Amidst all of the headlines final fall in regards to the Phillies’ postseason run, maybe the repetition of the phrase had a unconscious affect on the group. Phillies? Postseason? Run! Which may clarify why they’ve been taking these phrases so actually this October.
In 4 postseason video games, the Phillies have stolen 9 bases on ten makes an attempt. They’ve superior on 5 wild pitches, one failed pickoff, and a lofty throw that wound up in middle discipline. Bryce Harper legged out an infield single; Nick Castellanos stretched a bloop hit right into a double. Trea Turner hasn’t stopped transferring in over every week. Most just lately and most dramatically, Harper ran his means right into a game-ending fly-out/throw-out double play at first base, in an aggressive little bit of baserunning that wasn’t almost as silly because the Gameday description would have you ever consider.
It’s not as if we’re seeing a baserunning bonanza throughout the board, both. In reality, the Phillies are doing greater than their fair proportion to carry up the postseason stolen base charge. Within the common season, the league averaged 1.44 steals per sport. Up to now within the wild card and division collection, we’ve seen 22 stolen bases in 18 contests, a mean of only one.22 per sport. That’s nonetheless up from final yr, when the league averaged 1.02 steals per sport throughout the season and 0.85 within the playoffs. However for those who take away the Phillies and their 9 stolen luggage, the general numbers take a fairly large hit:
Steals Per Sport
Timeframe
With Phillies
With out Phillies
2023 Season
1.44
1.43
2023 Playoffs
1.22
0.76
Stolen Base Makes an attempt Per Sport
Timeframe
With Phillies
With out Phillies
2023 Season
1.80
1.79
2023 Playoffs
1.61
1.06
Stolen Base Success Charge
Timeframe
With Phillies
With out Phillies
2023 Season
80.2%
80%
2023 Playoffs
75.9%
68.4%
9 steals in ten makes an attempt throughout 4 video games is already spectacular sufficient, and all of the extra so when these 9 swiped luggage account for over 40% of league-wide steals all through the playoffs. The Phillies have additionally taken a number of extra bases on wild pitches and errors, they usually deserve extra credit score for these occasions than the field rating provides them.
Of the 5 wild pitches the Phillies have seen (no different group has seen greater than two), just one actually acquired away from the catcher. Two had been shut sufficient to warrant a throw all the way down to second, and the opposite two may need led to throws if the Phillies hadn’t gotten such good jumps. If Turner, Bryson Stott, and Johan Rojas (twice!) hadn’t learn these 4 misplays so nicely, the official scorer would have had no motive to situation a wild pitch:
On prime of that, Philadelphia has additionally taken an additional bag on a few throwing errors. The primary, a pickoff try that Spencer Strider lobbed into the stands, solely occurred as a result of he was desperately attempting to regulate the working sport. Harper courted a pickoff throw and reaped the rewards.
The second, a futile try by Travis d’Arnaud to catch Castellanos stealing, sailed over the pinnacle of Orlando Arcia at second base. Removed from a quick runner, Castellanos acquired such a superb leap that he compelled d’Arnaud to make a hasty throw from his knees, then learn the overthrow nicely and superior to 3rd base. Each Harper and Castellanos would go on to attain due to a few extra shows of aggressive baserunning:
The Phillies have a number of quick runners on their roster — Turner, Stott, Rojas, and Brandon Marsh chief amongst them. Nonetheless, that doesn’t appear to be fairly sufficient to elucidate all of the working. Each participant within the lineup has made an aggressive selection on the basepaths, from Cristian Pache to Kyle Schwarber. The speedsters are placing stress on opposing pitchers, and the slower movers are taking benefit after they can. Supervisor Rob Thomson hasn’t let an excessive amount of slip about his technique, however the explicit baseball platitudes he used after Sport 2 on Monday recommend he’s acquired aggressive baserunning on the thoughts: “Getting further bases is crucial. Stepping into scoring place, going first to 3rd, getting a dirt-ball learn. We’ve been doing lots of good issues with that.”
Towards Strider, the hardest starter the Phillies have confronted (to not point out the one right-hander), they had been relentless, even with Gold Glove catcher Sean Murphy behind the dish. Along with stealing bases and courting pickoff makes an attempt, they had been equally aggressive on balls in play. The aggression didn’t all the time repay — J.T. Realmuto was caught stealing second, and Schwarber was erased on an ill-advised try to succeed in third — however they’re pushing their daring technique to the restrict. Certainly, the profitable steals greater than made up for the one one which failed, and a superb run from Turner erased Schwarber’s baserunning gaffe.
Understandably, the Phillies had been much less inclined to steal with southpaws Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Max Fried on the mound. Nonetheless, their aggressive strategy by no means disappeared. Whether or not it was capitalizing on wild pitches towards the Marlins’ weak-armed catchers, stretching singles into doubles, or difficult the outfielders on shut performs on the plate, the Phillies did all of it. Once more, it didn’t all the time work of their favor; Castellanos was the sufferer of a robust throw from Jazz Chisholm Jr. in middle discipline that nabbed him attempting to attain. However that’s the price of doing enterprise. That individual ship from third coach Dusty Wathan may need been a mistake, however it was half of a bigger technique that has paid off most of the time. And sure, that technique additionally contains Harper’s controversial double play to finish Sport 2.
With the Phillies down by one within the prime of the ninth, Harper walked to steer off the inning. He watched Realmuto fly out to middle discipline for out primary. The following batter, Castellanos, hit a a lot deeper shot to middle discipline. It seemed prefer it had an opportunity to be the go-ahead dwelling run, and if it fell a bit quick, it might’ve been a game-tying double. However for Harper to beat a throw from wonderful defender Michael Harris II, he was going to wish a superb lead; he couldn’t simply wait by the bag and rating from first after the ball bounced off the wall. So he ran previous second, placing himself in good place to attain the tying run. Sadly for Philadelphia, Harris made a spectacular catch, and due to an equally spectacular cut-off throw from Austin Riley, Atlanta pulled off the double play.
If Harper hadn’t strayed so removed from first, he might’ve made it again in time, and Philadelphia would have had another out to get again within the sport. But when he hadn’t taken such an enormous flip round second, he won’t have been in a position to rating had the ball dropped. Certainly, the truth that Harris and Riley made such a fantastic play is convincing proof that Harper wanted a big result in rating towards the Braves’ protection. Ultimately, he acquired caught taking part in the odds. He determined that his group’s possibilities of profitable if Harris didn’t catch the ball had been far larger than their possibilities of profitable with two outs and a runner on first. He sacrificed that closing out to take advantage of his finest alternative. Generally, selections like that gained’t work out, however that doesn’t make these selections flawed. Harper might’ve punted on the fourth down; as an alternative, he gambled on a a lot greater reward:
Amusingly sufficient, as aggressive because the Phillies have been, their third base coach has additionally drawn criticism for not one, not two, however three separate cease indicators. Contemplating the group’s total strategy on the bases, it’s honest to surprise if Wathan is sending blended messages to his gamers. Schwarber definitely appears to suppose so on the finish of this clip:
In Sport 1 of the wild card spherical, Wathan held Schwarber at third when he may need tagged and scored on a lineout. In Sport 2 of the NLDS, he held Alec Bohm at third on a base hit to the outfield. Neither would find yourself scoring. In the meantime, Wathan additionally tried to carry Harper at third towards the Marlins, however the celebrity blazed previous the cease signal, simply beating the throw. In hindsight, holding Schwarber was questionable, holding Bohm was extra defensible, and attempting to cease Harper was clearly a mistake.
All that being stated, it feels overly easy to say that Wathan is taking part in issues too protected. At different instances over the previous 4 video games, the Phillies have proven aggression approaching, rounding, and leaving third base. It additionally feels untimely to criticize Wathan too closely, given the group’s total success on the bases throughout the playoffs and the common season. Based on the numbers at Baseball Savant, the Phillies had been above common at taking further bases this yr, each on the entire and particularly on performs involving third base. They had been additionally probably the greatest groups at understanding when to carry, per Savant. What’s extra, they stole third in amount and with effectivity, swiping that individual bag 21 instances with an 87.5% success charge.
Contemplating Wathan’s selections and a few feedback from Thomson, it looks as if the Phillies are working with a totally predetermined baserunning technique; it’s nonetheless aggressive, however it’s premeditated aggression. They’ll wreak havoc with Strider on the mound or Nick Fortes behind the dish, however they don’t need to check Jesús Sánchez in proper discipline or take a danger with lower than two outs and Stott (their finest contact hitter) due up. Whereas Wathan might, maybe, learn particular person conditions a bit higher and deviate from his sport plan once in a while, there’s no denying that the Phillies’ strategy to baserunning has labored most of the time.
The Phillies have a strong lineup, a few top-tier starters, and one of many deepest bullpens within the Nationwide League. Nonetheless, they’ll must reap the benefits of each alternative they get in the event that they’re going to upset the 104-win Braves. 4 video games into the playoffs, their aggressive baserunning is an indication they’re ready to do exactly that.