2:00
Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Reside Chat at FanGraphs! No less than one among us (often each) might be doing this each Friday at the moment.
For those who’re acquainted with me or Jon, I believe that we take pleasure in speaking about something roster-related and can at all times attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not at all times superb for a dwell chat the place you wish to reply as many questions as potential. However having each of us right here will enable us to nonetheless try this as a lot as potential as we alternate answering questions.
And right here we go …
2:01
: Howdy and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…
2:01
: Braves appeared to choose Grant Holmes to a number of these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final yr. You all are considering that modifications over the offseason?
2:02
: So I believe that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that function final yr.
Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility provides the Braves an opportunity to discover the market through the offseason and likewise give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as one among their 13 pitchers.
2:03
Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility provides the Braves an opportunity to discover the market through the offseason and likewise give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as one among their 13 pitchers.
2:03
: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him taking part in? Platoon? vL or vR?
Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays might be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t suppose the Phillies wish to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I believe they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other influence bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.
2:04
Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays might be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t suppose the Phillies wish to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I believe they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other influence bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.
2:05
: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the group tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the group lower the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and if that’s the case, how a lot?
2:06
: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract at this time, then the group has to comply with a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Underneath the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to and not using a listening to are totally assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined through listening to aren’t totally assured. We noticed this final yr with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and had been capable of launch after they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as an alternative of the total contract.
2:07
: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you suppose Christian Moore will get referred to as up? when do you suppose he ought to?
Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how shortly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he received damage. I nonetheless suppose they plan on being aggressive, however it’s extra probably that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.
2:10
Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how shortly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he received damage. I nonetheless suppose they plan on being aggressive, however it’s extra probably that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.
2:10
: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you suppose an org provides him a giant contract?
2:11
: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I believe there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That stated, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a certain factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be stunned if he went elsewhere.
2:11
: Marte get 1st probability at 3b for reds? Or are they buying?
Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection just a few occasions … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered at this time. Possibly Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, what I believe. They’re searching for an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up large numbers in AAA.
2:14
Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection just a few occasions … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered at this time. Possibly Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, what I believe. They’re searching for an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up large numbers in AAA.
2:15
: If I might solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who wouldn’t it be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?
2:15
: Except I’ve received vital motive to imagine in any other case, I at all times aspect with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Actually doesn’t damage he had a extremely robust season, too.
Jason Martinez: I say it’s a must to go along with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.
2:17
Jason Martinez: I say it’s a must to go along with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.
2:17
: Crimson Sox bundle for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?
Jason Martinez: I believe they’ve nearly as good of an opportunity as any group on the market. Seems like they’re going to go large in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Massive 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You in all probability want 2 elite prospects to headline a bundle for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.
2:20
Jason Martinez: I believe they’ve nearly as good of an opportunity as any group on the market. Seems like they’re going to go large in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Massive 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You in all probability want 2 elite prospects to headline a bundle for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.
2:21
: The Reds stated they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent yr. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself trying?
2:22
: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we received earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s potential they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s received to earn taking part in time elsewhere. One other chance is Matt McLain shifting to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.
2:22
: Proper now, we’ve virtually all of Steer’s PT in left, primarily based extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18
2:22
: Suppose the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the choose with Skenes not beginning the yr there
Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose so. Not getting the draft choose will make them suppose twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d suppose they’ll simply observe the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones pressured his approach onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I believe Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to not less than begin the season within the rotation.
2:25
Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose so. Not getting the draft choose will make them suppose twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d suppose they’ll simply observe the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones pressured his approach onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I believe Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to not less than begin the season within the rotation.
2:25
: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?
2:26
: Nootbaar’s at all times greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was really higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this yr), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you wish to name it, there’s no motive to platoon him, neither is there an important platoon associate for him within the org proper now anyway.
2:26
: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?
Jason Martinez: I believe the Crimson Sox are going large this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.
2:29
Jason Martinez: I believe the Crimson Sox are going large this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.
2:30
: Jorge Mateo is an alternative choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins might nicely store Carlos Correa, although they’d must eat some money.
2:31
: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?
2:32
: I’m on the Mets prepare just because they’ll and presumably will supply essentially the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of probably tens of hundreds of thousands to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I believe he clears $600M no drawback.
Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I believe Steve Cohen is prepared to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will rely upon how aggressive different groups might be.
2:34
Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I believe Steve Cohen is prepared to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will rely upon how aggressive different groups might be.
2:34
: What sort of contract do y’all suppose Hyeseong Kim will get?
Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I believe he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I believe it is going to be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case loads.
2:37
Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I believe he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I believe it is going to be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case loads.
Oh sorry!!! I believed you had been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too shortly.
2:39
: Yeah, I believe that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an choose out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I want a shortstop badly on opening day I’d quite be aggressive for Adames, in fact. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I believe he does fairly just like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, perhaps rather less since he’s received loads much less energy potential.
2:39
: Will the Phillies really “shake up the roster” like they stated? If that’s the case, who do you see them buying and selling/shifting?
2:40
: I’m certain they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although shifting even one among them with out consuming a bunch of cash can be fairly miraculous, I’d say. When it comes to gamers who would really garner an fascinating return, I believe Bohm and Stott could possibly be fascinating, perhaps even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are in all probability Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.
2:41
: For those who had been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 yr time-frame?
Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Avenue Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and many others.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is secure there and their lineup will not be terrifying in any respect.
2:46
Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Avenue Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and many others.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is secure there and their lineup will not be terrifying in any respect.
In all seriousness, I do suppose they’re making an attempt to construct a group round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final yr and so they do have just a few younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.
2:47
: Yeah, it looks as if they’re lastly concentrating on fascinating strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as an alternative of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. A giant a part of constructing a group like that’s figuring out who to provide large contracts or extensions to, and so they’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and many others.). The Tovar extension certain seems nice to date, although.
2:48
: Do you suppose that if the Crimson Sox had been supply Seattle a bundle of Duran and one of many large 4, most certainly Mayer, which may lastly get Dipoto to chew on buying and selling one among his pitchers?
2:49
: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t suppose that will fairly sway Dipoto to even think about that a lot in any respect. in case you’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who could possibly be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a more durable time saying no.
2:49
: How shortly does Jordan Lawlar stand up and might he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?
Jason Martinez: I believe he’s the kind of prospect {that a} group will make area for as soon as he exhibits that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a state of affairs the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench function. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH function sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.
2:52
Jason Martinez: I believe he’s the kind of prospect {that a} group will make area for as soon as he exhibits that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a state of affairs the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench function. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH function sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.
2:52
: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?
2:53
: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some robust selections. He’s a superbly ample — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the danger of putting out on different choices and never with the ability to do significantly better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I might see this one going both approach forward of the 8 EST deadline.
2:54
: Will Rodriguez and Bart break up duties in 2025? What % of taking part in time for every.
Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t bear in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on observe to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So it is going to be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they’ll ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the flexibility to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 break up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.
2:57
Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t bear in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on observe to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So it is going to be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they’ll ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the flexibility to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 break up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.
2:58
: We simply received a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis positively is one. Could possibly be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.
2:58
: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason to date? They’ve been very lively, however seemingly with none influence.
2:59
: That is principally the Angels’ M.O. for latest offseasons, going for names over expertise, although not less than with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re not likely taking taking part in time away from somebody extra fascinating. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … fascinating … although.
2:59
: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5
Jason Martinez: I’ll go along with the “over”, though I don’t suppose they’re going to plan their offseason round him being a giant a part of the group. However essential to recollect, previous to his harm, that he’s such prospect that there was speak about shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I believe he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he might drive himself into the image once more.
3:02
Jason Martinez: I’ll go along with the “over”, though I don’t suppose they’re going to plan their offseason round him being a giant a part of the group. However essential to recollect, previous to his harm, that he’s such prospect that there was speak about shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I believe he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he might drive himself into the image once more.
3:04
: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such a protracted season. Have a tricky time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we anticipate, although.
3:04
: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Comfortable Thanksgiving to those that have fun!
Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for at this time since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I believe 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.
3:05
Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for at this time since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I believe 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.
Thanks for becoming a member of us and bear in mind that you could at all times ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).
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