Picks against the spread for every game

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Falcons basic supervisor Terry Fontenot raised loads of eyebrows when he chosen Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth decide within the draft final spring. It appeared to be an odd alternative, contemplating Atlanta had signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract just some weeks earlier. 

Sunday, we’ll begin to be taught if there was a technique to the insanity because the Falcons, nonetheless in rivalry for the NFC South title at 7-7, change the ineffective Cousins with Penix for his or her dwelling recreation in opposition to the Giants. 

Cousins, 36, gave it an excellent go on a repaired Achilles tendon, however he has change into sluggish and indecisive. He’s most likely the primary cause the Falcons have misplaced 4 of their previous 5 video games, as he’s thrown one landing move, 9 interceptions and been sacked 11 occasions in that span. 

No one actually is aware of whether or not Penix goes to be nice or horrible. Extra possible he’ll be someplace in between. I’m keen to put the 8.5 factors in opposition to the long-gone Giants to search out out. 

Although Penix has thrown simply 5 passes within the NFL, he launched 1,685 of them for 13,741 yards over six faculty seasons at Indiana and Washington. He is aware of what he’s doing, and may have the ability to unlock Atlanta’s offensive weapons — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgeier — higher than Cousins did. 

The decide: Falcons -8.5. 

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS

My first inclination was to experience with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams within the week after their first breakout performances as Jets. In spite of everything, will probably be a really Lambeau-like 24 levels on Sunday at MetLife, and the Rams have been practising in temperatures within the 70s and 80s. 

Throw in that the Jets’ different prime gamers endured the chills in such locations as Ames, Iowa, Madison, Wisc. and Columbus, Ohio, and also you begin to get the thought they could thrive. 

However on the opposite facet of the argument, the Rams are in first place within the NFC West and are desperately making an attempt to carry on to that spot — or any playoff berth. They’ve a QB-coach tandem in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay that has gained a Tremendous Bowl collectively. They usually have a rugged operating assault mixed with a brief, precision passing recreation that shouldn’t be too affected by the situations. 

Saturday 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) over Houston Texans

Must admit I used to be extra excited by taking the Chiefs as +3 dwelling underdogs when it regarded as if Carson Wentz would change Patrick Mahomes. However with Mahomes’ ankle testing, we’re again to that acquainted place of hoping Kansas Metropolis does sufficient to cowl. This time I feel they are going to, because the quantity’s a bit lighter than normal and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will get after a pedestrian Houston offense that has a difficulty with Joe Mixon’s availability. 

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6) over Steelers

This unfold would possibly look awfully giant for this AFC North matchup and it’s all the time tempting to facet with Mike Tomlin as an underdog, the place he’s nonetheless overlaying at 65.5 % even after final week’s 27-13 loss in Philadelphia. Nevertheless, accidents are beginning to chisel away on the Steelers. With out George Pickens, the offense has disappeared, averaging simply 215 yards per recreation prior to now two weeks. T.J. Watt has a nasty ankle however he doesn’t have an damage designation for this recreation. 

Sunday

Detroit Lions (-6.5) over CHICAGO BEARS

Not worrying an excessive amount of about some chilly, wet Chicago climate, the absence of David Montgomery or the gathering of accidents to Detroit’s protection. The Lions are preventing it out with the Eagles and Vikings at 12-2 within the NFC, and so they have greater than sufficient firepower to distance themselves from a Bears staff that’s averaged 14.75 ppg in its eight-game skid. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns

Of their previous six video games, the Bengals have averaged 34 ppg. They’re simply 3-3 in that span however now go dwelling to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson because the Browns’ third try as a beginning quarterback. Simply should hope Myles Garrett doesn’t get a clear shot at banged-up Joe Burrow. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans

Tennessee, an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS, switches from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. Although that could be an improve, the Titans have damage considerations with Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Appears like an affordable quantity to again Shane Steichen, who’s 8-4 ATS as a favourite with the Colts. 

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

The Commanders had a 10-3 lead within the third quarter at Philly on Nov. 14 earlier than Saquon Barkley went bonkers and the Eagles prevailed, 26-18. Don’t thoughts backing Jayden Daniels and the house ’canine in a revenge divisional spot. 

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Carolina was on a pleasant run of 5 underdog covers in a row however bought dragged as a favourite by Dallas final week, permitting 149 speeding yards to Rico Dowdle and three landing passes by Cooper Rush. On the lookout for James Conner and Kyler Murray to choose up the place the Cowboys left off. 

Minnesota Vikings (-3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seattle had gained 4 in a row earlier than getting dismantled at dwelling by the Packers, 30-13, on Sunday evening. Geno Smith, who left with a knee damage, will play however may very well be hampered. Operating backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have been coping with accidents, with Walker lacking the final two video games and Charbonnet struggling an indirect damage. Robust spot in opposition to a Brian Flores protection and Justin Jefferson offense. 

BUFFALO BILLS (-14) over New England Patriots

After overlaying with the Ravens at -16.5 final week, I really feel a bit extra emboldened to put a giant quantity like this. The forecast for Orchard Park is 17 levels with an opportunity of snow. Josh Allen and the Payments snicker at these situations. I determine it’s the final place a 3-11 opponent wish to spend three hours. 

San Francisco 49ers (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami’s midweek damage checklist contained Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Terron Armstead, with Waddle being listed as uncertain to play. The Niners have had related considerations all season, however I’m relying on Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel & Co. to be heard from once more earlier than it’s throughout. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Jaguars look to be a staff that’s nonetheless competing and is considerably competent offensively, led by WR Brian Thomas Jr. They need to bounce at this opportunity for a uncommon win in opposition to the Raiders, who just about are already stocking the draft warfare room with meals and drinks. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over DALLAS COWBOYS

Two issues struck me concerning the Bucs’ win over the Chargers final week. One, Baker Mayfield actually is aware of the way to use Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. And two, they hit more durable than any protection I’ve seen this season. I don’t consider the Cowboys are going to be up for 3 hours of bodily punishment. 

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

New Orleans Saints (+14.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Saints have coated three of their previous 5 spreads and haven’t misplaced by greater than a landing since a string of 4 double-digit losses from Weeks 5-8. I don’t see them as a bottom-of-the-barrel staff within the Giants-Titans-Raiders class. And although the Packers want the sport, there’s no actual urgency to beat the Saints by this a lot. 

BEST BETS: Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals. 

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Jaguars (Locks 8-7 in 2024). 

LAST WEEK: 8-8 general, 1-2 Greatest Bets. 

THURSDAY: Broncos (L).