RosterResource Chat – 11/29/24

2:01

Jason Martinez: Welcome to our 2nd RosterResource Stay Chat! Thanks for becoming a member of us. Not rather a lot has occurred since final week apart from the Snell/Kikuchi signings and largely unsurprising non-tenders. Nonetheless a whole lot of enjoyable matters to debate. Right here we go …

2:01

Matt: Bellinger opting in has put a little bit of a wrinkle into Jed’s offseason plans. In case you have been Hoyer, how would you method bettering the offense , whereas attempting to provide some room for a few of their top-100,guys to emerge?

2:03

Jon Becker: This actually wasn’t perfect for Hoyer, who would definitely somewhat have the Bellinger cash to spend elsewhere, to not point out the plate appearances. Bettering the offense might be powerful outdoors of simply hoping for inner enhancements — the plain lane for that might have been to commerce Hoerner, however his surgical procedure complicates issues — or buying and selling Bellinger himself (additionally tough!). A catcher with offensive upside (Sánchez, Higashioka, and many others.) to pair with Amaya is the one place they will add a starter with out buying and selling another person.

2:03

NT: Have heard nothing concerning the Twins. The place do you assume they should improve and the way do you assume they do it? Any probability of a Correa commerce in your estimation?

2:06

Jason Martinez: I don’t assume Correa might be traded. Would take a whole lot of creativity and both the Twins consuming a whole lot of $ or taking up one other huge contract in return. And that’s powerful to do. Would like to see it. I believe there are a couple of others groups in the identical boat.

They’ve to determine a technique to construct a workforce that’s aggressive whereas not relying on Correa/Buxton/Lewis. And something these guys can contribute is a bonus. Brooks Lee and a number of the different kids stepping up might be large. Identical with pitching. A lot of kids who can take the subsequent step.

2:07

Jon Becker: It’s undoubtedly going to be a quiet offseason for them, a lot in order that it wouldn’t in any respect shock me to see them rank thirtieth in FA spending. Inside enhancements + including on the margins (RH OF, a lefty reliever) will in all probability be about it for them.

2:07

TD: How do you assume the Padres will method the low season, contemplating that they’re at the moment up towards the luxurious tax?

2:09

Jon Becker: They don’t have a Juan Soto-level contract to maneuver to concurrently decrease payroll and infuse expertise; Arraez wouldn’t convey again all that a lot, Cronenworth and Bogaerts are near un-trade-able, and many others. I believe they principally should decide to being a luxurious tax payor since we have already got them projected at $3M over (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres) they usually desperately want a catcher and left fielder, at minimal.

2:09

Visitor: Has there been any dialogue about assuming much less optimistic PAs within the Depth Chart projections? In that case, what’s the reasoning for this assumption?

2:12

Jason Martinez: I really like discussing this matter however that is in all probability not the very best place to provide the very best reply. Higher for extra particular gamers. However I’ll say that they are often much less optimistic for beginning pitching prospects. That’s as a result of we solely venture 100% despite the fact that it must be extra like 125% simply because we all know for positive there might be accidents. We simply can’t assume who will get damage. For place gamers, I believe they are often too optimistic as a result of my definition of “injury-prone” is perhaps completely different than others.

So I’d take a look at it the pitchers extra like a depth chart order. Who’s subsequent in line if one of many high 5 is out for the season? For place gamers, when ought to Royce Lewis be thought-about “injury-prone” and penciled in for 75-80% as a substitute of 85-90%? He was 25 years previous final season and had a couple of freak accidents so I didn’t assume he was “injury-prone” but. I used to be in all probability unsuitable.

2:13

BuccoFan: Do you agree that the Pirates could be higher off spending $30M on one or two distinction makers, as a substitute on 6 or 7 guys that inevitably will end round alternative degree?

2:14

Jon Becker: Positively, sure. The pitching appears fairly good however they badly want an precise menace in the midst of the lineup, not one other Grandal + Taylor + Tellez “let’s hope for enhancements” offseason. Bringing McCutchen again really feel like a given and together with that I’d look into FA like Walker, Santander, and O’Neill, if I used to be Ben Cherington.

2:15

MilledgeReport: The Cardinals chosen Tink Therefore’s contract from AA this week. Do you guys anticipate he makes his MLB debut this yr, or is he somebody who wants extra time build up innings within the minors?

2:17

Jason Martinez: He’s gifted sufficient to drive his approach into the combination. However I doubt the Cardinals are relying on it. Solely 79.2 IP final season. Perhaps he can attain 130 IP this season. If that’s the case, do they carry him up early till they should shut him down? Do they carry him alongside very slowly in case he can assist them within the 2nd half? Too many unknowns for the Cardinals to imagine both of these situations. I believe they simply hope he continues to progress and never fear about when to name him up.

2:18

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t assume “wants extra time build up innings” and “makes his MLB debut” should be mutually unique both. Taking a look at how the White Sox dealt with Crochet down the stretch, the Cardinals might name Therefore up when rosters broaden to get him on an every-fifth-day schedule, however restrict him to 3 innings apiece.

2:18

Visitor: Have the Dodgers utterly given up on Lux as a SS?

2:19

Jon Becker: It wouldn’t shock me if they provide him a shot there in Spring Coaching, however the throwing actually did look tough earlier than they flipped him and Betts on the very finish of Spring Coaching this previous season. Having the ability to platoon at quick with Rojas and having Betts play 2B, the place he’d higher, would make issues simpler for positive. Or they might simply signal Adames, in fact.

2:19

White Sox: Any explicit low value free brokers that might be into some enjoying time? Crochet possible fetching two High 100s?

2:24

Jason Martinez: 2 High 100 prospects is what it might take to begin a dialog. Purple Sox should be the favourite however I believe there are a couple of different groups who could be prepared.

Free Agent market is stuffed with these low-cost veterans … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

However why would they need to play for the White Sox? Provided that it’s their greatest probability at common enjoying time. I believe there’s room for 2 bats (OF/DH), 2 SP, and some RPs. Perhaps a David Peralta or Randal Grichuk. Perhaps a Cal Quantrill or Griffin Canning.

2:25

Jon Becker: I’ll additionally throw Sócrates Brito in there, solely as a result of Jon Heyman reported this morning he’s getting MLB curiosity, and veterans getting back from the KBO is enjoyable!

2:25

Seattle_54percenters: What lifelike choices for Mariners at 3B, 2B, and 1B/DH? Possession prefers earnings to successful sadly:/

2:27

Jon Becker: I completely get why folks need to tie them to gamers like Alonso and Bregman, however Dipoto and possession have simply by no means operated in that stratosphere for FA. I do assume they’ll nonetheless be some good gamers, although. Gleyber, Profar, Joc, Conforto come to thoughts, they usually’ve acquired reported curiosity in a reunion with Justin Turner or Carlos Santana.

2:27

Matt (Oceanside): I noticed you’ve Mookie listed because the Dodgers beginning SS. Along with his poor metrics there final season after the shock change from second. He had spent all of the final offseason prepping for a return to 2B- doesn’t that recommend that 2B is his most blatant place and both buying and selling Lux or attempting Lux once more at SS after an extended time away from the knee surgical procedures?

2:29

Jason Martinez: It’s a type of tough issues to speak on the RR Opening Day roster projection. Mookie is enjoying infield. We all know that for positive. And I don’t assume they’re going to provide Lux one other probability at SS, largely as a result of they’re the Dodgers they usually don’t have to enter the season with that degree of uncertainty at an necessary spot. So what that projection tells you is that they don’t have their beginning SS on the roster presently.

2:29

The Closing Boss: Excessive College Reunion in Boston? Giolito + Fried and Flaherty?

2:30

Jon Becker: Positively believable contemplating they’ve been related to only about each huge FA, and in the event that they don’t get Soto (or even when they do, I suppose) I might see them going huge for one or two vital SP. Must share the within jokes with Houck and Bello, although.

2:30

friday scaries: Tim Tawa and Joe Elbis struck me as attention-grabbing 40 man additions for a probable playoff contender, what do you make of them?

2:33

Jason Martinez: Tawa has put up good offensive numbers within the higher minors and he can play a number of positions (INF and OF). So I believe he’s only a man who would possible be widespread within the R5 draft and the Dbacks didn’t need to lose him. Elbis might be in the same place. Not a high prospect with the big-time arm, however appears like he has good command and groups might in all probability see him as a succesful lengthy reliever in 2025.

2:33

Matt: Assume Cubs extra prone to go FA signing of vet with out QO connected , with the intention to improve SP, or will they give the impression of being to commerce mkt(SEA?)?

2:35

Jon Becker: If they will line up with the White Sox for Crochet or the Mariners for a starter, they actually have the upper-level influence prospects to make a commerce really feel just like the “simpler” lane. In the event that they’re not curious about starters with QOs connected, the one high of the rotation (or near it) choices are Flaherty, Eovaldi, or an upside play on Bieber, who gained’t be prepared for the beginning of the season.

2:35

David Stearns: Prediction on who the Mets signal this offseason? Is also Taylor actually gonna begin over Siri?

2:37

Jason Martinez: I do know it in all probability looks as if Siri would begin in CF, however he was actually, actually, actually dangerous in 2024. And in lots of elements of earlier seasons. And Taylor was excellent whereas enjoying usually on the finish of the season. I don’t assume both will begin, although.

Jon and I each predicted final week that Soto would signal with the Mets, which might possible push Nimmo to CF. And in the event that they fall quick on Soto, I believe they’ll get somebody like Teoscar or Santander. I additionally assume they’re going to re-sign Pete Alonso. Cohen isn’t messing round this offseason.

2:39

Jon Becker: And even when that is the outfielders they’ve acquired going into the season, I don’t assume one’s going to play far more than the opposite. Siri hit fastballs higher than Taylor, Taylor hit every thing else higher, Marte will want days off, and many others. If/after they do add, there are nonetheless going to be loads of PAs to go round, too.

2:39

Rywe: What do you assume the Giants plan to do that offseason contemplating they’ve publicly mentioned they’re reducing payroll for 2025? I doubt Buster is gonna break the financial institution for a high-tier free agent and the Giants have so many holes to fill (SP, SS, 2B)

2:41

Jon Becker: The payroll reducing takes them out of the working for Soto, with whom they didn’t even meet, however it gained’t stop them from a lot else. They’ve nonetheless acquired about $50M to spend earlier than hitting 2024’s payroll, and there’s rather a lot you are able to do with that (Adames + Fried are in all probability someplace round there in mixed AAV, for instance, not that I anticipate them to do this). They might commerce Yaz to clear up some outfield enjoying time (and money) or commerce Wade and go larger for Alonso or Walker with loads of room to nonetheless say they minimize payroll.

2:41

Rywe: What position does Tyler Fitzgerald have this yr? He was subpar at SS final season however satisfactory at 2B. Utility man that fills in on off days for Jung-Hoo Lee?

2:42

Jason Martinez: Looks like essentially the most logical spot is 2B. Perhaps 1B in the event that they commerce LaMonte Wade Jr. He is also a Zobrist-type utilityman that performs on a regular basis at 4-5 completely different spots. But when they don’t get Adames or Kim, they could have to stay with him at SS.

2:44

Doc Estes: Do you’ve a couple of favourite post-hype prospects that will make a big influence in 2025?

2:45

Jon Becker: Does Jackson Holliday depend as post-hype but? Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse for him on the plate, and he appeared fairly tough at second base, too, however the toe faucet he labored in over the past week of the season appeared to work out properly. I don’t assume the O’s are going to accumulate anybody to dam him, both.

2:45

Jonathan: The place will Juan Soto be enjoying in 2025?

2:48

Jason Martinez: As I discussed a couple of questions in the past, Jon and I each predicted NYM in final week’s chat. However, realistically, why would he signal with any workforce apart from the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees? Phillies in all probability belong in that group, as properly. He’s going to signal a 15-year deal and he is aware of that these groups are going to attempt to win yearly. Purple Sox might persuade him that they’ll do the identical. Perhaps the Blue Jays. May the Nats persuade him that they plan to spend $ and be aggressive for the subsequent 15 years? Perhaps. However he’s Juan Soto. He doesn’t should go together with “perhaps”. He is aware of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees are going to spend each offseason to construct round him.

2:49

Jon Becker: That’s an enormous a part of why I don’t assume the Blue Jays have a lot of a shot except they blow all the opposite presents out of the water, which I don’t assume goes to occur, both. The promoting level is… the final yr of Vlad Jr. and a potentially-closing window with out a lot in the way in which of prospects on the way in which?

2:49

Coach73: May You speculate on the groups that would use Gleyber torres?

2:50

Jon Becker: I believe there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity in him as a bounce again choice, despite the fact that he’s restricted to 2B and isn’t notably good at enjoying there, both. I discussed the Mariners earlier however the Purple Sox additionally make a whole lot of sense, and the Blue Jays are reportedly , too. Perhaps somebody just like the Marlins jumps in for a one-year supply if the multi-year contract presents aren’t wanting nice.

2:50

Blair: What SP will the Mets attempt to purchase by way of commerce? Is Luis Castillo a practical choice?

2:53

Jason Martinez: The Mariners are one of many few groups that may afford to commerce considered one of their greatest beginning pitchers so I believe it’s lifelike. However, even then, beginning rotation is the explanation they’re a official contender each season so perhaps they simply don’t need to subtract from that. One potential very attention-grabbing commerce choice, in my view, could possibly be Dylan Stop if the Padres are handcuffed financially this offseason. The worth for beginning pitchers is loopy excessive and Stop could be reasonably priced at round $13-14MM for one season.

2:54

Jon Becker: I uncared for to say Stop earlier after I mentioned they don’t have a Soto-level contract/participant to commerce, and Stop actually isn’t that, however he would convey again fairly the return. They might then flip round and signal a good starter for half as a lot. Martín Pérez pitched properly there after the commerce, for instance.

2:54

Matt: Which of Cubs prepared or near-ready prospects deserve a legit shot this yr?

2:56

Jon Becker: Assuming well being I believe we’ll see Matt Shaw sooner or later this yr, perhaps early on Hoerner has a setback or the offense isn’t clicking. Ballesteros is one other one who might get the decision if Amaya/Thaiss are the 2 catchers and aren’t hitting. On the pitching aspect, a wholesome Cade Horton in all probability debuts sooner or later, too.

2:57

Ben: I’ve questioned this for therefore lengthy however how are the ability rankings measured on RR? I might by no means discover an correct correlation with WAR so I by no means knew.

2:59

Jason Martinez: For batters, it’s in all probability nearer to wRC+ as a result of there is no such thing as a protection included within the components. After which the difficult half is to steadiness out counting stats and price stats so small-sample measurement doesn’t get weighted too closely. Once I created it a very long time in the past, the aim was so {that a} reader might simply get a basic thought of whether or not a participant was having a superb season (general or final 7/14 days) or not after which analysis additional if vital. I believe it really works properly for that.

3:00

Eric: If the Mets signal Juan Soto, do you anticipate them to match their 2024 payroll in 2025 by frequently including?

3:01

Jon Becker: Even in case you determine Soto’s at $50M/yr, spending one other ~$125M on high of that feels actually, actually laborious, however not unattainable. Going aggressive on the rotation (Burnes + Manaea + Flaherty, or one thing like that) remains to be solely $75M or so.

3:01

Coach73: Do you see jonathan aranda making an influence this yr?

3:03

Jason Martinez: Sure, I do. That is his make-or-break season, in my view. He’s out of choices and the Rays haven’t actually given him a lot of a chance. And accidents haven’t helped. As of now, I’ve him penciled in to the beginning lineup … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

I’d love for the Padres to accumulate him, which is feasible if the Rays don’t actually imagine in him as an on a regular basis man. After all, I believe the Padres are obligated to have a couple of gamers from Tijuana on their roster. Tirso Ornelas, Alejandro Kirk, and Aranda would match that aim for me.

3:05

Jason Martinez: Gonna wrap it up now. We’ll be again for one more chat subsequent Friday on the identical time. Have a terrific weekend!

3:05

Jon Becker: Thanks for stopping by, everybody!

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