There are some intriguing candidates among the many 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the 12 months betting odds, even in what many thought-about to be a comparatively weak draft class this yr. This award is considerably totally different from among the others in that it’s onerous to drill down which place might take it house. Within the final six years, now we have seen two working backs, two quarterbacks, and two extensive receivers win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months.
Within the article under, we are going to take a look at the present odds for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the 12 months Award, in addition to who our betting analysts imagine will maintain the trophy this yr and who might be the intriguing longshots. On this article, our analysts are PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content material Officer David Bearman, Betting and Fantasy Analysts BJ Rudell and Jason Katz, and FOX Sports activities’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica.
Reside NFL Offensive Rookie of the 12 months Odds
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and proper as of June 16, 2023.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the 12 months Predictions
Wingo: Clearly, the talent set Bijan Robinson (+250) brings to the NFL is eclectic. And with a less-than-certain scenario at QB, head coach Arthur Smith goes to seek out loads of methods to make use of his rookie RB. Keep in mind, Smith was a extremely touted OC in Tennessee earlier than getting the job in Atlanta.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Bryce Younger (+500 at FanDuel) was essentially the most pro-ready QB within the draft due to his potential to course of and make selections rapidly. Now he’ll begin for a crew that’s in a poor division and has some issues to work with on offense. He additionally faces some dangerous defenses proper off the bat, which ought to permit him to have a smoother transition. It’s not an attractive choose, however I believe it’s the neatest one.
Bearman: Fallica made all the great factors about why Bryce Younger is the good choose. Nevertheless, there are going to be rising pains in Carolina, and I’m not bought that he was the perfect QB within the draft to start with. He very nicely might win the award as a result of he performs all 17 video games and has the perfect season of any rookie QB.
Nevertheless, Bijan Robinson (+250) is the place I’m going to place my cash. Arthur Smith is a run-first man and will us Bijan as a three-down again. He has the identical straightforward schedule that Younger has, however I believe Robinson has a greater probability to succeed.
BJ: This yr’s NFL Draft marked the primary time 4 consecutive wideouts have been chosen within the first spherical. The final of those 4 picks was Jordan Addison (+1700), who landed in maybe an excellent spot for a rookie-year breakout.
Whereas oddsmakers and bettors justifiably love Bijan Robinson and different favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months, Addison joins a top-heavy offense that vacated 25% of their 2022 targets (Dalvin Prepare dinner and Adam Thielen). There’s clear 80-1,100-1 potential right here.
Katz: It will be a dereliction of obligation to suggest something aside from Bijan Robinson at +250. Whereas Anthony Richardson is attention-grabbing at +600, it’s troublesome to see any of the quarterbacks profitable it with out taking their groups to the playoffs. Robinson is the perfect working again prospect since Saquon Barkley. He’s bought a three-down talent set and is becoming a member of essentially the most run-heavy offense within the league. He’s actually not an amazing worth, however he’s the most certainly to win it.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the 12 months Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: Maintain your eye on two WRs: Jaxson Smith-Njigba (+900) and Quentin Johnston (+2500). Smith goes to a WR corps in Seattle the place he received’t be the primary focus, which ought to create nice alternatives for him. Johnston has probably the greatest QBs within the recreation who’s trying to get his new WR motion quickly in a gaggle of getting old LA move catchers. Add within the floor presence of Austin Ekeler and Johnston ought to shine.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Quentin Johnston (+2500) fell into an amazing spot with the Chargers. He’s bought probably the greatest QBs within the league and fellow WRs Mike Willaims and Keenan Allen can’t keep on the sector on a constant foundation. He’s going to get loads of appears to be like on this offense, and if a WR once more wins OROY, that is the one I’d again.
Bearman: That is going to be a shot at midnight, however that’s actually the train proper? I really like the weapons in Detroit, and will one thing occur to Jared Goff, former Vol Hendon Hooker (+3000) would step into an amazing scenario. No, I’m not rooting for an harm or anticipating one, however that might be one nice offense for him to step into, and I beloved every part I noticed from Hooker final season till he bought harm.
BJ: The Tennessee Titans are in no man’s land as a franchise, wanting up on the ascending Jaguars and looking out down on the retooling Colts and Texans. On the belief they haven’t any straightforward path to the playoffs, they’re extra seemingly than to not commerce the getting old Derrick Henry for prime greenback and proceed their rebuild forward of 2024 and 2025.
Enter Tyjae Spears (+3000), who brings bell-cow talents (together with sturdy receiving chops). The rookie was drafted within the third spherical for a cause. We’ll see if it performs out this yr or in a future yr when Henry’s formally a post-prime 30-something-year-old.
Katz: In the event you actually need a longshot choose, the one one with even a remotely believable path is Zach Charbonnet at +2500. Just like how Kenneth Walker III gave the 2022 OROY award a run after Rashaad Penny went down, if Walker have been to go down, Charbonnet would see an elevated workload. If issues break proper, he might do one thing comparable, besides he received’t have a Garrett Wilson to compete with at extensive receiver.
Latest Risers and Fallers
The largest riser when it comes to Offensive Rookie of the 12 months odds has been Richardson. Heading into the draft, he sat at round +1500 at some sportsbooks however has dropped to +600 because the third favourite to take house the award. With a touchdown spot in Indianapolis, we might simply see Richardson beginning very early in 2023, tremendously rising his probabilities.
One of many largest fallers of the primary candidates has been Charbonnet after being drafted by the Seahawks. On draft weekend, Charbonnet was at or beneath +2000, however that has now light out to +2500 on DraftKings sportsbook, in addition to being increased somewhere else.
Different fallers of word following draft weekend have been Zay Flowers and Johnston. Flowers has a shot to be a starter from Week 1 within the Baltimore Ravens’ offense, however the run-heavy nature of their recreation plan will restrict his upside. In the meantime, Johnston might discover himself preventing for alternatives with Williams and Allen.
Who Is the Favourite To Win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months?
Robinson has been put in because the clear favourite to win Offensive Rookie of the 12 months at +250. Robinson has landed in a spot the place he might very simply be a Week 1 starter for the Falcons, however he additionally advantages from uncertainty elsewhere on this class.
There’s a lack of readability over how a lot we are going to see of the likes of Younger, C.J. Stroud, and Richardson as rookies. In the meantime, the WR place lacks clear standout choices past Smith-Njigba, who might discover his alternatives restricted in a proficient Seahawks extensive receiver depth chart.
