Predictions: Joshua vs Helenius, Navarrete vs Valdez, more

We’ve obtained an excellent essential occasion on ESPN this weekend, as Emanuel Navarrete faces Oscar Valdez for Navarrete’s WBO 130 lb title, and we even have an enormous title in motion on DAZN, as Anthony Joshua takes on Robert Helenius in London.

So who wins the principle occasions, plus a pair extra fights?

(For those who’re questioning why we’re not doing the SHO fights for picks, it’s as a result of two of them aren’t all that attention-grabbing and there’s too little helpful footage on Melvin Lopez.)

Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez

Scott Christ (68-29)

A extremely intriguing combat, as a result of the Liam Wilson bout confirmed us that Navarrete might have extra bother at 130 than he did at 122 or 126, which is regular and pure. Fighters are getting larger, and albeit, there’s an increasing number of tape (or MP4, I suppose) on Navarrete each time he fights, and he’s been combating commonly on TV for years now. His awkward type is extra scoutable each time he fights.

Valdez is sweet, however I haven’t been horrible enthused with a efficiency of his for a very long time now. When he thrashed Miguel Berchelt, that got here with Berchelt barfing in a bucket to make weight and searching like double-fried nothing within the ring. Oscar has by no means actually regarded nice at 130 apart from that one, and he’s had three fights since. Shakur’s one factor, however laboring by means of wins over Robson Conceicao and Adam Lopez is one other.

I do suppose Valdez can win, although. Simply saying there are extra questions than confidence on either side for me getting into right here. I’m going to go along with Navarrete. Valdez simply appears a bit of shopworn at 32 and he’s been combating his personal pure instincts as a lot as something because the Quigg combat. I believe it’ll be aggressive and good TV, however “Vaquero” will get the W, he’ll simply have a bit of bit extra within the tank and a bit of bit extra will to see out the tough spots and overcome. Navarrete UD-12

Wil Esco (76-21)

On paper I really feel as if it is a combat Emanuel Navarette ought to have the instruments to win given his top and attain benefit. That stated, Navarette fights in an unorthodox type that doesn’t actually see him make the most effective use of these benefits at occasions. As for Valdez, he’s a really proficient fighter who I believe already has lots of mileage on him given the damages he’s taken up to now. I don’t suppose Valdez is a shot fighter or something, however all these dings add up over time. I’m gonna lean in direction of the fighter I believe is a bit of more energizing proper now. Navarrette UD-12

John Hansen (67-30)

Powerful decide between two stable abilities keen to placed on a present, and that’s normally a recipe for a superb combat. Valdez is extra confirmed on the weight than Navarrete, who has solely mouthpieced his well beyond one opponent there. However Valdez is comparatively small for 130 lbs, so how a lot does his expertise there actually matter?

I maintain coming again to Navarrete’s eagerness to combine it up. He’s not a traditional man, not a tactician, and his bodily benefits are solely helpful as long as he retains the combat at vary. How lengthy do we actually suppose that can final? And when issues inevitably transfer in tight, then what occurs? No disrespect to Liam Wilson, but when he might rock and virtually end Navarrete, Valdez can do it, too.

Both Navarrete makes use of his bodily benefits with a endurance and rigor he’s by no means actually proven us earlier than, or Valdez will get the alternatives he wants to finish the combat early. Give me the Valdez we’ve seen earlier than over the Navarrete we by no means actually have. Valdez TKO-9

Patrick Stumberg (73-23)

I want to supply our loyal readers a little bit of perception into my thought course of:

There’s a bit extra to it, particularly the truth that Navarrete spent the primary half of the Wilson combat caught within the mud, however that’s the place I’m at proper now. It actually boils down as to if Navarrete can cope with the test hook; he’s artful sufficient to maintain Valdez on the finish of his punches, however that flash of mortality has me fearful.

I’ve flip-flopped backwards and forwards, however I’ll be an optimist and lean in direction of Navarrete. Now that he’s had some ring time at 130, I anticipate a return to his common output. Between his size and maneuverability and Valdez’s lack of ability to harm opponents who aren’t clearly compromised, I like him to overpower Valdez to a aggressive resolution win. Navarrete UD-12

Anthony Joshua vs Robert Helenius

Scott Christ (68-29)

I might have picked AJ to cease Dillian Whyte. I’ll decide him to cease Helenius. I anticipate a extra aggressive Joshua than we noticed in January, partly as a result of AJ has lots of satisfaction and ate up lots of criticism. Whether or not coach Derrick James says to direct it his approach or not, that’s not going to occur with the common fan and even pundit; the pictures will probably be lobbed on the fighter, not the coach most followers don’t know a lot about.

Helenius has by no means been a top-flight heavyweight and received’t turn into one on Saturday. He had his profession revival when PBC made the cautious administration mistake of placing Adam Kownacki in with him. Respect to the “Nordic Nightmare,” however he can’t beat Joshua. Joshua TKO-4

Wil Esco (76-21)

Late substitute opponents certain might be hell on the A-side at occasions. I don’t suppose that’ll be the case right here, nevertheless, as I simply don’t imagine Robert Helenius is on fairly the identical degree as Anthony Joshua, and I’m undecided about his potential to combat properly on such a fast turnaround at 39 years previous. Certain, Helenius may not have taken a lot harm in any respect final weekend, however his physique will certainly be feeling the results as soon as he’s again in there with an enormous boy who can hit a lot more durable than his final opponent.

I believe Helenius will come to provide it a go, however I simply don’t suppose it’ll be almost adequate to knock off Joshua who’s motivated to work his approach again to the highest. Helenius received’t be onerous to search out, so I think this ends someplace simply after the midway level. Joshua TKO-7

John Hansen (67-30)

Robert Helenius: Pay-Per-View Star, and now a man cashing two paychecks in every week. He’s actually made essentially the most of his wins over Adam Kownacki, and I salute him for it. Time (and journeyman Joe Cusamano) seem to have confirmed that Kownacki is extra totally cooked than the Griswold household Christmas turkey, however Helenius remains to be using that wave into one other essential occasion.

Deontay Wilder wanted lower than three minutes to dispatch him. Let’s assume Helenius is tremendous sharp and prepared this day trip, provided that he actually simply fought final Saturday, and assume he can triple that efficiency in opposition to Joshua. Joshua KO-3

Patrick Stumberg (73-23)

I unreservedly respect Robet Helenius. He was the subsequent huge factor, obtained blown to bits, then clawed his approach again into rivalry. I’m genuinely glad he’s getting back-to-back paydays in opposition to Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua.

Doesn’t imply I believe he’s obtained an opportunity, although. He’s nonetheless sluggish, fragile, and hittable. Getting chin-checked by Wilder might occur to actually any human being on the planet, his different knockout defeats are much less forgivable. Even a mid-identity-crisis Joshua ought to be capable of out-box him and in the end clip him for the end. Hell, I’d favor Joshua even when I knew he’d promote out for the KO like he did within the first Andy Ruiz combat. AJ ends his knockout drought earlier than it might probably hit three years. Joshua KO-4