With 5 hits in a three-game span towards the Diamondbacks and Mets, Paul Goldschmidt lastly bought off the interstate — to make use of former All-Star-turned-broadcaster Ken Singleton’s memorable time period for hitters with a batting common under .200 — however as the tip of April approaches, the 36-year-old first baseman has nonetheless produced at a sub-replacement stage to this point. It’s early, however he’s bought some firm in that division amongst former All-Stars, in addition to some high-profile free brokers each previous and future.
Goldschmidt received the Nationwide League MVP award in 2022, hitting a strong .317/.404/.578 with 35 homers; he led the league in each slugging proportion and wRC+ (176) whereas totaling 6.9 WAR. His worth slipped to about half of that final season (3.4 WAR) as he batted .268/.363/.447 (122 wRC+) with 25 homers — respectable by most requirements, however the lowest slugging proportion of his 13-year profession to that time. Proper now, each he and the Cardinals would gladly accept that batting line, as he’s hitting simply .208/.304/.287 with two homers, a 74 wRC+, and -0.3 WAR.
Goldschmidt is hardly the Cardinals’ solely hitter who’s struggling. Final week, the staff optioned Jordan Walker, who was carrying a .155/.239/.259 (44 wRC+) line, again to Triple-A Memphis, however that hasn’t precisely cleared up the issue. Nolan Gorman (77 wRC+) and Lars Nootbaar (81 wRC+) have been horrible as effectively, and their middle fielders, Michael Siani and the since-demoted Victor Scott II, have mixed to “hit” .095/.170/.131 (-7 wRC+) en path to a internet -1.0 WAR. Small marvel the staff is second-to-last within the NL in scoring at 3.57 runs per sport. However this dive isn’t a lot concerning the Cardinals as it’s about Goldschmidt, whose offensive profile appears to be like as if it has aged 10 years prior to now two. After going 3-for-4 with a house run off the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow on Opening Day, he went 92 plate appearances (of which simply 12 have been hits) earlier than accumulating his second extra-base hit. He’s as much as 4 now, having doubled each on Wednesday and Saturday.
Nearly all over the place you’d usually search for indicators that issues is probably not that unhealthy for Goldschmidt, they change into fairly unhealthy. His swinging strike price has spiked from 10.8% to 13.3%, his in-zone contact price has plummeted from 79.8% to 74.2%, his chase price has risen from 29.1% to 30.5% — and the gaps are even wider when measured relative to 2022. He’s hanging out in 29.9% of his plate appearances, up from 23.4% final 12 months and 21.7% in 2022. His batted ball stats? All down, from common exit velocity (from 91.3 mph to 89.3) and barrel price (from 11.9% to 4.4%) to hard-hit price (from 50.7% to 36.8%), xSLG (from .491 to .376) and xwOBA (from .367 to .315).
This may very well be only a hunch, one which dates again to spring coaching (he went 6-for-47), or it may very well be an indication that age is catching as much as the seven-time All-Star, who will flip 37 on September 10. His efficiency towards four-seam fastballs doesn’t supply a lot consolation. He slipped from a .303 batting common and .559 slugging proportion towards them in 2022 to .241 AVG/.450 SLG final 12 months, and to date this 12 months is at .229 AVG/.400 SLG; in the meantime, his whiff price towards the pitches has risen from 23.9% in 2022 to 25% final 12 months to 33.3% this 12 months. He’s declined in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric — which grades a participant’s swing selections based mostly on the rely, pitch location, chance of it being a strike, and the injury usually performed on contact in that location — yearly since 2020, from a rating of 29.5 within the pandemic-shortened season to 17.4 final 12 months and 14.8 this 12 months. Digging deeper into SEAGER’s parts, he’s taking extra hittable pitches than earlier than, and swinging at extra unhealthy pitches. That’s not a recipe for achievement.
Close to the tip of March, Goldschmidt acknowledged that spring coaching “type of uncovered some changes that I wanted to make.” Mentioned supervisor Oliver Marmol on the time, “He’s working by some stuff mechanically and from a timing standpoint.”
Possibly Goldschmidt is only a tweak or two away from getting his swing again, and perhaps his latest video games are a optimistic signal; he’s averaged a 100.7 mph exit velocity with a 72.7% hard-hit price on his batted balls over his previous 5 video games, and his rolling xwOBA over his previous 25 PA is again above .400, as it’s when he’s going effectively. Alternatively, perhaps that is the start of the tip for him, at the very least in St. Louis, as he could be a free agent on the finish of this season.
Elsewhere, there’s hardly a scarcity of gamers who’re unexpectedly wallowing under alternative stage by the season’s first month; with 44 out of 183 batting title qualifiers (24%) having entered Monday at or under 0.0 WAR, we’re sure to seek out some stars wandering on the flawed aspect of the tracks. Conserving in thoughts that some key stats like exit velocity, barrel price, swing price, and make contact with price have stabilized (and dealing alphabetically), right here’s a take a look at 4 hitters who significantly stand out to those eyes.
Randy Arozarena (47 wRC+, -0.4 WAR)
Arozarena made his first All-Star staff final 12 months whereas hitting .254/.364/.425 (122 wRC+), however a better look exhibits broad month-to-month swings in his efficiency because the season progressed; he hit for a 36 wRC+ in July (.153/.223/.259), then a 148 wRC+ in August and a 93 wRC+ in September. Within the throes of a 6-for-59 hunch that features hits in back-to-back video games simply as soon as, he’s put up numbers that look rather a lot like final July, batting .152/.226/.257 with three homers however solely two different extra-base hits in 115 PA, each doubles.
Arozarena is swinging and lacking extra usually, with a strikeout price that’s climbed from 23.9% to 27.8%. He’s minimize his chase price considerably (from 30% to 25.4%) however he’s making a lot much less contact within the zone (71.7%, down from 78.9%), and he’s been completely overwhelmed by four-seam fastballs, hitting .074 and slugging .296 towards them; his solely hits towards the heater are a pair of taters, offset by 13 strikeouts and a 35.1% whiff price in 31 PA. For what it’s value, he’s hitting the ball exhausting sufficient to have notched a 90.2 mph common exit velocity, however his barrel price has fallen (from 12.3% to six.8%) and so has his pull price (from 41% to 34.2%).
On that final matter, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola believes that Arozarena’s need to make use of the entire subject extra usually could also be backfiring, saying final week, “He wished to make use of the precise aspect of the sphere somewhat extra usually. It’s in all probability added size in his [swing] path. However you must recognize guys attempting to get higher and enhance. You need to discover, and generally you go down the flawed street.” We’ll need to see if he can refine that strategy extra efficiently, or whether or not reverting to his outdated methods bears extra fruit.
Luis Arraez (107 wRC+, -0.1 WAR)
To be honest, this one is likely to be a little bit of a attain. After successful batting titles in each leagues in 2022 and ’23 and making All-Star groups in every of these seasons, the 27-year-old Arraez is hitting .305/.359/.364, which is definitely above-average manufacturing, however solely superficially helpful. Although he’s by no means been a participant who hits the ball very exhausting, his .059 ISO is the bottom mark of his six-year profession, and he has but to homer. His 85.9 mph common exit velocity and 17.6% hard-hit price are each profession lows — the latter is the second-lowest amongst qualifiers, forward of solely Steven Kwan — and his 1.9% barrel price is simply 0.2% forward of his rookie mark. Even on condition that he had nice success prior to now two seasons with fairly measly Statcast numbers (averaging 88.6 mph, with a 3.5% barrel price and 27.6% hard-hit price), that is pushing it.
For as a lot as we must be cautious about evaluating offense based mostly on small samples, we must be much more so in terms of protection, and but… Arraez’s metrics are so unhealthy that they’re pushing him under alternative stage. His -5 DRS and -6 FRV — that’s Statcast’s all-inclusive Fielding Run Worth, together with each vary and arm metrics — each rank because the majors’ worst, dragging his WAR down. His earlier metrics have been a blended bag (7 DRS, however -6 FRV at second over the previous two seasons), so perhaps this can be a significantly untimely analysis, however on a staff that now owns the majors’ lowest successful proportion (.207, through a 6-23 file) and NL’s lowest scoring price (3.52 runs per sport), he positive isn’t serving to a lot.
Nick Castellanos (39 wRC+, -1.0 WAR)
Once more? This staple of my annual Substitute Degree Killers record has gotten an early bounce on his placement by not solely enjoying horrible protection (we shouldn’t take his -2 DRS and -3 RAA too actually, however it actually matches the sample), but additionally having an particularly unhealthy month on the plate. He’s hitting simply .179/.250/.226 and solely has two extra-base hits (a triple and a homer) in 116 PA. His wRC+ is the second lowest amongst all batting title qualifiers, and his WAR is the bottom amongst all place gamers.
Castellanos has at all times been relatively chase-prone, however his 43.3% chase price is almost 5 factors above his profession mark, and his 59.4% swing price is his highest since his 2013 rookie season, 5.6 factors above his profession mark. His 22.4% strikeout price is a bit under his norm, however his contact has been subpar, along with his 86.9 mph common exit velo and three.6% barrel price each putting within the twenty second percentile. His decline through SEAGER is especially notable; he’s gone from rating sixth within the majors with 25.5 in 2021 (the three.6-WAR, 140 wRC+ season that helped him land a five-year, $100 million contract) to fifteen.4 final 12 months and 12.9 this 12 months, which is barely under the key league common (13.1) however effectively under the place a thumper must be. Apart from sinkers and cutters, he’s struggling towards each pitch sort, and towards the whole lot however these two and four-seam fastballs, he’s batting .121 and slugging .172, with a 43.8% whiff price and a 7.9% — sure, single-digit — hard-hit price. Eek!
Gleyber Torres (68 wRC+, 0.1 WAR)
With homers in three of his previous 5 video games, every of which included a number of hits, Aaron Decide — whom I checked in on final week — is beginning to come round. The identical could also be true for Torres, who collected 5 hits amid the Yankees’ back-to-back 15-run onslaughts towards the Brewers, and snuck to an eyelash above alternative stage. Coming off a season by which he set a profession excessive with 3.8 WAR whereas placing up his finest numbers since 2019 when it comes to wRC+ (123), SLG (.453), and homers (25), he has nonetheless struggled to get out of the gate. Even with the aforementioned mini-outburst, he’s hitting .218/.298/.255; he has but to homer, and has simply three doubles.
A number of issues stand out about Torres. After slicing his strikeout price to a career-low 14.6% final 12 months, he’s as much as 24.8%, his highest mark since his 2018 rookie season; his 10.2-point improve is the fourth highest amongst gamers with at the very least 400 PA final season and 80 to date this season. He’s one other participant who’s getting overwhelmed by four-seamers, hitting simply .120 and slugging .160 down from .275 AVG/.551 SLG final 12 months, with a whiff price that’s spiking from 22.8% to 33.3%. And his .265 xSLG is the bottom of any of the gamers I’ve examined right here. A pending free agent this winter, he’s bought rather a lot at stake. We’ll see if this previous weekend is the beginning of a optimistic development.
