The Padres and Marlins have lined up on a uncommon Could blockbuster. San Diego is reportedly buying two-time batting champ Luis Arraez from Miami for 4 gamers: prospects Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee and Nathan Martorella, in addition to reliever Woo-Suk Go.
Arraez’s tenure in Miami ends after a season and 5 weeks. The Fish swapped Pablo López to the Twins to amass him over the 2022-23 offseason. Arraez performed as much as expectations within the first season. He flirted with .400 for just a few months, and whereas he didn’t preserve that otherworldly tempo, he cruised to a second straight batting title and helped Miami to the playoffs. Arraez completed with a .354/.393/.469 line via 617 plate appearances.
Because the batting titles would recommend, Arraez has developed into maybe the sport’s greatest pure contact hitter. He has walked extra usually than he’s struck out over the course of his profession. The Venezuela native has punched out in solely 7.5% of his plate appearances within the huge leagues. That’s right down to a meager 6.4% clip going again to the beginning of 2022. That leads certified hitters by greater than three proportion factors. Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan is the one different participant to strike out lower than 10% of the time in that span.
Arraez has tallied 148 plate appearances over 33 video games this season. His manufacturing is down barely, as he’s hitting .299/.347/.372 with out a residence run. That’s not a lot of a priority for San Diego. Arraez remains to be making contact at an elite charge. He has by no means been an enormous energy risk, topping out at 10 longballs a yr in the past. It’s unlikely that San Diego feels in another way about Arraez than they did throughout Spring Coaching, once they reportedly made a push for each him and starter Jesús Luzardo.
Going again to the beginning of 2022, Arraez is a .331/.380/.437 hitter in almost 1400 plate appearances. He has hit on the prime of the lineup in Miami and may do the identical with the Padres. San Diego has been utilizing Jurickson Profar within the leadoff spot of late. Whereas Profar’s out to a unbelievable begin to the season, he can slide down just a few spots in a abruptly deeper lineup.
As nice a hitter as Arraez is, his sport isn’t with out flaws. He’s at greatest a fringe defender at second base. Defensive Runs Saved has typically graded him round league common with the glove, although it has soured on his work in 281 innings this season. Statcast has lengthy panned him as a defender, grading him negatively in all however one yr of his profession. Statcast estimates he’s been 24 runs beneath common in almost 2700 profession innings on the keystone.
The Twins performed Arraez extra incessantly at first base again in 2022. He rated higher there defensively, though he doesn’t have the normal energy profile anticipated on the place. That doesn’t appear to be a lot of a problem for the Padres. Incumbent first baseman Jake Cronenworth can be a hit-over-power participant who started his profession within the center infield.
Arraez may see occasional reps at first and second base, however he’s more likely to get the majority of his at-bats as a delegated hitter. The Friars have Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Manny Machado as their projected beginning infield. Machado was restricted to DH for a pair weeks as he recovered from final fall’s elbow surgical procedure. He made his return to 3rd base final Friday, and whereas he has continued shuffling between the new nook and DH since then, he’ll finally work again to on a regular basis third base reps.
Machado’s return to 3rd base would have left the Friars with out a clear on a regular basis choice at designated hitter. Rookie Graham Pauley has gotten some reps there, however he has hit .125/.125/.313 to begin his MLB profession. Arraez ought to solidify that spot whereas nonetheless having sufficient defensive flexibility to permit supervisor Mike Shildt to rotate different infielders via the place once they want a break on protection.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has by no means shied away from pursuing star expertise, so it’s not significantly shocking that they’d keep watch over Arraez. The timing of the commerce, although, is a stunner. It’s extremely uncommon to see gamers of that caliber moved this early right into a season. Maybe the most effective current comparability is the Could 21, 2021 swap that despatched Willy Adames and Trevor Richards from the Rays to the Brewers for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen.
Peter Bendix was serving as Tampa Bay’s common supervisor (#2 within the entrance workplace hierarchy) on the time of the Adames deal. He’s now in command of baseball operations in Miami. Bendix is evidently not averse to creating a significant splash at an atypical time if the chance presents itself.
The Marlins adopted up a quiet offseason with a fully horrible April. They enter this weekend’s collection in Oakland with a 9-24 report. No matter slim probability that they had of repeating final yr’s shocking playoff berth has all however evaporated. Miami was going to be a deadline vendor, so there’s sense in shifting early if one other crew put the appropriate provide on the desk.
Miami felt that was the case with a four-player return centered round San Diego’s 2023 first-rounder. The Padres chosen Head twenty fifth general out of an Illinois highschool. A left-handed hitting middle fielder, he break up his first skilled season between rookie ball and Low-A. Head ranked eighth amongst San Diego prospects at Baseball America and fifth on Keith Legislation’s organizational write-up at The Athletic.
Each retailers credit score Head with wonderful pace and the possibility to be a plus defensive middle fielder at his peak. BA writes that he’s more likely to be a contact-oriented offensive participant with out a ton of energy, however Legislation wrote that skilled scouts had been impressed by the bat pace he confirmed after being drafted. Head has spent his age-19 season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. He’s out to a comparatively sluggish begin, hitting .237/.317/.366 with a 24% strikeout charge.
Whereas Head is a long-term growth play, Marsee has an outdoor shot at attending to the massive leagues in 2024. A sixth-round pick of Central Michigan two years in the past, he dramatically improved his inventory with a .274/.413/.428 displaying between Excessive-A and Double-A final season. Marsee adopted up with a large efficiency within the Arizona Fall League. There was even some hypothesis he may compete for the Opening Day middle subject spot, nevertheless it shortly grew to become clear that Jackson Merrill was above him in that dialogue.
Marsee, 23, ranked between tenth and twelfth on the respective organizational prospect lists at BA and The Athletic. He’s credited with superior plate self-discipline and instincts however with out a ton of energy potential. Marsee has performed nearly solely middle subject within the minors and sure tasks as a fourth outfielder. He has spent this season at Double-A San Antonio, the place has slumped to a .187/.337/.333 slash via his first 22 video games.
Martorella, who can be 23, was a fifth-round pick of Cal in that 2022 draft. The left-handed hitter has a profession .269/.373/.447 batting line in almost 800 skilled plate appearances. He’s out to a superb .294/.392/.435 begin with a pair of homers and 6 doubles via 102 journeys to the plate in San Antonio. Martorella is proscribed to first base or designated hitter, so he’ll have to hit lots to be an everyday, however he has proven a well-rounded offensive profile in professional ball.
Rounding out the return is Go, whom the Padres simply signed out of Korea final winter. San Diego inked the 25-year-old righty to a two-year, $4.5MM deal. He’s taking part in this season on a $1.75MM wage. He’ll make $2.25MM subsequent yr and is assured a $500K buyout on a $3MM mutual choice for 2026. As is the case with most gamers signed out of a overseas skilled league, his contract stipulates that he return to free company on the finish of the deal despite the fact that he’ll be effectively shy of six years of MLB service.
Go has but to pitch within the main leagues. The Padres optioned him to Double-A after he struggled in Spring Coaching. He has tossed 12 2/3 innings there, permitting seven runs (six earned) on 14 hits. Go has fanned 15 hitters whereas issuing 4 walks. He was a more in-depth for the KBO’s LG Twins earlier than making the bounce to MLB. He turned in a 3.18 ERA over components of seven KBO seasons. Go missed loads of bats in Korea however struggled to constantly throw strikes. Scouting reviews earlier than his signing typically advised he projected as a center reliever on the MLB degree.
It’s the primary of what’s more likely to be a handful of trades for the Marlins over the subsequent few months. Miami appears set to kick off at the very least a retool, if not a full-scale rebuild. Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are amongst various gamers whom the Fish may put available on the market. It’s unlikely the Arraez commerce will open the floodgates three months earlier than the deadline, nevertheless it’s clear Miami is already keen to have interaction in conversations.
Making trades effectively prematurely of the deadline would additionally enable the Marlins to dump a higher portion of gamers’ contracts. Budgetary constraints are all the time current for a franchise that yearly runs payrolls within the backside third of the league. Miami primarily sat out free company till taking a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson (which hasn’t labored out) firstly of Spring Coaching.
Arraez was one of many higher-paid gamers on the roster. He’s making $10.6MM this season after shedding an arbitration case in February — the second straight yr he and the crew went to a listening to. Round $8.5MM is but to be paid. Assuming there are not any money issues concerned, they’ll offload that however assume round $1.4MM of Go’s wage. That quantities to only over $7MM in financial savings. The crew’s estimated participant payroll now sits round $92MM, as calculated by RosterResource.
The Padres take up that cash, which is not any small matter for a crew that spent many of the offseason slicing spending. RosterResource estimates their precise participant payroll round $174MM. Their aggressive steadiness tax quantity is much larger, reflecting their slate of backloaded contracts. RosterResource calculates their CBT within the $232MM vary. They’re round $4.5MM beneath this yr’s $237MM base threshold, a marker they had been reluctant to cross final winter.
A crew’s CBT calculation isn’t decided till the tip of the season. This certainly isn’t the final of the Padres’ commerce exercise. Their deadline route may go in various methods relying on how the crew performs over the subsequent few months. It’s not even out of the query the Padres fall out of the race and put Arraez again on the commerce block in July, although that’s certainly not what the entrance workplace at present intends.
Even when Arraez finishes the 2024 season in San Diego, he could possibly be a commerce candidate subsequent offseason. He’ll undergo arbitration as soon as extra earlier than hitting free company throughout the 2025-26 offseason. The 2-time All-Star is more likely to command a wage within the $14-16MM vary for his ultimate yr of membership management. The Padres may ostensibly plug him in at second base and transfer Bogaerts again to shortstop if Kim departs as a free agent, however that’s not one thing with which the crew will concern itself within the brief time period.
For now, they’ll plug Arraez on the prime of the lineup as they push for a playoff spot. They’ll get just a few extra months of manufacturing than they’d’ve had they waited to make a standard deadline transfer, albeit at the price of a trio of mid-level prospects and round three-quarters of Arraez’s 2024 wage. There might not be any extra big strikes within the subsequent couple weeks, nevertheless it’s a precursor to what needs to be busy summers in each South Florida and Southern California.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres had been nearing settlement on an Arraez deal for 3 prospects and a reliever. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic confirmed there was an Arraez commerce in place. Craig Mish of SportsGrid was first to report the Marlins’ return.
Photos courtesy of USA At this time Sports activities.
