Qualified Catchers Are the Hottest New Trend of the Season

Earlier this week, my colleague Ben Clemens wrote about Marcus Semien and his spectacular sturdiness. As Ben identified, Semien leads the majors in plate appearances during the last 5 seasons, which has helped him to be one of the crucial useful gamers within the recreation regardless of his relative scarcity of standout expertise.

The most efficient catcher throughout that very same time interval has been J.T. Realmuto, who leads his fellow backstops by greater than 5 WAR. He’s additionally method forward of the pack with 2,147 plate appearances; Willson Contreras ranks second with 1,879. On the defensive aspect, the Phillies catcher is equally outpacing his friends. He has performed 4,084 innings behind the dish, 397.2 greater than Martín Maldonado in second place. That’s the equal of 44 full video games, or Austin Hedges‘ 2023 season up to now. Very like Semien, Realmuto encapsulates the favored aphorism “availability is one of the best capacity.” He isn’t one of the best defender or one of the best offensive catcher, however he’s good at every little thing he does, and he does it extra usually than anybody else.

This yr, nonetheless, Realmuto has some competitors on the supply entrance. He nonetheless leads the league in defensive innings and plate appearances as a catcher, however he has extra firm on the leaderboards than normal. To this point in 2023, almost midway into the season, 13 (13!) catchers are certified for the batting title:

You’d need to go all the best way again to 1891 to search out the final season wherein 13 catchers completed with the requisite variety of plate appearances to qualify. Even then, it solely occurred as a result of the Cincinnati Kelly’s Killers shut their doorways partway via the season, and the Milwaukee Brewers (no, not these Milwaukee Brewers) grew to become a significant league franchise with solely 36 video games left to play. Their catcher, John Grim, technically certified for the batting title with simply 121 PA to his title.

The most recent date into the 2022 season that 13 totally different catchers have been certified for the batting title was April 15, simply over every week in. From April 23 onward, there have been by no means greater than eight certified catchers, and from June 22 onward, by no means greater than seven. By the tip of the yr, the variety of certified catchers was down to 5. Solely two certified the yr earlier than, and there haven’t been greater than six certified catchers in a season since 2016.

These two graphs present the variety of certified catchers in every season from 1961 to 2022, on a five-year rolling foundation. The primary presents the variety of catchers per crew, whereas the second reveals the variety of catchers as a share of all certified hitters:

The 2 graphs are virtually an identical, and the principle takeaway needs to be fairly obvious: Recently, catchers have been qualifying at an traditionally low fee, each in uncooked quantity and in comparison with their friends at different positions. From 2017-22, we noticed a mean of 4.17 certified backstops per yr. That’s lower than one for every division.

At occasions, this development has made me marvel if we’d like a separate threshold of qualification for catchers. This hypothetical threshold wouldn’t permit any further gamers to contend for the batting title, however it might present us with a universally agreed-upon taking part in time minimal to make use of when evaluating catchers – not dissimilar to how reduction pitchers have their very own innings minimal for qualification.

Think about this: In 2021, Realmuto ranked final amongst certified catchers in hits, dwelling runs, RBI, batting common, remoted energy, wOBA, xwOBA, and wRC+. He was additionally an All-Star who completed with 4.5 WAR. The phrase “certified catchers” is basically meaningless in that context. The present 3.1 plate look commonplace that works for different place gamers isn’t all the time so helpful behind the plate.

But if the primary 75-ish video games of the 2023 season are any indication, a brand new threshold may not be crucial in any case. Right here’s that checklist of certified catchers once more, with a bit of extra element this time. I’ve additionally tacked on a pair extra gamers who’re tantalizingly near qualification:

That’s an entire lot of catchers with a combating likelihood to qualify by season’s finish. What’s extra, there aren’t many cheapies on the checklist; all however one in all these guys have truly caught at the very least 70% of their video games. Final yr, solely three of 5 certified catchers caught 70% of their video games, and solely Realmuto was behind the dish for greater than 85% of his contests.

We clearly have some distinctive lack-of-injury luck to thank for this phenomenon. Twenty-six massive league catchers have hung out on the injured checklist this season, however the high catchers within the recreation have stored remarkably wholesome. Of the highest 10 catchers by projected plate appearances getting into the season (per our Depth Charts), just one has hung out on the injured checklist: Will Smith, who qualifies anyway. Moreover, of the highest 15 by projected plate appearances at catcher, it’s nonetheless solely Smith who’s been on the IL.

The common DH (and the rising tendency to rotate numerous gamers via the DH spot) can be a major issue, though it’s arduous to say to what diploma. On the one hand, almost all of those catchers have hung out because the DH, serving to them to rack up further at-bats. The 4 catchers with essentially the most plate appearances this yr have all performed at the very least 17 video games at DH. Furthermore, if we solely counted plate appearances at catcher, solely 5 of those guys would nonetheless qualify. That’s not nothing, however neither is it almost as spectacular.

Nonetheless, the opposite 9 certified catchers have spent 9 or fewer video games at DH, and if DH weren’t an possibility, they could have performed a few of these video games behind the plate as an alternative. Moreover, it’s not as if the AL all the time had extra certified catchers earlier than the NL adopted the designated hitter. During the last 30 non-DH seasons, the AL solely had seven extra certified catchers, and the NL truly had a number of extra within the 5 years earlier than the implementation of the common DH:

In different phrases, whereas the common DH isn’t hurting, I’m inclined to present extra credit score to the gamers themselves; we now have the privilege of watching an particularly sturdy cohort of catchers this yr. It’s extremely unlikely that every one 13 will end with sufficient plate appearances to qualify, however individually, every of them has what it takes.

There’s no query that Realmuto and Salvador Perez can qualify for the batting title. Perez has executed so six occasions in his profession, whereas Realmuto has certified seven years straight. Willson Contreras has additionally certified twice earlier than, and in his case, the one query is how usually he’ll play catcher as an alternative of DH. Yasmani Grandal isn’t on tempo to qualify, however he’s executed so thrice earlier than, and he’s acquired a superb likelihood to take action in 2023 so long as his current bout of knee soreness doesn’t flip into a bigger downside.

Sean Murphy and Smith each certified for the primary time final yr, and every is in a robust place to take action once more. They’re the highest two catchers by WAR this season, and the Braves and Dodgers are going to need them on the sphere as a lot as potential. Certainly, it was Smith who first impressed this text, when he fought his method again to certified standing final week after struggling a concussion in mid-April.

The opposite 9 catchers on the checklist would all be first-time qualifiers in 2023. For the sake of this evaluation, let’s additional divide them into two teams: the promising younger names who comprise the following era of gifted catchers, and Elias Díaz.

I don’t imply Díaz any disrespect – fairly the alternative, the truth is. The 32-year-old debuted in 2015 and surpassed rookie limits two years later, however he’s by no means had greater than 381 PA in a season. This yr, he has lastly taken a full-time job, and he has run with it. He’s cooled down considerably after a scorching begin in April and Could, however his 103 wRC+ continues to be robust for his place. He’s been one of the crucial sturdy catchers this season, rating second in video games caught, and he has stayed wholesome all through his profession. With the best way he’s taking part in, the veteran looks like a superb guess to qualify in 2023.

The opposite eight catchers are all 27 or youthful with restricted massive league expertise. It’s a formidable group of names, and it bodes properly for the way forward for the place:

It’s by no means straightforward to foretell what number of video games a younger catcher will play, however most of those guys have already proven off their sturdiness at one level or one other. Keibert Ruiz ranks second amongst catchers in defensive innings, and he was on tempo to qualify final yr till a freak harm ended his season in early September. Adley Rutschman and Shea Langeliers have been each certified final yr from the dates of their respective call-ups onward, and each had greater than 502 PA mixed between the majors and Triple-A.

Cal Raleigh and Jonah Heim have each certified over the previous calendar yr; since June 23, 2022, Heim has 532 PA and Raleigh simply squeaks in with 515. They each established themselves as frontline catchers final season, and so they’re each extraordinarily necessary to their respective golf equipment. These guys will get the prospect to play. Then there’s Tyler Stephenson, who I debated together with on this piece in any respect. Technically, he’s a certified catcher, however he has spent greater than half his season taking part in DH or first base. Nonetheless, with Joey Votto again within the lineup and Spencer Steer hitting so properly, Stephenson may need to catch a bit of extra usually if he desires to get within the lineup for the remainder of the yr.

Lastly, William Contreras and Gabriel Moreno are the largest wild playing cards within the dialog. Contreras set a profession excessive with 427 PA final yr between Triple-A and the majors, whereas Moreno has by no means had greater than 341 PA in a season. Contreras is the second-best hitter in Milwaukee’s lineup, and he ought to get each likelihood to qualify so long as he stays wholesome. Moreno, alternatively, has gotten extra taking part in time than anticipated due to Carson Kelly’s lengthy stint on the injured checklist. Now that Kelly is again on the sphere, the D-backs may take it straightforward with Moreno.

13 catchers are at the moment certified for the speed stat leaderboards, and two extra are shut behind. If all of them attain that magical threshold by season’s finish, this may be a landmark season in catching historical past. Even when solely half of them can pull it off, it might buck a years-long development of catchers taking part in much less and fewer. Both method, it’s a storyline value following for the remainder of the season.