Oh where, oh where has the Seattle Seahawks homefield advantage gone?

It’s nonetheless loud when the Seattle Seahawks are internet hosting a hated foe, on a roll, or actually really want a cease on protection. However the hosts should not successful at Lumen Area like they did a decade or two in the past in Qwest and on the CLink. As tempting as it’s accountable the title change, absolutely one thing extra significant is (ahem) loomin’ underneath the floor. Get it? Loomin’? Get it!?

The Seahawks’ latest uptick in residence losses does ship me questioning if their long-vaunted residence discipline benefit has been neutered considerably, and if that’s the case, in what particular methods? Or is that only a persistent fable, buttressed by affirmation bias, which take a look at the numbers will refute?

Not a fable: the HFA in Seattle positively was game-changing method again when

Invoice Barnwell of ESPN calculated some stuff in 2013. This was the good things, earlier than it grew to become much less great things.

5 factors of HFA. Miss these days. Additionally, be happy to note the presence of all 4 NFC West groups within the high eight. Barnwell’s follow-up evaluation after the 2016 season yielded an virtually an identical consequence, with Seattle on high once more at +5.1 factors.

This unmatched stage of dominance supercharged a 34-6 run at residence from 2012 by way of 2016, primarily blemished by the Cardinals in December, might their souls rot within the sixth circle of hell, amen. Oh, however then, the Seahawks’ residence document since 2018 suffers a tragic downgrade, all the way in which to a really pedestrian 25-16. Together with a positively putrid 8-9 mark within the final two years. Since followers returned to the stands post-COVID precautions, the house crowd right here has watched extra defeats than victories, yikes.

Numerous latest analyses have due to this fact positioned Seattle within the second division of homefields. Often you’ll even see us close to the underside, like so:

Although NFL Crew Rankings is a little bit kinder to the Seahawks than the twenty ninth place Patton calculates, you hate to see them in seventeenth place, coupled with zero wins in 2022 towards above common groups. Has our palace develop into only a place?

Methodology vs. Mythology

The purpose of this put up isn’t to check the previous few Seahawks seasons to the LOB years. All that may display is that the roster’s present defensive expertise is decrease. Which, no duh, proper? Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril aren’t on the 2023 workforce. And we do love Wagz, however realistically, at this time’s model of him is a complete decade older. The Quandre Diggs-Jamal Adams duo is lots of issues nevertheless it isn’t Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. Tariq Woolen isn’t an All-Professional. (But.)

The purpose of this put up is to see if the latest Seahawks have nonetheless performed considerably higher at residence; and if that’s the case, has that benefit approached the five-point enhance they loved again within the heyday of standard division crowns and convention titles? So we’ll look at seven stats for the 2018-2022 groups:

House defensive EPA vs. highway efficiency
House level differential vs. highway (similar methodology as Barnwell)
House sacks vs. highway
House defensive factors per play vs. highway
House offensive factors per play vs. highway
Occasions opponents exceeded their annual scoring common in Seattle
% of season’s losses that got here at residence. In the long run, a real residence discipline benefit exists provided that you journey it to residence victories.

Subsequently, six charts, six takeaways, and a ultimate conclusion await. May need one other cup of [insert beverage] for the ramblin’ highway forward.

(Ultimate notice: I excluded each impartial web site video games, London in 2019 and Munich in 2022, in addition to playoff video games, wherein the Seahawks went 1-3 on the highway and 0-1 at residence.)

CHART 1

In what might be come a theme, 2019 was a horrendous yr for the protection at residence. 2021 finally ends up mainly a wash, and within the different three years of our pattern, you do see the Seahawks outperform their highway selves at residence. EPA reveals an general small benefit to enjoying at residence over the entire five-year interval — it’s price about 12 anticipated factors each season on common. But it surely’s clear there is no such thing as a constant lasting benefit carrying over from season to season.

Verdict: Slight HFA exists.

CHART 2

It was gorgeous to be reminded {that a}) the 2021 workforce had a constructive level differential, and b) that it was superior to the 2022 squad’s.

So right here sit the Seahawks, higher at residence once more in yearly besides an appalling 2019. Minus -24 at residence means they had been 55 factors higher on the highway that season, or roughly a landing and further level per recreation.

Undoubtedly positively gone are the salad days of 5 factors a recreation Barnwell found utilizing this similar methodology. In the event you mix all 5 years you get 1.4 factors’ price of residence discipline. Not even Vegas’ conventional three factors. Blame 2019 once more in order for you, nevertheless it’s not like that yr didn’t occur.

Verdict: Gentle HFA.

CHART 3

Slicing to the chase, you’ve obtained 2.5 sacks each residence recreation and a couple of.2 on the highway general. The low level? That cursed 2019 marketing campaign, the place the Seahawks averaged a paltry 1.5 sacks per residence recreation.

There’s a lift within the move rush at residence, and it’s a comparatively robust one too, ONCE YOU EXCLUDE 2019. Which can or will not be honest, after all, nevertheless it’s wonderful how nicely sacks correlate to residence wins. In seasons the Seahawks averaged above 2 sacks per recreation at residence, they had been 18-7. In seasons they averaged much less, they ended up 7-9. (Jeff Fisher smiles from the USFL or XFL, or wherever.)

Thus far, I’m impressed at how nicely the house discipline benefit holds up on the stat sheet yearly besides that one.

Verdict: Slight HFA.

CHARTS 4 AND 5

The offense performs higher at residence 4 out of 5 years, with a bizarre exception for 2022. One thing to watch.

The protection finally ends up with a house enhance in two seasons (2020, 2022), a house penalty in two others (2019, 2021), and one season of even efficiency (2018). No one needs to be shocked to search out out that the .473 quantity in 2019 was second worst in all the NFL. Each snap, the opponent scored half some extent.

(I stated I wasn’t going to do that, however for reference, the 2013 Seahawks gave up underneath 1 / 4 of some extent per snap, .235, so by this metric they had been twice nearly as good because the 2019 debacle.)

Verdict: HFA exists for offense, not for protection.

CHART 6

OK, right here is much more of the identical, together with that dip precisely if you guessed. It’s obvious that groups had little bother matching their scoring common when touring right here. Roughly half the time they exceeded it, roughly half the time they fell quick. However I’m going to therapeutic massage a small narrative out of the info and cheat the tiniest quantity, for impact. Take out the ultimate three video games of 2022, and also you’ve obtained a 32-game stretch the place precisely 16 instances, the guests outplayed their common.

Touring to Seattle from September 2018 by way of December 2022? As typically as not, you’ll play nicely. That’s not what followers need to be saying about their residence discipline. May as nicely be a impartial location at that time.

A part of the issue was an egregious collection of residence performances mid-sample, throughout which the Seahawks gave up 26 or extra factors 11 instances in a row on the CLink. Sure, eleven straight instances. They. Have been. Not. Stopping. Anybody.

Verdict: No HFA.

CHART 7

As befits a workforce who permits opposing offenses to behave usually, the 2018-2022 Seahawks misplaced extra video games in Seattle (16) than on the highway (15). I suppose we should always’ve foreseen the house “upset” to the Rams within the 2020 playoffs in spite of everything.

The truth is, since 2018 the Seahawks are a .610 residence workforce and .615 on the highway.

Verdict: No HFA when followers are current.

Assorted parting ideas and summaries

A blended bag above, to make sure. One abstract: In 4 of seven classes chosen, the Seahawks did profit from enjoying at residence, in three others they didn’t. Most telling after all is the truth that wins and losses are within the second group. No matter statistical benefit they earned didn’t present up within the standings.

As a season ticket holder, I’m at virtually each recreation and might report that noise isn’t appreciably completely different now than fifteen or 5 years in the past. Not sufficient to swing outcomes, for my part. Thrilling video games are thrilling video games; opposing followers aren’t a much bigger share of the gang; we nonetheless hate the division rivals with a righteous hearth.

Second summation: “Slight benefit since 2018 general, pulled down by an virtually inexplicably unhealthy collection of residence begins in 2019.”

How unhealthy? The Seahawks led at halftime solely as soon as all yr at residence. They led going into the fourth quarter solely as soon as. That’s one method to go about splitting your property video games, as a result of irrespective of how a lot you preach the significance of ending, you may solely dig your self out of a gap so many instances.

Actually nuts that on the morning of December 3, 2019, the Seahawks awoke 10-2, recent off an enormous MNF win. They’d simply prevailed in a Week 13 shootout with the Vikings, an exhilarating 37-30 come-from behind residence victory. They’d the prospect to be particular. Three division losses later, the dream was all however over, ready to formally die within the divisional spherical at Lambeau Area.

Just a little little bit of residence discipline benefit would’ve come in useful that season. Which brings up a much bigger query, particularly, have NFL groups generally misplaced any enhance from enjoying in their very own digs? As at all times, the reply is extra sophisticated than one paragraph. Possibly it’ll take two and a set of bullet factors.

Within the final 20 years, residence groups have received 56 p.c or extra of their video games 16 instances. That’s the same old order of issues. However three out of these situations they’ve failed to take action got here consecutively, in 2019 by way of 2021. Witness:

Pre-pandemic: .520
the COVID yr: .504
after which once more post-pandemic: .511, the second-worst efficiency ever.

Which might counsel a pattern, till the league bounced proper again in 2022 with a way more traditional-looking .556 residence win share. Widespread theories of higher offensive recreation plans to neutralize move rush, extra trendy psychological preparation, and even decreased fan fervor are all on maintain now. Are we in an period of highway groups studying easy methods to neutralize the journey issue? Or has the pendulum swung again to residence groups once more? Which path the subsequent couple seasons lead us might be very instructive certainly — on a macro stage for the NFL, and a maddening micro stage for our Seahawks.