We’ve reached the Divisional Spherical of the NFL postseason. Right here’s a preliminary have a look at our predictions and picks for all 4 video games. The next betting odds are for picks in opposition to the unfold in addition to moneylines primarily based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Divisional Spherical Predictions and Picks
Identical to through the NFL common season, the playoffs characteristic the anticipated, the reasonably sudden, and the utterly sudden. When betting on level spreads and moneylines, we have to concentrate on the primary two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability recreation scripts? Which attention-grabbing subplots might emerge? For instance, we can’t anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the tip zone twice in a single half. However we are able to assess the chance that one crew’s backfield will earn extra scoring alternatives.
With that in thoughts, listed here are our preliminary assessments of how every recreation may proceed.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Date: Saturday, Jan. 21
Begin time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Getting into this season, the final time the Chiefs have been No. 1 in factors per recreation was 2018. Getting into this season, the final time the Chiefs weren’t high 10 in fewest factors in opposition to was additionally 2018. In truth, KC yielded the second-most passing yards and the third-most yards per carry.
Their lack of ability to cease nice offenses contributed to their postseason demise versus Tom Brady and the Patriots, which transformed three Third-and-10s late within the fourth quarter and in time beyond regulation to conquer Kansas Metropolis and advance to the Tremendous Bowl.
This season, the Chiefs are No. 1 in factors scored and No. 16 in factors in opposition to. They’ve surrendered essentially the most passing TDs, however alongside different metrics, they’re stingier in opposition to the run and the go than they have been in 2018 — once they have been oh-so-close to reaching the head of soccer success.
On the one hand, this 12 months’s Chiefs needs to be the favorites to win the title. Their three losses have been by 4 factors or much less. In a single, they misplaced the lead halfway by means of the fourth. Within the different two, their opponents scored their game-winners within the remaining minute.
But, this franchise has struggled in opposition to non-playoff groups, together with two slim victories over Denver, edging the Raiders by a degree, and overcoming Houston in time beyond regulation.
They’ve additionally struggled to shut out groups. Kansas Metropolis’s Week 10 faceoff in opposition to these Jaguars is one instance, by which a 20-0 lead grew to become 27-17, with the Chiefs needing to transform on Third-and-7 after which 4th-and-2 to stall the Jags’ comeback.
Dealing with an more and more assured Jacksonville squad, Kansas Metropolis can’t realistically hope to guide by 20 once more. Sure, their offense seems to be almost unstoppable. However their protection isn’t robust sufficient to show this right into a blowout.
In opposition to-the-spread prediction: JaguarsMoneyline winner: Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) vs. New York Giants
Date: Saturday, Jan. 21
Begin time: 8:15 p.m. ET
This level unfold is giving me heartburn. What number of occasions have I dismissed the Giants as a largely one-dimensional offense with a subpar passing assault and barely middling protection?
And in equity, that’s how they seemed a lot of the common season, when the loss/dismissal of their high 4 preseason WRs “led” to the sixth-fewest passing yards, the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns, and absorbed the fifth-most sacks.
On protection, no crew had fewer interceptions (six), and just one crew (the Chargers) surrendered extra yards per carry (5.2). However someway, a bunch of preseason backup WRs preventing for roster spots have seemed objectively good to nice. By some means, a generational expertise of a working again ravaged by accidents for 2 years has returned to near-elite kind.
And someway, a quarterback whose fifth-year possibility was denied final spring — a man who entered this season with 50 touchdowns and 49 turnovers in 38 profession video games — has defied the legal guidelines of the NFL by changing into the best model of himself, regardless of throwing to one of many least heralded receiving corps in latest league historical past.
Nonetheless, New York’s worst lack of the season (48-22) was in opposition to these Eagles in Week 14. Final season, the Giants’ remaining victory got here in opposition to Philadelphia in Week 12. Daniel Jones missed the remainder of his marketing campaign with a neck harm. Saquon Barkley scored just one extra time the remainder of the way in which. The one different Giants playmaker we’d see on this one — Darius Slayton — had a internet minus 10 yards in that Week 12 victory.
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A lot has modified. The Giants arguably look as robust as they seemed of their Tremendous Bowl-winning 2007 and 2011 seasons.
On that be aware, I’ve been struck by what number of social media personalities referred to the Vikings as “frauds” after shedding to New York final weekend. The Vikings have been 12-0 in video games determined by a landing or much less. They simply might have been 8-9 and out of the playoffs. However they persevered and stepped up time and time once more with the sport on the road.
However they fell brief in opposition to New York. Why? Maybe it has extra to do with the Giants.
And that’s the hazard for Philly in a recreation that, on paper, they need to win comfortably. The Eagles are rested, and their key starters are wholesome (or wholesome sufficient). On the identical time, they’re 7-1 in video games determined by one rating. Much like the Vikings, they simply may need been 11-6 and even 10-7.
It needs to be fairly a battle — and an in depth one at that.
In opposition to-the-spread prediction: GiantsMoneyline winner: Eagles
Buffalo Payments (-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Date: Sunday, Jan. 22
Begin time: 3 p.m. ET
It’s exhausting to know the emotional context of this matchup. Only some weeks in the past, Damar Hamlin suffered a coronary heart assault on the sector and almost died. The ensuing outpouring of humanity and connectivity altered the tenor of the season. What seemingly mattered most on the opening kickoff not mattered.
And now, 35 years after the final time the NFL canceled a regular-season recreation, these identical two groups will reunite in brotherhood and fierce competitors. Two evenly matched and ascending franchises vying for his or her first-ever Tremendous Bowl title. It’s a disgrace just one can transfer on to the AFC Championship Recreation.
It doesn’t bode nicely for Buffalo that they struggled to place away a Dolphins squad beginning a third-string rookie QB and the 49ers’ latest No. 3 RB.
Now, wait, that’s not fully truthful. Jeff Wilson Jr. has performed nicely on this league when wholesome. The Payments bottled him up for 23 yards on 10 carries. Buffalo additionally restricted Skylar Thompson to 220 yards on 45 throws and a paltry 44.7 QB score. Basically, the Payments’ protection did their job.
But, three Josh Allen turnovers (not all his fault, however nonetheless . . .) turned a blowout right into a nail-biter. They will’t advance a lot additional if these errors proceed.
Luckily, the Payments are going through a Bengals squad that may not be as nice as their nine-game successful streak suggests. Seven occasions this season, Joe Mixon has rushed for 3.0 yards per carry or much less whereas netting only one.5 yards after contact. All of us fondly bear in mind his blow-up efficiency in Week 9 versus Carolina. However take away that recreation, and Mixon’s averaging 3.5 yards per carry with 4 touchdowns.
By way of the air, Joe Burrow and his elite-tiered receivers are robust to beat. Nevertheless, Burrow continues to get hit, taking 41 sacks (plus 4 extra on Sunday) after main the league with 51 within the 2021 common season (plus 19 extra within the playoffs).
The Bengals have fewer QB hits on protection than the Dolphins, and the Payments have greater than the Ravens. I count on Burrow to really feel extra warmth — to be beneath extra duress when throwing — than Allen. And that, I consider, will show to be the distinction between a small Cincy upset and a reasonably comfy Payments victory.
In opposition to-the-spread prediction: BillsMoneyline winner: Payments
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Date: Sunday, Jan. 22
Begin time: 6:30 p.m. ET
After selecting the Cowboys to beat Tom Brady for the primary time in franchise historical past, I’m selecting them to return to the NFC Championship Recreation for the primary time in 27 years — the final time they received the Tremendous Bowl.
When Caesars posted the primary betting line for this recreation on Monday evening, it stood at -4.5. I proposed to my PFN colleagues that it will slim to -3 by Wednesday as a result of momentum is a large favor in line setting and market response.
Dallas performed almost flawlessly in opposition to the Bucs, sending Brady to his worst dwelling defeat in additional than two years, and the second-worst dwelling playoff defeat of his profession.
In the meantime, the 49ers seemed human in opposition to the overmatched Seahawks. Seattle had the lead at halftime and was 15 yards away from retaking it on first down late within the third quarter. Credit score the Niners’ sterling protection for making huge performs.
However let’s put some perspective on this upcoming matchup. Each groups have improbable offenses and defenses. The 49ers have one of the best turnover differential, and the Cowboys are shut behind at No. 2. Each groups have catch-friendly backfields and distinctive playmaking receivers.
My perception with the purpose unfold was that the Niners would get the slight edge for taking part in at dwelling. Past that, these are two evenly matched groups. However there are two key areas the place Dallas has the sting.
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First, are we able to anoint Brock Purdy as a “nice” QB alongside Dak Prescott? I’m not. Sure, Purdy deserves all of the accolades he’s getting and extra. However I might argue that he hasn’t confronted an opponent as robust as Dallas. How will the rookie reply?
Second, 16 of San Francisco’s regular-season video games have been in opposition to groups that averaged solely 6.6 wins this 12 months. Their hardest opponent amongst these 16 was the eventual 10-7 Chargers — who confronted the 49ers with out Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Their different recreation was versus their solely Tremendous Bowl-caliber opponent, the Chiefs, which crushed them 44-23.
I might argue that these two issues might be true: (a) the 49ers are an amazing crew, and (b) the Cowboys shall be by far their second-toughest opponent of the season. By the tip of the primary quarter, if we see San Francisco struggling, we’ll know why.
In opposition to-the-spread prediction: CowboysMoneyline winner: Cowboys
