The Padres noticed their season come to an finish final evening by the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, however regardless of that disappointing finish the 2024 marketing campaign was nonetheless suffering from loads of shiny spots for followers in San Diego. Maybe essentially the most important amongst these was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Coaching as a shortstop prospect with simply 46 video games on the Double-A stage underneath his belt and turned a shock Opening Day project in middle subject into an exceptional rookie season.
Earlier than that sensational season got here collectively, nonetheless, it appears the Padres have been already hoping to lock within the teenager’s providers for the lengthy haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier at the moment revealed that San Diego brass mentioned the potential for an extension with Merrill final offseason, earlier than the teenager had even made his MLB debut. The perimeters, after all, didn’t wind up coming collectively on a deal. That didn’t cease the Padres from putting in Merrill in middle subject to kick off the season, nonetheless, and Merrill rewarded his membership’s confidence in him with a season that noticed him seem in 156 video games whereas slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 makes an attempt, and a 130 wRC+.
Merrill’s debut season, throughout which he was simply 21 years previous, was the kind of marketing campaign that conjures up confidence in a younger gamers skill to provide on the massive league stage. In spite of everything, Merrill confirmed off a formidable and diverse profile that ought to assist him proceed to influence the Padres in all kinds of the way going ahead. The teenager not solely flashed spectacular energy with a .208 ISO that was second to solely Aaron Choose amongst certified middle fielders this 12 months, however he additionally struck out at a wonderful 17% clip that was second to solely Cody Bellinger by that very same metric. And whereas his protection didn’t obtain the common reward lauded on gamers like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Common on the place put him within the 97th percentile amongst massive leaguers and made him the seventh most useful defensive middle fielder within the sport by the metric.
That mixture of energy, contact, and protection at a precious up-the-middle place would make Merrill figures to depart Merrill as a wildly enticing extension candidate, notably on condition that he’s at the moment scheduled to succeed in free company after his age-26 marketing campaign. With that being stated, the value of extending a teenager of Merrill’s expertise is bound to have gone up for the Padres relative to final winter now that he’s confirmed he can deal with massive league pitching. A have a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how profitable even one dominant season within the massive leagues may be, as each Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions within the closing months of their respective Rookie of the 12 months campaigns.
Whereas the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes may complicate Merrill’s personal pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the midst of Acuna’s 4.4 determine and Rodriguez’s 5.8, although it’s price noting that Acuna was a 12 months youthful than both Rodriguez or Merrill throughout his rookie season. Given his similarity to these children, it appears cheap to anticipate that Merrill would garner a assure properly above the $100MM Acuna landed even when Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM assure isn’t precisely the only level of comparability.
For San Diego’s half, they’ve definitely proven a willingness to spend closely on extensions for younger gamers prior to now. The obvious instance of that is the $340MM deal the membership made with Fernando Tatis Jr. previous to his third season with the membership, although Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed simply earlier than the beginning of the 2023 season is one other noteworthy instance of the membership committing to a long-term extension for a participant with a number of years of workforce management remaining. In fact, each of these offers got here collectively underneath the possession of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres started to cut back their payroll final 12 months following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the position of interim management particular person.
Extending Merrill may even have a big influence on the membership’s luxurious tax payroll going ahead. For the reason that luxurious tax is calculated primarily based on common annual worth, back-loaded extensions such because the one signed by Tatis early in his profession or a hypothetical Merrill extension usually have a much more important influence on a membership’s luxurious tax positioning than they do on the membership’s precise payroll within the early years of the deal. That might show to be an impediment for the Padres, who per RosterResource at the moment have a assured payroll of simply over $231MM for 2025 earlier than factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for gamers like Luis Arraez and Michael King.
