Yoan to play third and transfer Urshela to a again up position? If not the A’s, do the Marlins now take advantage of sense for Moncada? And if that’s the case, would you see them utilizing him at 2B – or transferring Norby there and giving Yoan 3B?
2:43
Jon Becker: I might a lot slightly signal Moncada than Urshela since there’s precise upside there, although they nonetheless may, I suppose, since Urshela can play a bit brief and first too. I just like the Marlins as a match for Moncada, I’m guessing they’d strive each 2B and 3B out throughout spring coaching and determine which alignment they like greatest.
2:43
Kave Dingman: How do you go about filling out a roster slot when the Opening Day answer just isn’t on the roster but? For instance – Nationals nearer is at present Legislation/Ferrer/Garcia.
2:46
Jason Martinez: It’s considered one of my favourite features of the offseason RosterResource pages … “if we fast-forward to Opening Day with the present roster, that is possible what they’d go along with”. Some are far more apparent holes and may as effectively have a “TBD” however that’s no enjoyable. Some individuals simply overlook that we’ve months to go and nonetheless loads of free agent and commerce prospects.
2:47
Ryan: What precisely is happening in Arizona, 89 wins final yr however radio silence thus far this offseason and now they lose considered one of their higher gamers
2:48
Jon Becker: An excellent chunk of groups haven’t accomplished a lot of something this offseason, and I can get by no means being all that in on bringing Walker again when he ended up signing for 3y/$60M and he’s 33. I feel they’ll, at minimal, commerce away a starter, add a reliever or two, and add some bench depth.
2:48
John B: On the Giants, I’m curious concerning the pondering in having McCray in left and Ramos DH. It looks like there are extra apparent suits at DH (Flores, Encarnacion) and most of the people suppose McCray may use extra time at AAA given his strikeout charge. Thanks
2:51
Jason Martinez: It is a nice instance of what I used to be discussing in my earlier query/reply. I see McCray as the apparent “TBD” however I feel it has thrown a number of individuals off after they see him there. I’m in all probability going to maneuver Wilmer Flores to DH and Ramos to LF — Wilmer had an amazing offensive season in 2023 — however the Giants have stated they need to preserve the DH spot open and rotate it between a bunch of fellows. In order that they have some flexibility so as to add yet another bat, no matter place.
Not straightforward to indicate that on the RR web page, however I suppose that’s motive to host these Stay Chats.
2:52
Hunter: Is there one other transfer coming for the Phillies after signing Kepler? I’m unsure I perceive the match.
2:53
Jon Becker: It didn’t make a complete lot of sense to me both. Kepler’s an excellent proper fielder however hasn’t performed left within the majors, and Castellanos barely has, so somebody’s going to be out of place. And I’m unsure Marsh is far of a middle fielder, both, so total the protection is worse than it was yesterday. Possibly they’re extra assured of their skill to maneuver Castellanos?
2:53
SH, Jr.: Projection programs nonetheless appear to suppose kindly of Tyler Freeman. Followers see launch angle issues. Do you challenge a path to common enjoying time or at the very least non-Twenty sixth-man standing for him?
2:55
Jason Martinez: He in all probability has to attend in line for one more alternative. Just like Gabriel Arias. Superb prospect. Obtained an opportunity to play so much. By no means hit. Now he’s out of choices and the Guardians must prioritize him a bit. Freeman is an efficient prospect. Quick. Versatile. However he didn’t hit sufficient so I feel he will get buried down within the depth chart for now. Particularly as a result of they appear to favor Juan Brito or Angel Martinez at 2B till Bazzana is prepared. He’ll nonetheless get an opportunity to win a bench job.
2:57
YorDaddy: Would it not be sensible for the Astros to maneuver Framber sooner slightly than later for an even bigger haul?
2:58
Jon Becker: If the aim is just to get an even bigger haul, then they need to transfer him now to make that occur, yeah. However whereas Kyle Tucker is inconceivable to completely exchange, they might at the very least exchange his homers (after which some) with Paredes + Walker. There’s not an ace-level pitcher they’re going so as to add in the event that they transfer Framber, since they don’t transcend six yr offers (so no Burnes), so transferring Framer would depart an even bigger void, IMO.
2:59
Bullock’s: Mariners want at the very least two infielders. Gleyber Torres appears about their velocity. Anybody else a greater match for him?
3:00
Jason Martinez: The 2B market is so weak. Mariners appear to be one of the best match however I’m unsure they need to pay him what he’s value. Similar with a number of different groups who may use a 2B improve. Possibly he’d take a 1-year deal and check out once more subsequent offseason. Nonetheless looks like the Yankees are one of the best match for him.
3:00
George: Would you progress CJ Abrams to the outfield when you’re the Nats and look to maneuver Jacob Younger? or simply say you’re going to not win this yr may as effectively see if he can stick at brief?
3:01
Jon Becker: I feel that’s one thing to contemplate down the road, however with out anybody who’s pushing him for SS time proper now, may as effectively preserve him there. Second base may additionally make sense.
3:01
Commerce Simulator: Hey Jason, wished to circle again on my commerce simulator query from a pair weeks in the past. Did that get any traction throughout your FG meetup?
3:04
Jason Martinez: We mentioned some smaller tasks and one very huge challenge that might just about cowl loads of issues of this nature. Not precisely a commerce simulator however you’d be capable to filter much more roster and RosterResource-related information and evaluate gamers by contract, WAR, projected WAR, age, and so on. Undecided of the ETA however I’m hoping to have one thing like this by subsequent offseason.
3:05
Phil: Who’s the likeliest opening day second baseman for the Crimson Sox?
3:06
Jon Becker: Regardless that we’ve obtained Hamilton projected, I’d say it’s in all probability Campbell. We simply don’t like to challenge prime prospects to win a job till we get some extra readability throughout Spring Coaching, particularly if there’s somebody round like Hamilton who performed fairly effectively.
3:06
Jon Becker: I’ll take a number of in a row right here whereas Jason’s away from his keyboard…
3:06
Phil: With Dan’s Tigers ZIPS forecast popping out right this moment, what do you 2 suppose the Tigers ought to do that offseason? Looks like a .500 group with room to enhance, however, additionally a # of younger guys it’s possible you’ll not need to block. Looks like an SP, 1 IF, 1 OF (Teoscar?) would go a great distance.
3:08
Jon Becker: I agree with you that they really feel .500ish. I feel Hinch did a very good job of blending and matching and getting probably the most out of his roster, however that’s not inherently repeatable. SP depth appears fairly good however they might use one other higher-floor man to pair with Skubal, they usually undoubtedly want a giant bat for the center of the order.
3:09
Doc: In the event you’re the Mets and you have to use a nook INF place for an influence bat, do you: (a) resign Pete, (b) signal Bregman and shift Vientos, (c) look to the commerce market (e.g., Arenado, Naylor), or (d) one thing extra attention-grabbing?
3:10
Jon Becker: I might in all probability go along with (c), assuming I can line up with Cleveland for Naylor on a good bundle. A lot decrease danger than signing an older free agent for a number of years.
3:10
Dr. J: Mookie can’t play SS once more, can he? Edman is okay for a fill in–however he’s not full-time…and the SS FA market appears to be fairly slim. What do you see as lifelike choices for the Dodgers at SS?
3:12
Jason Martinez: Mookie because the SS didn’t go nice final season and, but, they are saying they’re doing it once more. So I’m going to take their phrase for it. And in addition belief that Mookie is aware of it didn’t go effectively and he’s the type of participant that can put within the work to enhance. There weren’t very many choices in the event that they weren’t keen to go all in on Willy Adames so I feel they figured this was one of the best route. At the least for 2025.
3:13
Dodgers Blue: Are you shopping for Clay Holmes, Beginning Pitcher? Rumors are Mets are nonetheless FA Market – they usually have already got Megill/Peterson (each with 1 possibility left) and who seemed fairly good final yr, and Blackburn/Canning (each with no choices left). I get none of those names are game-changers, however particularly IF the Mets signal one other locked in rotation arm to go along with Montas and Senga, which guys are the odd males out on this equation?
3:14
Jon Becker: It sounds just like the Mets have a plan for him and it’s not simply “we’re going to stretch you out and see what occurs” so certain, I purchase it. I feel Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes have 4 spots, they usually may go to a six-man. So two spots for Blackburn, Canning, and Megill. Blackburn might be traded and both or each of the latter two may find yourself within the bullpen, although
3:14
Jules: Jason, do the Astros commerce Framber Valdez for OF?
3:15
Jason Martinez: No, I nonetheless don’t suppose the plan was to commerce each. They’ll preserve Framber and wait out the free agent marketplace for an OF. Jesse Winker is smart. Possibly Alex Verdugo. David Peralta was actually good final season. All could be good suits in LF.
3:16
YorDaddy: I do know the Dodgers simply gained with just about wire to wire dominance, however with this new “half the groups make the playoffs” period of MLB, do you see team-building dynamics change a bit the place extra “okay” groups attempt to marginally enhance to a 85-90 win group, sneak into the playoffs, and make some noise ala 2023 Rangers?
3:17
Jon Becker: I feel we’re already seeing much more of this, which appears to be good for gamers getting signed sooner/to larger contracts, in addition to gamers eager to go someplace there’s an affordable expectation of them profitable. The Marlins and White Sox are the one two groups with no actual intention of profitable in 2025, and I feel there could be fairly a number of extra if there have been solely 8 or 10 playoff groups.
3:18
josh: i is perhaps within the minority, however i actually like what the astros have accomplished. The primary possibility would have been to increase Tucker and Bregman, however because the proprietor is unwilling to try this, this plan appeared the subsequent best choice. They elevated MLB and prospect depth and now have payroll flexibility subsequent yr and past. From a useful resource allocation/roster constructing perspective, all of it is smart. Am I loopy?
3:20
Jason Martinez: They’ve been to the playoffs in 9 of the final 10 seasons and have two WS rings throughout that span. It’s not that they don’t make unhealthy strikes however they’ve accomplished what most groups can solely hope to do. Be a playoff contender each season. Undecided I just like the return for Tucker, however I don’t fault them for making the commerce.
3:20
Justin: Do both of you’ve gotten a digital corridor of fame poll that you simply’d prefer to share? Thanks!
3:22
Jason Martinez: My reply is boring as a result of I don’t actually have any points with voting in any of the fellows who’re possible going to fall brief or will go all the way down to the tenth season (Wagner, Abreu, Buehrle, Utley, and so on). Let all of them in!
3:22
Dodgers Blue: Braves BP on the floor appears like they need assistance. IF throughout ST, a man like Waldrep appears lights out, do you think about him for a significant huge league ‘pen position – or just let him proceed to develop as a starter on the farm?
3:25
Jason Martinez: Appears like they’re hoping Daysbel takes a step foward and locks down a high-leverage position. Relying on how issues shake out, I feel Holmes may find yourself as a really worthwhile bullpen arm if he’s not wanted within the rotation. Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have the potential to dominate out of the ‘pen however they’d must drive the Braves’ hand. I feel they’re wonderful letting them proceed to develop as starters.
3:25
Determined pirates fan: How do you suppose enjoying time is split at catcher for the pirates? Does probably the most RF enjoying time go to a participant at present within the org or somebody but to be signed?
3:27
Jason Martinez: Depends upon how Endy appears as he returns from TJ surgical procedure. My present projection … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … assumes that he’ll must be eased again on protection however his bat must be within the lineup. He can hit! Thus, Endy at DH and Jason Delay because the backup catcher. Solely factor we all know at this level is that Joey Bart earned the beginning job and must be in line for at the very least 55% of the begins they usually actually like Delay in a backup position.
3:27
Daniel: The Padres are eerily quiet, but as at all times, their roster is… eccentric. Any pathways ahead that make sense for them?
3:31
Jason Martinez: Aside from the Soto commerce that had a predictable commerce companion and return, they did nearly nothing final offseason both. Waited till the final minute to convey again Profar for $1MM after which didn’t commerce for Stop till they had been about to depart for the Dodgers collection in South Korea. I used to be afraid this was going to occur however my guess is that they need to keep beneath the luxurious tax threshold they usually’re already proper up towards it. It’s potential they will’t do something until they commerce Stop and/or Arraez. And it’s potential that they’ll wait till the Sasaki resolution earlier than they do something in any respect.
3:32
RosterResource Fan: Simply wished to say Thank You! The Roster Useful resource is considered one of my favourite components of the subscription. I used it greater than Leaderboards because of the Walkoff.
3:34
Jason Martinez: Thanks for studying! It’s at all times good to know that different individuals out on this planet love these things as a lot as I do. And it’s the rationale why that is my job now.
3:35
Jason Martinez: That’ll do it for right this moment. Benefit from the vacation and we’ll be again subsequent Friday for some post-Xmas/pre-New Yr’s baseball speak.
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