Logan Gilbert is coming off his finest season but, posting a 3.23 ERA and excellent strikeout and stroll charges over a Main League-leading 208 2/3 innings.  The previous 14th general choose has lived as much as the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and whereas he has cemented his place within the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t but a lock for the staff’s future plans.  Adam Jude of the Seattle Occasions experiences that “there was little dialogue a few long-term deal” between the 2 sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”
There are a number of the reason why the shortage of talks shouldn’t increase an alarm for M’s followers.  Gilbert is simply coming into his second 12 months of arbitration eligibility, and he’s underneath staff management via 2027 as a Tremendous Two participant.  Gilbert and the Mariners prevented a listening to final winter by agreeing to a $4.05M wage for 2024, and the right-hander’s massive efficiency this 12 months has put him in line for a projected $8.1M wage in 2025.
These numbers will hold rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert retains pitching nicely in his remaining arb years, however that will nonetheless signify a relative cut price for the Mariners to have ace-level manufacturing of their rotation.  Signing Gilbert to an extension previous to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty via the remainder of his arbitration years and past, and such a deal may nonetheless find yourself being a cut price since Gilbert may simply be getting higher.
The 2024 season noticed Gilbert publish a career-best 27.4% strikeout charge and 31.7% whiff charge, along with his traditional glorious management. Â His 39.3% hard-hit ball charge was additionally the very best of his 4 Main League seasons, and whereas this solely ranked within the forty fourth percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had by no means topped the eleventh percentile in any of his prior three years.
As an entire, Seattle’s rotation is just not solely maybe the very best in baseball but additionally essentially the most cost-effective.  Luis Castillo has the large contract of the bunch within the type of the five-year, $108M extension he signed in September 2022, however Gilbert is coming into his second arb 12 months, George Kirby is projected for $5.5M in his first arb 12 months, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are nonetheless of their pre-arbitration years.  Former sixth general choose Emerson Hancock hasn’t proven a lot over his 72 2/3 profession MLB innings, however he’s one other promising younger arm that will’ve gotten an extended look in just about any rotation that didn’t have such high quality and sturdiness.
This abundance of pitching expertise is nice for the Mariners in some ways, together with the extent of flexibility it offers the staff in approaching extension talks.  With a nod to the “you may by no means have sufficient pitching” credo, the M’s don’t essentially must lock up Gilbert as quickly as attainable since so many different proficient hurlers are readily available.  The entire remaining staff management for the non-Castillo pitchers offers the Mariners additional time to weigh their choices about which of the youthful arms (if any) may be long-term cornerstones.  As an example, if the M’s have already seen sufficient from Miller or Woo, signing both to an extension earlier of their careers would come at a decrease value than an extension for Gilbert.
If any of those starters aren’t actually in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a commerce is at all times attainable, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece.  President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the concept that the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, although Dipoto’s stance may soften if one other staff makes a powerful sufficient supply.  Particularly, if that supply comprises a relatively proficient younger hitter with additional years of staff management, shifting a starter for this hitter would assist a Seattle membership in sore want of offensive assist.
This isn’t to say that Gilbert would essentially be the pitcher traded, escalating wage however.  One NL scout informed Jude that “in the event that they must commerce somebody, Miller would take advantage of sense,” although the scout additionally felt “it could be ridiculous for them to commerce any of their starters.”  As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic house/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that different groups could also be cautious that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark.  Castillo is the least doubtless commerce candidate, in line with one supply, as a consequence of his bigger contract and the truth that he’s coming into his age-32 season.